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INVESTMENT DECISION Types of Investment Business Environment - Economic - Political - Social - Technological Resources Available - Human - Managerial -

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Presentation on theme: "INVESTMENT DECISION Types of Investment Business Environment - Economic - Political - Social - Technological Resources Available - Human - Managerial -"— Presentation transcript:

1 INVESTMENT DECISION Types of Investment Business Environment - Economic - Political - Social - Technological Resources Available - Human - Managerial - Financial - Technological

2 INVESTMENT DECISION (con) Setting Precise Objectives Estimating Total Investment Analysing Timing of Expenditure Estimating Life of Project Forecasting Cash Inflows Forecasting Long Run costs - Sunk costs - Closure Costs - Capital Financing Costs

3 INVESTMENT DECISION (con) Evaluating Investment Proposal Effect of Inflation Effect of Uncertainty - sensitivity analysis - probability distributions

4 INVESTMENT APPRAISAL Payback Method - average payback - actual payback Simple (Accounting) Rate of Return Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) (Marginal Efficiency of Capital)

5 PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SECTORS In private sector investment generally based on commercial criteria e.g. profitability In public sector - due to the importance of externalities in relation to many types of investment such as transport – a distinctive approach is used Cost Benefit analysis is based on a more broadly based appraisal which attempts to include the measured value of externalities Public sector investment is based on cost Cost Benefit analysis

6 COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS Cost Benefit Analysis is based on a wider estimate of costs and benefits than used in conventional analysis. The equivalent of profits (in commercial terms) would now be net social benefits = Social Benefits – Social Costs - Direct Economic Costs and Benefits - Indirect Economic Costs and Benefits (Externalities) - Socioeconomic Costs and Benefits e.g. congestion, pollution and noise - Other Costs and Benefits e.g. aesthetic considerations, impact on wildlife The final category though usually not subject to monetary measurement can be important in terms of ultimate decision

7 COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS (con) Other Considerations - lifetime of project and rate of interest to be used in appraisal can be problematic in reaching decisions - market prices may not be directly relevant with opportunity cost elements in some cases very important - may be difficulties in comparing gains of those who benefit with losses of those adversely affected by developments - consumer surplus elements should be taken into account - uncertainty may exist as to alternative type situations

8 COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS (con) Examples - earliest case of Victoria Line (in London) - siting of 3 rd London Airport - use in Ireland with reference to state companies (e.g. Bord na Mona and Aer Lingus) - used by State Agencies (such as IDA to evaluate foreign investment) - employed on large projects such as Luas and proposed National Sports Centre.


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