1. Quantifying natural and technological disaster impact Methodology and applications CRED, University of Louvain, Belgium Femke Vos 2 July 2009 – Copenhagen

2. Overview RESEARCH FRAMEWORK AT CRED EM-DAT DATABASE GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN DISASTER STATISTICS MICRODIS PRIORITIES IN RESEARCH ONGOING ACTIVITIES AND FUTURE PROJECTS

3. CRED Natural Disaster Research Natural Disaster Research Civil Conflict Research Civil Conflict Research Training and Capacity Building (e.g. APHES Summer Course) Training and Capacity Building (e.g. APHES Summer Course) Database and information support (e.g. EM-DAT, CE-DAT) Database and information support (e.g. EM-DAT, CE-DAT)

4. Emergency Events Database, created in 1988 Emergency Events Database, created in 1988 Project funded by OFDA/USAID Project funded by OFDA/USAID Occurrence and impacts of over 18,000 natural and Occurrence and impacts of over 18,000 natural and technological disasters from 1900 until present technological disasters from 1900 until present Objective: Objective: Provide evidence-base to humanitarian and Provide evidence-base to humanitarian and development actors at national and international levels: development actors at national and international levels: scientific research with a development agenda scientific research with a development agenda What is EM-DAT?

5. Transparent conventions regarding data sources and internal protocolTransparent conventions regarding data sources and internal protocol Standard data templatesStandard data templates Global and coherent dataGlobal and coherent data EM-DAT

6. Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database EM-DAT standard data template

7. Natural disasters in EM-DAT 1950-2008 Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

8. Natural disasters in EM-DAT 1950-2008 Source: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/23/gore-pulls-slide-of-disaster-trends/?ref=science Al Gore quote: “Human-driven climate change is creating weather-related disasters that are completely unprecedented” Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

9. Where do disasters occur & how often? 1989-2008 OccurrenceKilled Affected (million) Econ damage (US$ billion) Africa 87423,73523318 Americas 1,62887,145108727 Asia 2,5211,011,7213,858907 Europe 95388,67129270 Oceania 2723,5601823 Total6,2481,214,8324,2471,946 OccurrenceKilled Affected (million) Econ damage (US$ billion) Africa 14.0%2.0%5.5%0.9% Americas 26.1%7.2%2.5%37.4% Asia 40.3%83.3%90.9%46.6% Europe 15.3%7.3%0.7%13.9% Oceania 4.4%0.3%0.4%1.2% Total100% Human impact essentially concentrated in Asia: 83% killed; 91% affectedHuman impact essentially concentrated in Asia: 83% killed; 91% affected Europe and Africa report a similar number of disastersEurope and Africa report a similar number of disasters Asia: estimation of damage costs per capita= 225 US$Asia: estimation of damage costs per capita= 225 US$ Europe: estimation of damage costs per capita= 325 US$Europe: estimation of damage costs per capita= 325 US$

10. Disaster distribution by region 1989- 2008 Number of disaster events by region (%) Disaster mortality by region (%) Economic damage costs by region (%) Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

11. Disasters in Europe: What kinds occur most frequently? Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

12. Natural disasters in Europe: shares of the pie 1989-2008 Floods and storms are the major sources of natural perils Drought affected the largest number of people * Includes dry mass movements ** Includes wet mass movements

13. Technological disaster distribution in Europe Number of disasters Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

14. Number of technological disasters in Europe 1989-2008 Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

15. WHAT IS MICRODIS? A multidisciplinary consortium dedicated to a common goal MICRODIS focuses on the micro level of disasters. Health, Social and Economic impacts have been recognized as the key thematic areas in understanding extreme events and their relation to human populations. Social Impacts Group Health Impacts Group Economic Impacts Group Integration Group

16. Key characteristics of MICRODIS 16 field studies within a coordinated framework of analysis16 field studies within a coordinated framework of analysis yield 16 primary data-sets from disaster- affected populations on-siteyield 16 primary data-sets from disaster- affected populations on-site outputs:outputs: –standard methods to measure impacts in human populations –16 comparable datasets for analysis

17. Priority: Data for monitoring progress What do we need: Standardized definitions Inclusion criteria Standard data templates What can be done: Establish baselines Monitoring Comparability across space and time

18. Priority: Human health and acute climate events How do acute climate events affect the environment and ecology, leading to changes in disease transmission patterns? How do acute climate events affect the environment and ecology, leading to changes in disease transmission patterns?

19. Ongoing activities and potential collaborations at CRED CEHAPIS – WHO – ECCEHAPIS – WHO – EC –Assessment tools for climate change-related health impacts Research on climate signals in disaster dataResearch on climate signals in disaster data –In collaboration with NOAA Natural disaster research programNatural disaster research program –Human impact of natural disasters –MICRODIS & similar field studies in Europe Spatial analysis of EM-DAT dataSpatial analysis of EM-DAT data

20. THANK YOU … CONTACT CONTACTCRED 30, Clos Chapelle-aux-Champs 1200 Brussels – Belgium Tel: +32-2-764-3327/Fax-3441 E-Mail: Debarati.Guha@uclouvain.be www.cred.be

22. Ranking Europe disasters and their impact Top 10 countries in 1989-2008 IncidenceVictimsEcon damage‏ RussiaSpainItaly FranceRussiaGermany RomaniaAlbaniaUnited Kingdom ItalyFrance United KingdomMoldova RepSpain GermanyUkraineGreece SpainMacedonia FRYSwitzerland GreeceUnited KingdomSoviet Union BulgariaLithuaniaDenmark AustriaGermanyAustria Highest 120 (Russia)6,044,944 (Spain)‏34 US$ Billion (Italy)‏ Lowest 28 (Austria)‏ 578,699 (Germany)‏ 4 US$ Billion (Austria)‏ High concentration in few countries (France, Spain, Germany)‏ Russia most hit (wide geographical area)‏ Italy the worst hit in terms of economic damages

23. Natural disaster types Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) & MunichRe, 2009: “Disaster Category Classification for Operational Databases - Common Accord”, June (unpublished)

24. Number of technological disasters 1960-2008 Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

26. Technological disaster types