1. The 2011 Summer Heat Wave and Drought: A Recap and the Winter Outlook Jason Hansford Senior Forecaster National Weather Service Forecast Office Shreveport, LA

3. Record Extremes Breakdown: (from 7 major Climatological Stations) Daily temperature records consisted of Record Highs and Highest Minimums: June: 58 daily records July: 53 daily records August: 166 daily records (greatest ever) September: 33 daily records Daily temperature records consisted of Record Highs and Highest Minimums: June: 58 daily records July: 53 daily records August: 166 daily records (greatest ever) September: 33 daily records

4. Record Consecutive Number of 100 Degree Days City:Record # 100° Days:Previous Record: Tyler, TX46 days, ending 8/12.20 days in 1998 Lufkin, TX26 days, ending 8/24.17 days in 1944 and 1925. Longview, TX*19 days, ending 7/18. (3 rd longest streak) 21 days in 1938 Shreveport, LA**15 days, ending 8/28. (T1 st longest streak) 15 days in 1956 Monroe, LA14 days, ending 8/13.11 days in 2000 * Longview also recorded 100 degree day streaks of 18 days (T4 th with 1939) and 15 days (T7 th with 1951 and 1954) during August as well. ** Shreveport also recorded a 12 day string of 100 degree days (T3 rd with 1980 and 1875), ending on 8/10.

5. Number of 100° Days Across the Southern Plains

6. Number of 100° Days Across Oklahoma

7. The Heat’s Contribution to the Drought

8. Six Month Rainfall Map Observed Rainfall: Departure from Normal:

9. 2011 Year-To-Date Rainfall Ending Oct. 31 City:Total Precipitation: Departure from Normal: % of Normal: Shreveport, LA*20.94-21.1750% Monroe, LA35.64-8.2581% Texarkana, AR*22.12-17.6656% El Dorado, AR*24.90-17.9558% Tyler, TX*15.88-21.5742% Longview, TX*20.80-17.7754% Lufkin, TX*23.17-16.3359% * Each of these stations are on course to set the driest year ever on record, or fall within the Top 3.

10. 20 Month Rainfall and Departures (Mar. ’10-Oct. 31 ‘11) City:Total Precipitation: Departure from Normal: % of Normal: Shreveport, LA46.31-38.2655% Monroe, LA72.00-16.2782% Natchitoches, LA50.67-39.4856% Texarkana, AR45.43-36.6155% El Dorado, AR49.26-37.5957% Hope, AR53.82-35.8060% Dequeen, AR53.94-28.1166% Idabel, OK55.47-31.6764% Mt. Pleasant, TX44.39-35.1156% Tyler, TX41.95-34.4255% Longview, TX41.15-37.6152% Lufkin, TX47.58-32.8259%

11. 20 Month Rainfall and Temperature Comparison for Shreveport, LA

12. Drought Impacts County/Parish wide burn bans remain in effect. 1.Increased instances of wildfires, which have charred tens of thousands of acres. Farmers/ranchers are culling their herds. 1.Lakes continue to recede/ponds remain low or have dried up. 2.Hay remains scarce as only one or two cuttings have been produced this summer. Water restrictions are in effect areawide. County/Parish wide burn bans remain in effect. 1.Increased instances of wildfires, which have charred tens of thousands of acres. Farmers/ranchers are culling their herds. 1.Lakes continue to recede/ponds remain low or have dried up. 2.Hay remains scarce as only one or two cuttings have been produced this summer. Water restrictions are in effect areawide.

13. Bear Creek Wildfire Ignited when a limb fell onto a power line due to strong winds from TS Lee, causing sparks.

14. More on The Bear Creek Wildfire Burned nearly 41k acres over a 12 day period. This fire resulted in over $6M of damage, and resulted in 1 injury, but no fatalities.

15. Other Wildfires  June 18 th Fires   September 11 TH Fires near  Waskom.

16. Hydrological Drought Impacts Cane River in Natchitoches, LA Measured near 2 ft. on 10/11/11 (Photo courtesy of Wiley Butler) Cane River in Natchitoches, LA Measured near 2 ft. on 10/11/11 (Photo courtesy of Wiley Butler) Toledo Bend Lake near Hwy. 6 Measured near 160.3 ft on 10/18/11 Record Low: 159.9 ft on 10/31/11 Previous Record Low: 161.25 ft on 10/16/2006 (Photo courtesy of Wiley Butler) Toledo Bend Lake near Hwy. 6 Measured near 160.3 ft on 10/18/11 Record Low: 159.9 ft on 10/31/11 Previous Record Low: 161.25 ft on 10/16/2006 (Photo courtesy of Wiley Butler)

17. Shreveport Duck Pond Mid-September, 2011 Before

18. Fall/Winter Outlook Issued by the Climate Prediction Center

19. La Niña Returns! Operational Definition:Operational Definition: defined by a cooling of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) in the Equatorial Pacific. This phenomenon is characterized by a trend of the 3 month running mean of SST’s 0.5C below normal. SST’s are measured across various regions in the Pacific, but the Niño 3.4 Region (5°N – 5°S and 170°-120°W) is what is particularly monitored for ENSO conditions. To be classified as a distinct La Niña episode, these SST conditions must be met for a period of at least 5 consecutive months. Operational Definition:Operational Definition: defined by a cooling of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) in the Equatorial Pacific. This phenomenon is characterized by a trend of the 3 month running mean of SST’s 0.5C below normal. SST’s are measured across various regions in the Pacific, but the Niño 3.4 Region (5°N – 5°S and 170°-120°W) is what is particularly monitored for ENSO conditions. To be classified as a distinct La Niña episode, these SST conditions must be met for a period of at least 5 consecutive months.

20. SST’s in the Equatorial Pacific Niño 3.4 Region: 5°N - 5°S and 170° - 120°W [] []

21. Long Term SST Anomalies

22. How Strong will La Niña be This Winter? Model Forecasts Niño 3.4 SST’s

23. Jet Stream Pattern Associated with a La Niña

24. Arctic Oscillation Refers to the atmospheric circulation pattern in the northern middle and high latitudes in the Arctic. These can generate strong shifts in the climate pattern than can overwhelm or amplify the typical La Niña impacts. 1)Exhibits a negative phase when higher pressures develop over the Polar region, and low pressures develop in the mid- latitudes (near 45°N). This results in frigid air plunging south into North America east of the Rockies. 2)Exhibits a positive phase when lower pressures develop over the Polar region, and higher pressures develop in the mid- latitudes. This will keep the frigid air locked up in the Arctic region, but also drives ocean storms farther north. Thus, wetter weather is usually associated throughout Alaska, Scotland, and Scandinavia. Refers to the atmospheric circulation pattern in the northern middle and high latitudes in the Arctic. These can generate strong shifts in the climate pattern than can overwhelm or amplify the typical La Niña impacts. 1)Exhibits a negative phase when higher pressures develop over the Polar region, and low pressures develop in the mid- latitudes (near 45°N). This results in frigid air plunging south into North America east of the Rockies. 2)Exhibits a positive phase when lower pressures develop over the Polar region, and higher pressures develop in the mid- latitudes. This will keep the frigid air locked up in the Arctic region, but also drives ocean storms farther north. Thus, wetter weather is usually associated throughout Alaska, Scotland, and Scandinavia.

25. Arctic Oscillation (Nov. – Mar. 1950 - Current) Limitations to Forecasting: Strong AO episodes typically last only a few weeks, and are difficult to predict more than a week or two in advance. Limitations to Forecasting: Strong AO episodes typically last only a few weeks, and are difficult to predict more than a week or two in advance.

26. How Have Back to Back La Niña’s Contributed to Precipitation Deficits in the Past???

27. Calculated Soil Moisture Soil Moisture is ONLY 200-300 mm (8 - 12 in.) deep. That’s 140-180 mm (5.5 - 7.0 in.) BELOW normal!

28. Drought Severity Indices Palmer Drought Severity Index: Is most effective in determining long term drought by using temperature and precipitation to calculate dryness. It is also standardized to the local climate. a)Measured on a scale of -4 to 4, with negative values indicating drought, and positive values indicating moisture surplus. Crop Moisture Index (CMI): Is a short term drought index, based on precipitation, dryness, and wetness affecting agriculture. It changes more rapidly from week to week than the Palmer Index. a)Uses the same scale as the Palmer Index. Palmer Drought Severity Index: Is most effective in determining long term drought by using temperature and precipitation to calculate dryness. It is also standardized to the local climate. a)Measured on a scale of -4 to 4, with negative values indicating drought, and positive values indicating moisture surplus. Crop Moisture Index (CMI): Is a short term drought index, based on precipitation, dryness, and wetness affecting agriculture. It changes more rapidly from week to week than the Palmer Index. a)Uses the same scale as the Palmer Index.

29. Palmer/Crop Moisture Drought Index

30. How Much Rain is Needed to End the Drought?

31. Long Term Drought Outlook

32. The End Any Questions???