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Water Balance/Operations Modeling Yuba River Development Project FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Wednesday, May 9, 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Water Balance/Operations Modeling Yuba River Development Project FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Wednesday, May 9, 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Water Balance/Operations Modeling Yuba River Development Project FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Wednesday, May 9, 2012

2 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Meeting Objectives  Review previous discussions  Modeling Approach  Present Model  Model Validation  Base Case Scenario  Yuba River Development Project Model

3 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Model Validation  Evaluation of model logic and hydrology against historical requirements and demands  Lower Yuba River has been subject to several regulatory conditions over last 10 years  Yuba River Development Project has operated to meet increasing irrigation demands over the last 10 years  New Bullards Bar operational approach has changed over last 10 years  YCWA has conducted multiple transfers in recent years  Conducted detailed evaluation of last 3 years  Conducted high-level evaluation of past 10 years

4 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Model Validation  Considered:  Our House and Log Cabin dams operations  New Bullards Bar Reservoir storage  Flows below New Bullards Bar Reservoir  Colgate Powerhouse flows  Narrows 1 and 2 powerhouses releases  Daguerre Point Dam Deliveries  Flows at Marysville gage  Powerhouse generation

5 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Flow below Our House Dam

6 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Lohman Ridge Tunnel Flow

7 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Flow below Log Cabin Dam

8 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Camptonville Tunnel Flow

9 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Mean Annual Flow at Our House and Log Cabin Dam Gages LocationHistoricalModeledDifference% Difference 3 Year10 Year3 Year10 Year3 Year10 Year3 Year10 Year 1140888052.099.648.579.23.520.47%21% 11408870159.4165.5163.0185.9(3.5)(20.4)-2%-12% 1140940011.215.78.312.22.93.526%22% 11409350189.4204.9196.0229.3(6.6)(24.4)-3%-12%

10 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing New Bullards Bar Reservoir Target Storage

11 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing New Bullards Bar Reservoir Storage 3-Year Validation

12 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing New Bullards Bar Reservoir Storage 10-Year Validation

13 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Flow below New Bullards Bar Dam

14 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Colgate Powerhouse Releases

15 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Colgate Powerhouse Releases Summer of 2008 with weekends shaded

16 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Mean Annual Colgate Powerhouse Release LocationHistoricalModeledDifference% Difference 3 Year10 Year3 Year10 Year3 Year10 Year3 Year10 Year 114135101,011.21,206.4 1,069.0 1,250.2 (57.8) (43.8)-6%-4% 1141350 plus Low Outlet 1,060.01,221.0 1,069.0 1,250.2 (9.0) (29.1)-1%-2%

17 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Flow below Englebright Dam 3-Year Validation

18 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Narrows 2 Powerhouse Releases 3-Year Validation

19 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Narrows 1 Powerhouse Releases 3-Year Validation

20 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Mean Annual Flow Below Englebright Dam LocationHistoricalModeledDifference% Difference 3 Year10 Year3 Year10 Year3 Year10 Year3 Year10 Year 11408880 1,496.5 1,937.9 1,551.4 1,991.8 (54.9) (53.9)-4%-3% (water year 20007 data not available from USGS - YCWA records used) 11417980 1,090.6 1,372.8 919.4 1,077.8 171.2 295.016%21% 11417970 378.8 258.2 586.5 611.6 (207.7) (353.4)-55%-137%

21 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Daguerre Point Dam Deliveries

22 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Flow at Marysville Gage

23 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Colgate Powerhouse Generation

24 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Narrows 2 Powerhouse Generation

25 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Mean Annual Generation LocationHistoricalModeledDifference% Difference 3 Year10 Year3 Year10 Year3 Year10 Year3 Year10 Year Colgate2,303.52,806.82,466.22,858.6(162.7)(51.8)-7%-2% Narrows 2369.0507.9317.4376.051.6131.814%26%

26 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Base Case Scenario  Handout

27 Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing Yuba River Development Project Model  Version 1.1 on CD  YRDP Model v1.1.xlsm  YRDPM Input Hydrology 20120530.dss  YRDPM Validation Input Hydrology 2001-2010 20120516.dss  YRDP Validation Output.dss  YRDPM v1.1 Base Case 20120614.dss  Operations Modeling Assumptions 20120614.pdf  Hydrology Report 20120614.docx  Validation Report 20120614.docx  HEC-DSS_Excel_Data_Exchange_Add-In_For_Excel_2007- 2010_v321.exe

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