8 Campaigns and Elections Deciding Who Governs

8 Campaigns and Elections Deciding Who Governs
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY) challenged U.S. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell in one of the most closely watched campaigns of 2014.

8 Learning Objectives Elections are a key component of democratic government. In this chapter, we will study the role of elections in the American political system. We will look at what motivates citizens to pursue a political career. Once a candidate gains office, he enjoys certain advantages as an incumbent. We will learn what those advantages are. Then, we will consider campaign strategies and the significance of money in elections. Next we will take a closer look at the presidential campaign, which is unique among U.S. elections. Finally, we will assess how voters choose between candidates in primaries and general elections. Evaluate the role of elections in American democracy 8.1 Characterize the various factors that motivate people to pursue a political career 8.2 Explain the advantages of incumbency 8.3

8 Learning Objectives Identify the main components of campaign strategies 8.4 Analyze the role of money in campaigns, identify the major sources of funding, assess the motivations of contributors, and evaluate efforts to regulate campaign finances 8.5

8 Learning Objectives Outline candidates’ strategies for primary races and the general election 8.6 Assess influences on voters’ choices 8.7

Elections in a Democracy
8.1 Elections in a Democracy Elections give meaning to the idea that democracy is government by consent of the governed because they provide an opportunity for citizens to grant or withdraw consent from their representatives. Elections determine who governs, which, indirectly, determines who gets what. Elections as Mandates? Retrospective Voting Prospective Voting Protection of Rights

8.1 Elections in a Democracy Elected officials often claim that they have a mandate from the people to direct the course of public policy according to their party’s ideology but this is rarely true. In order for an election to serve as a mandate, the competing candidates have to offer clear policy alternatives and voters have to cast their ballots on the basis of these clear policy alternatives. The election results also must clearly indicate the voters’ policy preferences and elected officials must be bound by their campaign promises. None of these conditions is met in American elections. In fact, candidates seek to avoid distinguishing their policies from their opponent in order to avoid alienating voters. Voters, for their part, seldom vote based on policy positions. Image and group affiliation are the main criteria that voters use to select a candidate, after party. Elections as Mandates? Retrospective Voting Prospective Voting Protection of Rights

8.1 Elections in a Democracy Retrospective voting is common in American elections. If things are going well, voters reelect the incumbents. If things are going badly, voters punish the incumbents by voting them out. The opposite, prospective voting, in which voters select whichever candidates offer the best promise for the future, is uncommon in American elections. Most voting is based on a retrospective assessment of candidates and parties. Voting is a powerful tool for the protection of rights. Once African Americans were guaranteed the right to vote with passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, government became more responsive to their concerns. Elections provide voters with protection against official abuse: If you do not like the policies that officials are supporting, you can change the officials at the next election. Elections as Mandates? Retrospective Voting Prospective Voting Protection of Rights

8.1 8.1 What criteria must be met for an election to serve as a policy mandate? Candidates must offer clear policy alternatives Voters select candidates on basis of policy alternatives Elected officials are bound by campaign promises All of the above 9

8.1 8.1 What criteria must be met for an election to serve as a policy mandate? American elections rarely serve as policy mandates because candidates do not offer clear policy alternatives, voters do not select candidates on the basis of policy alternatives, and elected official are not bound by campaign promises. Candidates must offer clear policy alternatives Voters select candidates on basis of policy alternatives Elected officials are bound by campaign promises All of the above 10

Power and Ambition 8.2 Communication Skills Professionalism Careerism
It takes a great deal of personal ambition to seek public office. You have to want power and celebrity more than you value money, leisure, or privacy. Political office is awarded to those who want it enough to spend virtually all of their time and energy pursuing it. Communication Skills Professionalism Careerism Lawyers in Politics Careerists Versus Amateurs

Politicians know how to talk. If they don’t, they do not last long in the political arena, where they must talk to reporters on television and radio, in interviews for print media, at speeches and conferences, on the phone to donors and other officials, and on the floors of legislatures. It matters little what politicians say; the important part is how they look and sound saying it. Politics is about image, not substance, and politicians must communicate an image of sincerity, compassion, confidence, and leadership. Political work wasn’t always a full-time job. Citizen office holders would serve part-time in elective offices and then go back to their regular jobs. But politics has become professionalized; it is now a full-time career for all politicians at the national level and most at the state and local level. Communication Skills Professionalism Careerism Lawyers in Politics Careerists Versus Amateurs

If you want a career in politics, it helps to start young. Seek out internships and staff positions with legislators, volunteer to work on campaigns, and find political mentors. Rather than challenging a strong incumbent, wait until an open seat is created by reapportionment, retirement, or the incumbent running for a different office. If you are driven and energetic, running for elective office could become your professional career. It is no coincidence that half of office holders in the U.S. are lawyers. Law and politics require similar skills. Both professions represent people and deal with statutory law. Most politicians work their way up from local to state to federal office. The exceptions who gain national office without holding prior elected positions are usually famous for something else, such as being an actor, a professional athlete, or an astronaut. Communication Skills Professionalism Careerism Lawyers in Politics Careerists Versus Amateurs

8.2 Insurgency? Economics professor Daniel Brat spent about $100,000 to unseat Republican majority leader Eric Cantor in Virginia’s 7th district. Cantor spent nearly $6 million in a losing effort. Brat exploited Tea Party connections and Cantor’s lost connections to voters at home.

8.2 From what profession do over
half of elected officials hail? Medicine Academia Law Acting 15

8.2 From what profession do over
half of elected officials hail? Just over half of U.S. elected officials are lawyers. Law and politics require similar skills. Medicine Academia Law Acting 16

Advantages of Incumbency
8.3 Advantages of Incumbency We noted earlier that elections give voters the opportunity to throw officials out of office if they are displeased with them. The reality is that voters seldom do this. Reelection rates for incumbents are high – over 70% for senators and over 90% for members of the House. Why are incumbents reelected when Americans have such a low opinion of Congress? Americans distrust Congress as a whole, but generally have a positive view of their own representatives, whom they do not view as personally part of the problem. In this section, we will discover the main advantages of incumbency. Name Recognition Quality of Challengers Campaign Contributions Resources of Office Advantages of State and Local Incumbents

8.3 Advantages of Incumbency Incumbents have greater name recognition than challengers and voters tend to cast their ballots for names they recognize when they have little knowledge of candidates. House members have a higher rate of reelection than senators in part because their campaigns attract less media attention, giving lower visibility to their challengers. Challengers for Senate seats are often well known from high-profile careers or serving in previous elective offices. Their campaigns attract more media attention, giving voters the opportunity to get to know challengers better. Name Recognition Quality of Challengers Campaign Contributions Resources of Office Advantages of State and Local Incumbents

8.3 Advantages of Incumbency Incumbents have a strong fundraising advantage. Donors do not want to offend incumbents, since they are likely to win, and they have a practical interest in backing a proven winner. Contributors may support challengers in special circumstances, such as if the incumbent has been hostile to their interests, or is unusually vulnerable. Name Recognition Quality of Challengers Campaign Contributions Resources of Office Advantages of State and Local Incumbents

8.3 TABLE 8.1: In the money: Incumbent advantage in fund-raising
As we see in this table, incumbent members of Congress are able to amass many more campaign contributions than their challengers.

8.3 Advantages of Incumbency Not only do incumbents have an advantage in fundraising, but they have taxpayer-funded privileges that aid campaigning. They travel home to their districts at taxpayer expense, and Congressional incumbents have free use of the U.S. mail to send self-promotional literature, a perk known as the franking privilege. Incumbents also provide services to constituents, bring home federal funding, and have large staffs working for them both in Washington and in their home district. State and local lawmakers enjoy many of the same advantages on a smaller scale and benefit from fewer challengers, with local officeholders sometimes running unopposed. Name Recognition Quality of Challengers Campaign Contributions Resources of Office Advantages of State and Local Incumbents

8.3 Which of the following is not an advantage of incumbency?
Franking privilege Full-time staff Bringing federal funding home No record of mistakes 22

8.3 Which of the following is not an advantage of incumbency?
Incumbents have many advantages over challengers, including the franking privilege, full-time staff members, and bringing home federal funding for major projects. But they also have a voting record, and a public life that can be scrutinized and punished by voters. Franking privilege Full-time staff Bringing federal funding home No record of mistakes 23

Campaign Strategies 8.4 Selecting a Theme
Negative Campaigning: “Defining” the Opponent Targeting Voters Using Focus Groups and Polling Incumbent Versus Challenger Strategies News Management Paid Advertising Free Airtime Effects of Campaigning Campaigning is largely a media activity and today’s media-focused campaigns are highly professionalized, with candidates relying heavily on public relations and advertising specialists, professional fund-raisers, media consultants, and pollsters. Marketing a candidate is not unlike marketing a commercial product. Campaign strategists must develop a campaign strategy, which includes compiling computerized mailing lists and invitations for fund-raising events, selecting a campaign theme, and developing a desirable candidate image. The candidate’s handlers must also develop voter targeting lists and contacting strategies, monitor the progress of the campaign with continual polling of the voters, produce video, audio, and print advertisements, signs, and bumper stickers, select clothing and hairstyles for the candidate, write speeches and schedule appearances, and even plan the victory party or concession speech.

Negative Campaigning: “Defining” the Opponent Targeting Voters Using Focus Groups and Polling Incumbent Versus Challenger Strategies News Management Paid Advertising Free Airtime Effects of Campaigning The candidate must first be packaged with a message. This means that the campaign team must select a theme for the candidate. Modern campaigns are largely devoid of issues so the theme must focus on the candidate’s personal qualities to create an image. Candidates of each party are expected to take certain stands on a few perennial issues, such as abortion and taxes, but voters tend to interpret ambiguous statements to be in agreement with their own views. The modern media campaign always defines the opponent in negative terms, digging up any information that could be embarrassing, reveal character flaws, or show inconsistencies with past policy positions or voting record. It is generally easier to attack the opponent than to portray oneself in a positive fashion.

Negative Campaigning: “Defining” the Opponent Targeting Voters Using Focus Groups and Polling Incumbent Versus Challenger Strategies News Management Paid Advertising Free Airtime Effects of Campaigning Management of voter databases has become quite sophisticated. States are required to maintain voter databases and both Republicans and Democrats have their own databases, which can be cross-referenced with Census data to develop micro-targeting strategies. Campaigns use focus groups to help them select themes and identify hot-button issues. Issues can then be tested in wider polling. Campaigns employ their own private polling firms and this service is highly professionalized and carried on throughout the campaign. If a candidate falls in the polls, the campaign manager comes under pressure to change themes and strategies, and go more negative on the opponent.

Negative Campaigning: “Defining” the Opponent Targeting Voters Using Focus Groups and Polling Incumbent Versus Challenger Strategies News Management Paid Advertising Free Airtime Effects of Campaigning Campaign strategies vary by office, current political climate, and campaign manager. Incumbency is the most important factor. Challengers are free to promise voters the moon but the incumbent must run on his record. Challengers invariably attack the incumbent’s record, deplore current conditions, and stress the need for change by an outsider. Incumbents must defend their record and must be careful about blaming the opposition for blocking them, even if that is exactly what the opposition did. Candidates hope for free exposure on the evening news so they try to do something newsworthy every day, preferably something that provides a good photo op. The setting is chosen to mesh with their theme. If the theme is education, for example, the candidate may appear at a school. Themes must be able to be stated in 7 second sound bites. If the theme cannot fit on a bumper sticker, it is too complex.

8.4 News management Presidential candidate Barack Obama reads a stack of newspapers while traveling on the campaign trail in April Why is managing the media such a key part of political campaigns?

Negative Campaigning: “Defining” the Opponent Targeting Voters Using Focus Groups and Polling Incumbent Versus Challenger Strategies News Management Paid Advertising Free Airtime Effects of Campaigning Commercial advertising is the most expensive part of a campaign. Networks must charge standard rates, and offer the same rates and amount of airtime to all candidates, but these rates are so high that the amount of broadcast time a campaign can purchase is limited by the campaign treasury. Ads are short, 15 to 30 seconds, and appeal to emotions rather than dealing with issues. Ads tend to be silly, offensive, uninformative, and misleading, but they do work to influence voting.

Negative Campaigning: “Defining” the Opponent Targeting Voters Using Focus Groups and Polling Incumbent Versus Challenger Strategies News Management Paid Advertising Free Airtime Effects of Campaigning All candidates seek free airtime but it is particularly crucial to less well-funded candidates. They must devise more media events and participate in free televised debates in hopes of making up for their lack of paid advertising. Campaigns serve primarily to mobilize a candidate’s core supporters to vote on Election Day. They also persuade undecideds to become supporters. It is harder to both motivate and persuade, so candidates focus mainly on undecided voters. But they cannot ignore their supporters because they must ensure that support translates into mobilization to get to the polls.

8.4 What is a focus group? 8.4 An intensive form of polling
We discussed focus groups in this section, so you should be able to define the term. An intensive form of polling A meeting of voters to select a nominee A type of debate used in primary campaigns A staff of paid political consultants 31

8.4 What is a focus group? 8.4 An intensive form of polling
A focus group is a form of polling in which a small group of people are gathered to gauge their response to campaign strategies and issues. Media specialists use this information to develop a campaign strategy. An intensive form of polling A meeting of voters to select a nominee A type of debate used in primary campaigns A staff of paid political consultants 32

Campaign Finance 8.5 Congressional Costs Raising Campaign Cash
Public Money Small Donations Large Individual Donors Candidate Self-Financing Issue Ads What Do Contributors “Buy”? Big-Money Contributors Buying Access to Policymakers The professionalization of campaigning and the cost of television advertising have driven campaign costs to record levels. The 2008 presidential campaign cost $2 billion!

Campaign Finance (Cont’d)
8.5 Campaign Finance (Cont’d) Political Action Committees (PACs) Individual Contributors Buying Government Assistance Fund-Raising Chores Regulating Campaign Finance Limits on Contributions Independent Organization Spending Reporting Campaign Finance Reform Supreme Court and Campaign Finance Corporations, Unions, and Citizens United

Public Money Small Donations Large Individual Donors Candidate Self-Financing Issue Ads What Do Contributors “Buy”? Big-Money Contributors Buying Access to Policymakers Members of the House of Representatives run for reelection every two years. The typical campaign costs $1.4 million. This means that each House member must raise $2,500 per day, and they start the day after the election. The average Senate campaign costs over $7 million, but some candidates have spent as much as $60 million. Although senators are only up for reelection every 6 years, they must raise $3,200 per day for the entire 6 years to mount even a minimal reelection campaign. Most House members outspend challengers 10 to 1. So, fundraising is the biggest challenge that candidates face. They must seek contributions from donors big and small, interest group PACs, labor unions, corporations, and Super PACs. Wealthy candidates spend their own money. Michael Bloomberg spent $100 million on his campaign to become major of New York City.

8.5 FIGURE 8.1: Sparing no expense: Growing cost of campaigns
The costs of presidential and congressional campaigns now exceed $1.7 billion. What do you think of this? This figure does not even include expenditures on advertising and other campaign activities by independent groups. What are the implications of high campaign finance costs for democracy ?

8.5 Billionaire mayor Billionaire Michael Bloomberg funded his own independent campaign for mayor of New York in He reportedly spent $100 million of his own money, a record for a self-financed campaign.

Public Money Small Donations Large Individual Donors Candidate Self-Financing Issue Ads What Do Contributors “Buy”? Big-Money Contributors Buying Access to Policymakers Taxpayers can designate that $3 of their tax money go to presidential candidates and parties by checking a box on their tax forms. Only 11% of taxpayers tick this box so the Presidential Election Campaign Fund is in jeopardy of not having enough money to make its promised payments. Candidates can opt out of receiving public money if they receive enough private donations. Small donations make up varying percentages of campaign funds. For members of Congress, small donations amount to less than 20% of campaign funds. The proportion is higher for most presidential candidates. Donations under $200 do not become part of the public record.

Public Money Small Donations Large Individual Donors Candidate Self-Financing Issue Ads What Do Contributors “Buy”? Big-Money Contributors Buying Access to Policymakers Candidates spend a lot of time and energy wooing donors. Potential donors with deep pockets are wined, dined, and prodded by candidates at fund-raising dinners and events. There are no laws limiting the amount of their own money that candidates can spend on campaigns. Wealthy candidates self-finance much of their campaigns, and sometimes loan themselves money that they repay with campaign contributions.

Celebrities help raise funds
8.5 Celebrities help raise funds Democratic and Republican candidates both benefit from celebrity fundraising. Actor George Clooney has been actively involved in fundraising for Democrats such as Barack Obama.

Public Money Small Donations Large Individual Donors Candidate Self-Financing Issue Ads What Do Contributors “Buy”? Big-Money Contributors Buying Access to Policymakers Issue ads advocate policy positions rather than explicitly advising voters to cast their ballots for or against particular candidates. But it is clear from these ads which candidate is being supported. There are no limits on the ability of interest groups to run issue ads. It is typical for Americans to take the cynical attitude that contributors are buying special favors, privileges, exemptions, tax breaks, and favorable votes on federal regulations with their campaign donations. Scandals involving quid pro quo purchase of special favors from elected officials are common enough to reinforce this perception, but most contributions are made with a general understanding that the candidate will act in their favor on issues relevant to them rather than buying specific votes.

Public Money Small Donations Large Individual Donors Candidate Self-Financing Issue Ads What Do Contributors “Buy”? Big-Money Contributors Buying Access to Policymakers The biggest campaign contributors are businesses, unions, and professional associations. Most hedge their bets by splitting their contributions between the parties but union contributions are weighted toward Democrats, and businesses give more to Republicans. Large contributors expect access to “their” officeholders. Members of Congress are particularly responsive to donor requests, and big presidential campaign contributors can expect to at least meet with high-level staff.

8.5 FIGURE 8.2: Who Gives What?: Twenty Big Independent Spenders in 2012 Who has given the most money to Republicans? And to Democrats? Why do you think some contributors give to both parties? Which type of organization gives more heavily to the Democratic party? Why is that?

Campaign Finance 8.5 Political Action Committees (PACs)
Individual Contributors Buying Government Assistance Fund-Raising Chores Regulating Campaign Finance Limits on Contributions Independent Organization Spending Reporting Campaign Finance Reform Supreme Court and Campaign Finance Corporations, Unions, and Citizens United PACs are organized by corporations, unions, trade and professional associations, environmental groups, and liberal and conservative ideological groups. Major PACs are based in D.C., and they expect maximum return on their investment in candidates. They are the most reliable source of campaign money for lawmakers. Individual contributors tend to be ideologically motivated. Most are high-income, older Americans with strong partisan views. They gain satisfaction from backing their cause in the political process.

Individual Contributors Buying Government Assistance Fund-Raising Chores Regulating Campaign Finance Limits on Contributions Independent Organization Spending Reporting Campaign Finance Reform Supreme Court and Campaign Finance Corporations, Unions, and Citizens United Large contributors frequently do business with government agencies. They expect any lawmaker that they have supported to intervene on their behalf with these agencies, which raises ethical problems for officeholders. Corporations sometimes make donations to intimidate agency bureaucrats, letting them know that they have lawmakers at their disposal if rules are not bent for them or decisions go against them. As you might have guessed by now, fund-raising occupies most of a candidate’s time. Candidates must personally contact individual donors, working the telephone late into every evening, and attend countless dinners, cocktail parties, barbeques, fish fries, and other fund-raising affairs.

8.5 FIGURE 8.3: Who’s giving? Characteristics of individual political contributors Contributors to political campaigns generally are older and have higher incomes than most Americans. Whites and males contribute more than blacks and females, and conservatives contribute more than liberals. Why do you think white men contribute more than minorities or women?

Individual Contributors Buying Government Assistance Fund-Raising Chores Regulating Campaign Finance Limits on Contributions Independent Organization Spending Reporting Campaign Finance Reform Supreme Court and Campaign Finance Corporations, Unions, and Citizens United The Federal Election Commission (FEC), created in 1974, is responsible for enforcing limits on individual and organizational contributions to federal elections, administering the public funding of presidential campaigns, and requiring full disclosure of all campaign financial activity in federal elections. Individual contributions are limited to $2,500 per election, and organizations to $5,000. The primary and general election are counted separately. There are a number of strategies for circumventing these limits.

Individual Contributors Buying Government Assistance Fund-Raising Chores Regulating Campaign Finance Limits on Contributions Independent Organization Spending Reporting Campaign Finance Reform Supreme Court and Campaign Finance Corporations, Unions, and Citizens United Independent organizations can spend unlimited amounts of money promoting their preferred candidate provided that this spending is conducted without cooperation or consultation with the candidate’s campaign. Candidates must file reports listing their income and contributors by name, address, occupation, and employer. As noted previously, individual donors who contribute less than $200 do not have to be named, but all PAC contributions must be named, and PACs themselves must file FEC reports.

Individual Contributors Buying Government Assistance Fund-Raising Chores Regulating Campaign Finance Limits on Contributions Independent Organization Spending Reporting Campaign Finance Reform Supreme Court and Campaign Finance Corporations, Unions, and Citizens United For obvious reasons, Congress has been reluctant to pass campaign finance reform legislation, but periodically pressure from the public mounts and, in 2002, Congress unenthusiastically passed the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act. This Act made a variety of small reforms, including banning soft-money contributions, and raising individual limits. Big money contributors have found a away around those reforms that have stood up in court. The Court has seen fit to limit campaign contributions in the interest of avoiding corruption but it is opposed to limits on campaign expenditures in the interest of free speech. One effect of this distinction is that the Court upheld campaign contribution limits in BCRA but ruled that limits cannot be placed on issue ads run on behalf of candidates that do not expressly endorse a particular candidate.

Individual Contributors Buying Government Assistance Fund-Raising Chores Regulating Campaign Finance Limits on Contributions Independent Organization Spending Reporting Campaign Finance Reform Supreme Court and Campaign Finance Corporations, Unions, and Citizens United In a precedent-setting case in 2010, the Supreme Court struck down limits on corporate campaign advertising. The case was sparked by the FEC’s refusal to let a conservative PAC air an anti-Hillary Clinton movie. The Court, in a 5-4 majority, argued that corporations are people, and money is speech. This decision has been praised by Republicans and criticized by Democrats because it strengthens the influence of special interest money in elections at the expense of the interests of ordinary Americans. Activity: Campaign finance has remains a controversial topic, particularly in light of the Citizens United decision. Ask: Why would some groups and individuals want to avoid disclosing their spending on campaigns? What are some ways voters might access information on who is funding campaigns? Should campaign communications be required to disclose who paid for them?

8.5 How much, on average, does a
House member have to raise every day toward re-election campaigning? Do you remember this detail about fundraising? It may be a small detail but consider how important the fact is. $3,200 $1,500 $2,500 $3,000 51

8.5 How much, on average, does a
House member have to raise every day toward re-election campaigning? House members must raise, on average, $2,500 per day each day they are in office for their reelection campaigns, beginning the day after they are elected. $3,200 $1,500 $2,500 $3,000 52

Presidential Campaign
8.6 Presidential Campaign Media Mentions Presidential Credentials Decision to Run Strategy for the Primaries Primary Campaigns Iowa Caucuses New Hampshire Primary South Carolina Primary Front-End Strategy Front-Loading Primaries The grueling presidential campaign is a test of strength, character, endurance, and determination. It is physically exhausting and mentally and emotionally draining. The candidate and his or her family are put under a microscope, and they all must develop a very thick skin to endure the process with the grace and good humor that the public expects.

8.6 Presidential Campaign Big-State Strategy Primary Debates General Election Battle Targeting the Swing States Tarmac Politics Presidential Debates Hitting the Talk Shows Electoral College Vote The Vital South

8.6 Presidential Campaign Media Mentions Presidential Credentials Decision to Run Strategy for the Primaries Primary Campaigns Iowa Caucuses New Hampshire Primary South Carolina Primary Front-End Strategy Front-Loading Primaries Governors, senators, and others considering a presidential run seek out opportunities to get mentioned in the media. Columnists and commentators usually begin speculating on potential nominees well before primary season, so visiting early primary states, giving speeches, and otherwise getting on the media’s radar as a potential candidate is a common strategy at this early stage. Most U.S. presidential candidates bring experience as governors, members of Congress, or military service. Because Americans are so cynical about politicians, especially those in Washington, it can be useful to appear to be an outsider to politics as usual. But experience usually triumphs.

8.6 Presidential Campaign Media Mentions Presidential Credentials Decision to Run Strategy for the Primaries Primary Campaigns Iowa Caucuses New Hampshire Primary South Carolina Primary Front-End Strategy Front-Loading Primaries Staging a presidential campaign is a formidable operation. It is expensive, emotionally and financially. It involves at least two years’ worth of planning, hiring staff and recruiting volunteers, raising a minimum of $100 million just for the primary, and developing a campaign strategy. The primary and general election strategies that a candidate must adopt are very different. In the primaries, the candidate must appeal to the ideological base and distinguish himself from his rivals within his own party. In the general election, the candidate must appeal to moderates. This means a candidate must be adaptable to taking whatever policy positions are convenient for that particular circumstance.

8.6 Presidential Campaign Media Mentions Presidential Credentials Decision to Run Strategy for the Primaries Primary Campaigns Iowa Caucuses New Hampshire Primary South Carolina Primary Front-End Strategy Front-Loading Primaries An incumbent president rarely faces serious primary challengers. The other party, however, will usually have a rough-and-tumble primary to weather before the general election campaign begins. When there is no incumbent running, both parties may have large fields of hopeful candidates in the primaries. Media attention is self-reinforcing: The more you get, the more you are likely to be a front-runner, and if you are the front-runner, you will get more media coverage. But early front-runners almost never get the final nomination. The nominee must convince the party of his ideological commitment to the base as well as his electability. The Iowa caucus is famous because it is usually held first, before any other state’s primaries. It has a poor record of picking winners but candidates still campaign heavily there, glad-handing their way through many small towns, fairs, and events.

8.6 Presidential Campaign Media Mentions Presidential Credentials Decision to Run Strategy for the Primaries Primary Campaigns Iowa Caucuses New Hampshire Primary South Carolina Primary Front-End Strategy Front-Loading Primaries New Hampshire is traditionally the first state to hold its presidential primary. Although it has few delegates, the fact that it is first gives the state disproportionate attention from both candidates and the media. Candidates practice retail politics in New Hampshire. That is, they go out and meet voters face-to-face, which is impractical nationwide. It gives voters a more favorable impression. The candidates and their spin doctors try to put a positive spin on the results, and the winners ride the momentum, which helps with fund-raising. The first primary in the South occurs in South Carolina. The Democratic primary voters in this state are mainly African American, and the GOP voters are evangelical Christians. They differ from the national electorate considerably but they match the party’s core bases, making this state more successful than either Iowa or New Hampshire in picking the final nominee for each party.

8.6 Comeback kid Bill Clinton’s success in the New Hampshire primary saved his campaign after it was damaged by revelations of marital infidelity.

8.6 Presidential Campaign Media Mentions Presidential Credentials Decision to Run Strategy for the Primaries Primary Campaigns Iowa Caucuses New Hampshire Primary South Carolina Primary Front-End Strategy Front-Loading Primaries Some candidates adopt a front-end strategy, putting their time, energy, and money into the early primaries in hopes of building momentum and financial contributions. Other states have resented Iowa’s and New Hampshire’s status as the first in the nation to express their presidential preference in part because primaries bring a lot of money to the state. Some states have been scheduling their primaries earlier, until many have congregated on the first allowable date, the first Tuesday in February, called “Super Tuesday.” Florida and Michigan have held primaries in late January, earning them delegate penalties, but they contend that the loss of delegate power is worth it.

8.6 Presidential Campaign Big-State Strategy Primary Debates General Election Battle Targeting the Swing States Tarmac Politics Presidential Debates Hitting the Talk Shows Electoral College Vote The Vital South? Wealthier candidates feel free not to worry as much about the earlier but smaller delegate primaries. They focus their energy on the big states – California, New York, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. Since these states are winner take all, they only have to win by small margins. The audience for primary debates is smaller and narrower than for general election debates, and the format and rules of these debates are usually looser. They are important in helping primary voters make their choice from a large field of candidates.

8.6 Presidential Campaign Big-State Strategy Primary Debates General Election Battle Targeting the Swing States Tarmac Politics Presidential Debates Hitting the Talk Shows Electoral College Vote The Vital South? The winning candidate for each party must turn immediately after the convention to his general election strategy. This strategy is always dictated by the Electoral College. There are a total of 538 electoral votes at stake and the victor must win 270 of them. Since all states except Nebraska and Maine employ a winner-take-all policy for electoral votes, candidates focus their efforts on big-state victories. In particular, they focus exclusively on populous states that have a history of selecting the Republican candidate in some elections and the Democratic candidate in others. Neither candidate wastes any money, time, or effort on states that always vote Democratic or Republican. Campaigns are all about the swing states, which receive the bulk of the candidates’ time, attention, and advertising money.

8.6 Presidential Campaign Big-State Strategy Primary Debates General Election Battle Targeting the Swing States Tarmac Politics Presidential Debates Hitting the Talk Shows Electoral College Vote The Vital South? Candidates often appear in several states in a single day, flying into an airport or air force base and appearing on the tarmac for interviews before moving on to scheduled events such as public rallies and private fundraising events, then hopping back on the plane to do it all over again at the next campaign stop. The drama of televised presidential debates draws in even people who do not normally pay much attention to politics. Debates are aimed at undecided voters, and not likely to change the minds of confirmed partisans. Viewers can judge the candidates side by side and see how they react under pressure. Debates emphasize image over substance. Candidates must look presidential and not seem too aloof or unpolished. They must appear confident and concerned about the problems of the middle class, and they must not get rattled by their opponent or the questions.

8.6 President Obama debates Mitt Romney
President Obama debated Mitt Romney three times in In the first debate, Obama seemed unfocused but in the remaining two debates he came out forcefully, putting Romney on the defensive.

8.6 Presidential Campaign Big-State Strategy Primary Debates General Election Battle Targeting the Swing States Tarmac Politics Presidential Debates Hitting the Talk Shows Electoral College Vote The Vital South? Candidates know that potential voters who do not care enough about politics to watch news shows do watch entertainment shows, so they appear on them to reach a wider audience. The questions asked on these shows are rarely about policy but instead serve to humanize the candidate. Likeability is a major factor in the voting choices made by low-information voters.

8.6 President Elvis Bill Clinton was not the first modern presidential candidate to play an instrument for the public or to show up on a comedy show—Nixon did both. But Clinton’s 1992 Arsenio Hall Show appearance captured the public’s attention and defined Clinton as the cool, fun, sexy candidate in the 1992 election.

8.6 Presidential Campaign Big-State Strategy Primary Debates General Election Battle Targeting the Swing States Tarmac Politics Presidential Debates Hitting the Talk Shows Electoral College Vote The Vital South? In recent elections, the Democratic candidate usually wins the Northeast states, the upper Midwestern states, and the West coast. Republicans win in the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains and the South. Key Electoral College battleground states are Ohio and Pennsylvania.

8.6 FIGURE 8.4: Red states, blue states
These maps show Electoral College votes by state in the past three presidential elections. Which states are always red or blue? Which states have changed their vote?

8.6 Presidential Campaign Big-State Strategy Primary Debates General Election Battle Targeting the Swing States Tarmac Politics Presidential Debates Hitting the Talk Shows Electoral College Vote The Vital South? The Solid South has usually voted together since before the Civil War, and provides 59% of the electoral votes to its chosen candidate. Prior to 1948, the South always voted Democratic, but has voted solidly Republican since the Democratic Party embraced civil rights.

8.6 Which state holds the first
primary election? The winner of the first state to hold a primary may have some advantages. Do you recall which state holds the first primary? New Hampshire Iowa South Carolina Ohio 70

8.6 Which state holds the first
primary election? This is a bit of a trick question as New Hampshire holds the first primary election, but the Iowa caucuses precede it. New Hampshire Iowa South Carolina Ohio 71

The Voter Decides 8.7 Party Affiliation Group Voting
Forecasting election outcomes is far from an exact science, but that does not stop people from trying. No other area of politics has been investigated as thoroughly as voting behavior. Researchers compare voting choices to demographic data, and administer surveys to voters to get a handle on how voters make decisions. Party affiliation, group interests, characteristics and images of the candidates, the economy, and policy issues all factor into voter decision-making. Party Affiliation Group Voting Race and Gender Gaps Candidate Image The Economy Issue Voting

8.7 FIGURE 8.5: How we vote: Party, ideology, and nature of the times in presidential voting People who identify with one party or the other are likely to vote for that party. Beyond that, which party are liberals more likely to vote for? Conservatives? Voters who view the economy as good are more likely to vote for the incumbent than those who think the economy is poor. Why is this?

Party ties have weakened in recent decades and more voters split their tickets than did so a generation ago. But party remains an important factor in voter choice, especially in Congressional elections. Certain demographic groups tend to support one party or the other consistently. African-Americans, Jews, Catholics, union members, and working class voters tend to support the Democratic Party. Whites, Protestants, and the wealthy support the Republican Party. Party Affiliation Group Voting Race and Gender Gaps Candidate Image The Economy Issue Voting

8.7 FIGURE 8.6: How we vote: Voting in the 2012 presidential election
Compare demographics of voters who voted for the Democratic candidate, President Obama, and the Republican candidate, challenger Mitt Romney. What patterns do you notice? What changes occurred from the 2008 voting patterns?

Women are more likely than men to vote Democratic. The gender gap between the parties has been widening in recent decades. Over 90% of African Americans vote Democratic, and Hispanics tend to as well, with the exceptions of Cubans. Given the fact that women and minorities favor Democrats, why have we had so many Republican office holders? Candidate image is most important in presidential elections because they receive the most television coverage but image is the dominant factor governing voter decision-making in all elections. It is difficult to determine the personal qualities that most appeal to voters, but the amorphous idea of “character” is usually cited. Image involves looks and manner on camera. JFK easily outshined Richard Nixon in this area, and Reagan attracted many Democratic voters with his self-deprecating charm. Party Affiliation Group Voting Race and Gender Gaps Candidate Image The Economy Issue Voting

8.7 TABLE 8.2: Public perception: Obama and Romney images of 2012
Which one of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for president?

8.7 TABLE 8.3: What mattered most?: Issues the voters cared about in 2012 Relatively few voters cast their ballots strictly on the issue positions of the candidates. but voters cited these as the “most important” issues in 2012.

The economy is the main factor in voting decisions. An unassailable truth of U.S. elections is that voters punish the incumbents in hard times and reward them in good times. Fairly accurate predictions of presidential election outcomes can be made based on the state of the economy and unemployment levels. Voters do not cast their ballots on the basis of a candidate’s policy positions. Often voters are unaware of the candidates’ specific positions on policies. Other times the voter simply projects their own policy positions onto their preferred candidate, even when these projections are inaccurate. Some wedge issues generate intense feelings and candidates may try to lure the opposition’s supporters on the strength of one issue. The main example of this is the Republican Party luring voters who would normally vote Democratic except for a strong, religiously motived, anti-abortion stance. Can you think of other examples? Party Affiliation Group Voting Race and Gender Gaps Candidate Image The Economy Issue Voting

8.7 Which factor is most important in voter choice?
Let’s read this question together. Think carefully before you choose your answer. Party affiliation Candidate image Policy positions Group interests 80

8.7 Which factor is most important in voter choice?
Party affiliation, policy positions of the candidate, and group interests of the voter are all factors in voter decision-making, but candidate image is the main factor in presidential elections. Party affiliation Candidate image Policy positions Group interests 81

8 Discussion Question What did you learn in this chapter about
political campaigning that you did not know previously? Did you find any aspects of campaigning shocking or disturbing?

8 Campaigns and Elections Deciding Who Governs

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "8 Campaigns and Elections Deciding Who Governs"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback

Log in

Auth with social network:

8 Campaigns and Elections Deciding Who Governs

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "8 Campaigns and Elections Deciding Who Governs"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback