1. The new EPAs – comparative analysis of contents and challenges for 2008 Christopher Stevens, Mareike Meyn, and Jane Kennan

2. The new EPAs: comparative analysis - TIPS, 6 March 20082 Overview 1.Which southern African countries have signed an EPA? 2.What do the liberalisation schedules say?  EAC  ESA  SADC 3.What are possible consequences for regional integration?

3. The new EPAs: comparative analysis - TIPS, 6 March 20083 1. The EPA signatories  35 of 77 ACP countries initialled an EPA  Except CARIFORUM all EPA configurations lost members  Most non-signatories benefit from EBA except six Pacific and three African non-LDCs  Mainly ‘interim EPAs’ with ‘sub-regions’  In Central Africa only Cameroon initialled  In West Africa two countries initialled separate agreements  In Southern and Eastern Africa the picture is most complex  Negotiations continue in 2008. Objective: comprehensive, regional EPAs

4. 2 3 1 1. SADC EPA 2. ESA EPA 3. EAC 5

5. The new EPAs: comparative analysis - TIPS, 6 March 20085 Original EPA configurations and signatory states in southern and eastern Africa

6. The new EPAs: comparative analysis - TIPS, 6 March 20086 2. What do the liberalisation schedules say? East African Community (EAC)  Only region where all countries have identical schedule based on EAC CET  25 years (2 years moratorium)  Regional exclusion basket of about 20% of EU import value  3 tranches; ‘real’ liberalisation only starts in 2015  Revenue impact will be faced in the middle of the implementation period (2015-23) and will be significant  Not all countries have yet applied EAC CET  Most products will be liberalised in this period  Consumer/producer effects will be end loaded

7. The new EPAs: comparative analysis - TIPS, 6 March 20087 2. What do the liberalisation schedules say? Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA)  5 of 15 Countries have established individual liberalisation schedules in relation to COMESA CET  Liberalisation occurs in 15 years (5 years moratorium)  2008-2013: tariff reduction to meet COMESA three bands tariffs  Countries never agreed a formal definition that allocated the items in the nomenclature according to the groups  Chromium and thallium waste  Mauritius and Comoros: raw material  Seychelles: intermediate  Madagascar and Zimbabwe : final

8. The new EPAs: comparative analysis - TIPS, 6 March 20088 2. What do the liberalisation schedules say? Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA)  Exclusion basket differs between 2.5 to about 20% of EU import value among the countries  Revenue impact will be faced in the first tranche and will be very different among the countries  Depends to what extent country’s tariff differs from COMESA CET  Whether tariffs can be replaced by sales tax  Consequences for regional integration?  Review of EPA commitments in light of COMESA CET becomes extremely difficult

9. The new EPAs: comparative analysis - TIPS, 6 March 20089 2. What do the liberalisation schedules say? Southern African Development Community (SADC)  5 of 8 countries established 2 liberalisation schedules  Liberalisation over 10 years, no moratorium  Exclusion baskets  Mozambique: large exclusion basket about 38% of EU import value (2004-2006)  BLNS: nobody knows… Theory: TDCA exclusion basket plus small number of BLNS sensitive products should mirror BLNS EPA exclusion basket Practice: Impossible to compare TDCA (negative list) with EPA (positive list)  BLNS are de facto implementing TDCA

10. The new EPAs: comparative analysis - TIPS, 6 March 200810 Summary of liberalisation schedules SADCESAEAC Total time of liberalisation 10 years15 years25 years Liberalisation start 200820132010 Exclusion list (average value of EU imports 2004-06) x – 37.8%2.5 – 20.1%19.7% Regional approach Partly (BLNS)NoYes Review of tariff concessions for RI Yes (to include Moz) Yes (based on COMESA CET) No

11. The new EPAs: comparative analysis - TIPS, 6 March 200811 In summary  EAC is the only regional EPA in Africa  EAC and ESA have a 2-5 years moratorium before EPA liberalisation commitments start  ‘Real’ liberalisation only starts in 2013 (ESA) and 2015 (EAC) but ‘customs union’ effect kicks in before  The EPA liberalisation challenges for BLNS are minor  TDCA determines their market opening  The consequences of EPAs for regional integration in southern Africa are twofold  EAC: EPAs might support the implementation of CET  COMESA/SADC: EPAs have de facto split-up the region

12. The new EPAs: comparative analysis - TIPS, 6 March 200812 How EPAs shaped regional integration in southern Africa: the status quo ESA EPA Botswana Lesotho Namibia Swaziland SADC EPA Mozambique EAC EPA Kenya Uganda Burundi Rwanda Tanzania Malawi Madagascar Comoros Zambia Mauritius Zimbabwe Djibouti Angola South AfricaEritreaEthiopia Sudan

13. The new EPAs – comparative analysis of contents and challenges for 2008 Christopher Stevens, Mareike Meyn, and Jane Kennan