1. 9 © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair The Government and Fiscal Policy Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano Appendix A: Deriving the Fiscal Policy Multipliers Appendix B: The Case in Which Tax Revenues Depend on Income

2. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 2 of 35 Government in the Economy Nothing arouses as much controversy as the role of government in the economy. Government can affect the macroeconomy in two ways: Fiscal policy is the manipulation of government spending and taxation. Monetary policy refers to the behavior of the Federal Reserve regarding the nation’s money supply.

3. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 3 of 35 Government in the Economy Discretionary fiscal policy refers to deliberate changes in taxes or spending. The government can not control certain aspects of the economy related to fiscal policy. For example: The government can control tax rates but not tax revenue. Tax revenue depends on household income and the size of corporate profits. Government spending depends on government decisions and the state of the economy.

4. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 4 of 35 Net Taxes (T), and Disposable Income (Y d ) Net taxes are taxes paid by firms and households to the government minus transfer payments made to households by the government. Disposable, or after-tax, income (Y d ) equals total income minus taxes.

5. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 5 of 35 The Budget Deficit A government’s budget deficit is the difference between what it spends (G) and what it collects in taxes (T) in a given period: If G exceeds T, the government must borrow from the public to finance the deficit. It does so by selling Treasury bonds and bills. In this case, a part of household saving (S) goes to the government.

6. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 6 of 35 Adding Taxes to the Consumption Function The aggregate consumption function is now a function of disposable, or after-tax, income.

7. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 7 of 35 Equilibrium Output: Y = C + I + G Finding Equilibrium for I = 100, G = 100, and T = 100 (All Figures in Billions of Dollars) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10) OUTPUT (INCOME) Y NET TAXES T DISPOSABLE INCOME Y d / Y  T CONSUMPTION SPENDING (C = 100 +.75 Y d ) SAVING S (Y d – C) PLANNED INVESTMENT SPENDING I GOVERNMENT PURCHASES G PLANNED AGGREGATE EXPENDITURE C + I + G UNPLANNED INVENTORY CHANGE Y  (C + I + G) ADJUSTMENT TO DISEQUILIBRIUM 300100200250  50 100 450  150 Output 8 500100400 0100 600  100 Output 8 70010060055050100 750  50 Output 8 900100800700100 9000Equilibrium 1,1001001,000850150100 1,050+ 50 Output 9 1,3001001,2001,000200100 1,200+ 100 Output 9 1,5001001,4001,150250100 1,350+ 150 Output 9

8. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 8 of 35 The Government Spending Multiplier The government spending multiplier is the ratio of the change in the equilibrium level of output to a change in government spending.

9. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 9 of 35 The Government Spending Multiplier Finding Equilibrium After a $50 Billion Government Spending Increase (All Figures in Billions of Dollars; G Has Increased From 100 in Table 25.1 to 150 Here) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10) OUTPUT (INCOME) Y NET TAXES T DISPOSABLE INCOME Y d / Y  T CONSUMPTION SPENDING (C = 100 +.75 Y d ) SAVING S (Y d – C) PLANNED INVESTMENT SPENDING I GOVERNMENT PURCHASES G PLANNED AGGREGATE EXPENDITURE C + I + G UNPLANNED INVENTORY CHANGE Y  (C + I + G) ADJUSTMENT TO DISEQUILIBRIUM 300100200250  50 100150500  200 Output 8 500100400 0100150650  150 Output 8 70010060055050100150800  100 Output 8 900100800700100 150950  50 Output 8 1,1001001,0008501501001501,1000Equilibrium 1,3001001,2001,0002001001501,250+ 50 Output 9

10. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 10 of 35 The Government Spending Multiplier

11. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 11 of 35 The Tax Multiplier A tax cut increases disposable income, and leads to added consumption spending. Income will increase by a multiple of the decrease in taxes. A tax cut has no direct impact on spending. The multiplier for a change in taxes is smaller than the multiplier for a change in government spending.

12. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 12 of 35 The Tax Multiplier

13. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 13 of 35 The Balanced-Budget Multiplier The balanced-budget multiplier is the ratio of change in the equilibrium level of output to a change in government spending where the change in government spending is balanced by a change in taxes so as not to create any deficit.

14. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 14 of 35 The Balanced-Budget Multiplier Finding Equilibrium After a $200 Billion Balanced Budget Increase in G and T (All Figures in Billions of Dollars; G and T Have Increased From 100 in Table 25.1 to 300 Here) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9) OUTPUT (INCOME) Y NET TAXES T DISPOSABLE INCOME Y d / Y  T CONSUMPTION SPENDING (C = 100 +.75 Y d ) PLANNED INVESTMENT SPENDING I GOVERNMENT PURCHASES G PLANNED AGGREGATE EXPENDITURE C + I + G UNPLANNED INVENTORY CHANGE Y  (C + I + G) ADJUSTMENT TO DISEQUILIBRIUM 500300200250100300650  150 Output 8 700300400 100300800  100 Output 8 900300600550100300950  50 Output 8 1,1003008007001003001,1000Equilibrium 1,3003001,0008501003001,250+ 50 Output 9 1,5003001,2001,0001003001,400+ 100 Output 9

15. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 15 of 35 Fiscal Policy Multipliers Summary of Fiscal Policy Multipliers POLICY STIMULUSMULTIPLIER FINAL IMPACT ON EQUILIBRIUM Y Government- spending multiplier Increase or decrease in the level of government purchases: Tax multiplierIncrease or decrease in the level of net taxes: Balanced- budget multiplier Simultaneous balanced-budget increase or decrease in the level of government purchases and net taxes: 1

16. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 16 of 35 The Federal Budget The federal budget is the budget of the federal government. The difference between the federal government’s receipts and its expenditures is the federal surplus (+) or deficit (-).

17. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 17 of 35 The Federal Budget Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures, 2000 (Billions of Dollars) AMOUNT PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL Receipts Personal taxes1,010.149.6 Corporate taxes193.29.5 Indirect business taxes111.05.5 Contributions for social insurance720.635.4 Total2,034.9100.0 Current Expenditures Consumption514.126.9 Transfer payments831.943.6 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments274.214.4 Net interest payments236.912.4 Net subsidies of government enterprises52.52.7 Total1,909.6100.0 Current Surplus (+) or deficit (  ) (Receipts  Current Expenditures) + 125.3 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

18. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 18 of 35 The Federal Government Surplus (+) or Deficit (-) as a Percentage of GDP, 1970 I  2003 II

19. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 19 of 35 The Debt The federal debt is the total amount owed by the federal government. The debt is the sum of all accumulated deficits minus surpluses over time. Some of the federal debt is held by the U.S. government itself and some by private individuals. The privately held federal debt is the private (non- government-owned) portion of the federal debt.

20. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 20 of 35 The Federal Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP, 1970 I  2003 II The percentage began to fall in the mid 1990s.

21. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 21 of 35 The Economy’s Influence on the Government Budget Automatic stabilizers are revenue and expenditure items in the federal budget that automatically change with the state of the economy in such a way as to stabilize GDP.

22. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 22 of 35 The Economy’s Influence on the Government Budget Fiscal drag is the negative effect on the economy that occurs when average tax rates increase because taxpayers have moved into higher income brackets during an expansion.

23. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 23 of 35 The Economy’s Influence on the Government Budget The full-employment budget is what the federal budget would be if the economy were producing at a full-employment level of output.

24. C H A P T E R 9: The Government and Fiscal Policy © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair 24 of 35 The Economy’s Influence on the Government Budget The cyclical deficit is the deficit that occurs because of a downturn in the business cycle. The structural deficit is the deficit that remains at full employment.