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Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook. 1.39 million tons.

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Presentation on theme: "Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook. 1.39 million tons."— Presentation transcript:

1 Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook

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6 1.39 million tons

7 Major Items to Watch this Year  Price of corn  Total meat production  Economy  Crude oil prices  U.S. currency value

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9 Livestock Marketing Information Center

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12 2008 Outlook

13 Recent and Projected Beef Supply

14 Total Meat Supplies 87.1 93.24 91.0689.5 85.4

15 What is the Market Offering Today- Futures Based Price Projections

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17 What You Can Sell for Today-Futures Based Price Projections

18 Inputs

19 Fertilizer Prices 1997-2007 Nitrogen prices have increased 91% since 2002

20 Fuel Prices 1997-2007 Diesel prices are up 300% since 2002

21 Impact of Fuel & Fertilizer Prices on Cost of Production

22 Projected Profits for 2008 ItemSouth Georgia North Georgia Expected Returns Over Variable Costs ($/cow) ($3.13)($30.58) Chance for positive returns48%30% Returns to Land, Labor, Capital and Management ($/cow) $56.87($2.80) Breakeven Price ($/cwt.)$100.32$101.73

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24 BEEF COWS THAT HAVE CALVED JANUARY 1, 2008 (1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

25 CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2007 TO JANUARY 1, 2008 (1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

26 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

27 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS -1.0%

28 DEMAND FOR FEEDERS

29 Price Differences between classes

30 Energy Bill  36 billion gallons of ethanol used by blenders by 2022.  15 billion gallons required to come from corn by 2015.  15 billion gallons ethanol ≈5.4 billion bushels of corn.  2007 U.S. corn crop = 13.05 billion bushels.  At 2007 yield of 151 bushels, need 35.76 million acres just for ethanol.

31 Longer Term Trends  Continued pressure from input prices.  Continued consolidation in the beef industry.  Continuing favorable beef demand.  Expanding growth in grass-fed and natural beef segments.  Animal traceability/mandatory animal ID.

32 Summary & Implications  Supply The herd has expanded some but the drought has halted growth for this year. Feeder cattle supplies are tight, … and will be for a while.  Demand Demand for beef remains good but,…economy is a big question!! Higher corn prices will reduce demand for feeders Exports will help.  Profits Most cow-calf producers will be hard pressed to cover out of pocket expenses for next 2-4 years. Higher feed, fuel and fertilizer costs will continue to squeeze profits. We are probably going to have to change our way of doing business. High-quality, source-verified, preconditioned cattle will always top the market.


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