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2009 Economic and Commodity Outlook ASFMRA Denver, Colorado October 30, 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "2009 Economic and Commodity Outlook ASFMRA Denver, Colorado October 30, 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 2009 Economic and Commodity Outlook ASFMRA Denver, Colorado October 30, 2009

2 2009 THREE BIGGEST EVENTS of LAST TWO WEEKS

3 2009 October 17,2009 Purdue 26 THE Ohio State 18

4 2009 October 24,2009 Purdue 24 Illinois 14

5 2009 October 24,2009 Iowa State 9 Nebraska 7

6 2009 General Economy Where are we headed…

7 2009 CASH for CLUNKERS was A GOOD DEAL

8 2009 GOT a LOT of OBAMA BUMPER STICKERS OFF THE ROAD

9 2009 Economic Overview  While some economic indicators are hinting the recession is ending – it isn’t.  Unemployment remains high with little sign of improvement.  Deflation continues.  This will be the decade of Three Bubbles: 1. The High Tech Bubble of 2000. 2. The Housing Bubble of 2005-06. 3. The Commodity Price Bubble of 2008.

10 2009 Name this country…

11 2009 Richest in the world Largest military Center of world business and finance Strongest education system World center of innovation and invention Currency the world standard of value Highest standard of living

12 2009 ENGLAND

13 2009 In 1900

14 2009 1 of every 8 couples married in the U.S. last year met online

15 2009

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19 Dow Jones Industrial Average, Continuous Monthly With Disparity Ratio

20 2009 Dow Jones Industrial Average, Daily

21 2009 US Dollar Index, Continuous Monthly

22 2009

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27 Gold Futures, Continuous Monthly

28 2009 GCZ9

29 2009 Crude Oil, Continuous Monthly (NYMEX)

30 2009

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37 Agriculture Overview Grain prices have likely bottomed for this marketing year Livestock profits will improve Ethanol production will increase Fertilizer supplies could get tight All ag commodity prices will be very volatile.

38 2009

39 Ethanol Plants in Production

40 2009 Ethanol vs. Gasoline Futures

41 2009

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44 Can Ethanol Demand Reach 4.2 Billion Bushels in 2009/10?

45 2009

46 Natural Gas Futures, Continuous Monthly

47 2009

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73 Corn Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)

74 2009 December 2009 Corn Futures

75 2009 December 2010 Corn Futures

76 2009

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92 Soybean Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)

93 2009 November 2009 Soybean Futures

94 2009 November 2010 Soybean Futures

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100 HRS: Underlined, SRW: Bold, HRW: Normal

101 2009

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105 Wheat Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)

106 2009 December 2009 Wheat Futures

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113 Source: Iowa State University

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118 Live Cattle Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)

119 2009 December 2009 Live Cattle Futures

120 2009 Source: Iowa State University

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126 Lean Hogs Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)

127 2009 December 2009 Lean Hog Futures

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134 235 236* All data is in thousand heads. Bold: End 2004 * 2009 data: Source, USDA, as of August 435 548* 650 618* 565 545* 307 357* 1,236 1,257* 460 469* 319 420* 321 320* 1,741 1,782* Number of Cows 9,013 9,269* Total US Cows

135 2009

136 Class III Milk Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)

137 2009 December 2009 Class III Milk Futures

138 2009 In Summary Farm income will be down in 2009, due primarily to livestock. Profits will bounce back in 2010. Producers in the southern half of the US will be mostly price buyers, not quality buyers, in the coming months. Yield increases in corn and soybeans are starting to ramp up sharply. Livestock prices have already made a major bottom.

139 2009 Land prices and cash rents will stay strong in the Midwest. California and other states impacted by dairy losses, water availability and environmental issues will soften Consolidation of farms will continue increasing the demand for farm management services and appraisals

140 2009 For More Information on the Brock Report, write, email or call BROCK ASSOCIATES 2050 W. Good Hope Rd. Milwaukee, WI 53209 (800) 558-3431 www.brockreport.com rabrock@brockreport.com


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