1. Population Decline & Ageing: The Need to Recycle Human and Social Capital Prof. Dr. Nol Reverda, Lector Zuyd University Scientific Director NEIMED nol reverda - Neimed/CESRT/Hogeschool Zuyd 1

2. Contents Demographic change in Europe From green to grey: a society in transition and transformation The recycling thesis Focus on ageing and social capital, less on vulnerability and availability of social/health services nol reverda - Neimed/CESRT/Hogeschool Zuyd 2

3. nol reverda - CESRT/NEIMED/Hogeschool Zuyd 3 Global Demographic Statistics YearWorldAsiaAfricaEurope Latin America Northern America Oceania 20006,115 3,698 (60.5%) 819 (13.4%) 727 (11.9%) 521 (8.5%) 319 (5.2%) 31 (0.5%) 20106,909 4,167 (60.3%) 1,033 (15.0%) 733 (10.6%) 589 (8.5%) 352 (5.1%) 36 (0.5%) 20308,309 4,917 (59.2%) 1,524 (18.3%) 723 (8.7%) 690 (8.3%) 410 (4.9%) 45 (0.5%) 20509,150 5,231 (57.2%) 1,998 (21.8%) 691 (7.6%) 729 (8.0%) 448 (4.9%) 51 (0.6%)

4. Nol Reverda/CESRT/ NEIMED Global Developments World growth population from 6 billion in 2000 to over 9 billion in 2050 World growth population from 6 billion in 2000 to over 9 billion in 2050 European region is shrinking from 727 million in 2000 to 691 million in 2050 European region is shrinking from 727 million in 2000 to 691 million in 2050 Proportional share of two most affluent regions (USA + Europe) reduced from 17 to 12% Proportional share of two most affluent regions (USA + Europe) reduced from 17 to 12% Unpredictable future migration streams Unpredictable future migration streams Need for immigration policy in EU Need for immigration policy in EU

5. Nol Reverda/CESRT/ NEIMED Ageing: 60+ per Global Region 2000 and 2050

6. Nol Reverda/CESRT/ NEIMED Global Developments 600 million 60+ in 2000 and in 2050 2 billion (> triple) 600 million 60+ in 2000 and in 2050 2 billion (> triple) In 2050 most 60+ in Europe (33% population) In 2050 most 60+ in Europe (33% population) Potential support rate (PSR - number of 15-64 related to 65+): Potential support rate (PSR - number of 15-64 related to 65+): – in 1950: 12-1 – in 2000: 9-1 – in 2050: 4-1

7. The EU: A Shrinking and Ageing Region 20050-1415-6465+ EU-25 459.373.4308.977 Nol Reverda/CESRT/ NEIMED 20500-1415-6465+ EU-25 44966.5253.4129.1 Source : European Commission (2007)

8. Nol Reverda/CESRT/ NEIMED The EU Region Ageing is the result of successful policies in social stability, economic growth and medical progress. Ageing is the result of successful policies in social stability, economic growth and medical progress. Ageing caused by: Ageing caused by: – Low fertility rates 1960: 2,5 child 1960: 2,5 child 1995: 1,5 child 1995: 1,5 child 2030: 1,6 child 2030: 1,6 child – Increased life expectancy 1980: men 69/women 76 1980: men 69/women 76 2005: men 74/women 80 2005: men 74/women 80 2050: men 79/women 85 2050: men 79/women 85 growing group of people in the ages of 80 and 90 growing group of people in the ages of 80 and 90

9. From Green to Grey: EU Society in Transition and Transformation Shrinking and ageing are processes that transform the details of society Less people, less youngsters, more elderly Transition in society stimulates innovative processes in public administration, community development and the economy nol reverda - Neimed/CESRT/Hogeschool Zuyd 9

10. From Green to Grey: EU Society in Transition and Transformation Changing role of the European state State/public administration Civil societyMarket Changing welfare regimes (liberal, conservative, social democratic) Transition in roles and expectations: less government, more employment and employability, more active citizenship Transition in responsibilities: less state, more market, more civil society nol reverda - Neimed/CESRT/Hogeschool Zuyd 10

11. nol reverda - CESRT/NEIMED/Hogeschool Zuyd 11 From Green to Grey: EU Society in Transition and Transformation Transformation in detail – Living – Education – Labour market – Mobility – Health care and social services – Culture and leisure time facilities – Public administration and politics (‘grey’ power)

12. The Recycling Thesis: The Need to Reuse Human and Social Capital Green society 65+ 20-65 0-20 Grey society 65+ 20-65 0-20 nol reverda - Neimed/CESRT/Hogeschool Zuyd 12

13. The Recycling Thesis: The Need to Reuse Human and Social Capital Need to reuse human and social capital – Green society: much human and social capital to be constructed in the future (ages 20-65) – Grey society: much human and social capital constructed in the past (ages 20-65) – Taking from the physical/ecological discourses: We cannot permit waste! – Economic retirement is not equivalent to social retirement nol reverda - Neimed/CESRT/Hogeschool Zuyd 13

14. The Recycling Thesis: The Need to Reuse Human and Social Capital Need to activate 65+ due to scarcity of volunteers Need to rejuvenate society by reusing human and social capital of the elderly and retired people Need to preserve services on culture, community, leisure, care, education by getting elderly to take responsibilities in civil society through active citizenship Need to establish a databank for registering the talents and networks of retired people nol reverda - Neimed/CESRT/Hogeschool Zuyd 14

15. Finally Two examples: DART-network: Declining Ageing and Regional Transformation. A European network of 13 regions from 11 countries: www.dart-project.euwww.dart-project.eu Creator-network: ageing as an opportunity for regional economic development. A European network of 7 regions from 7 countries: www.creator7.eu www.creator7.eu Thanks for your attention!!! nol reverda - Neimed/CESRT/Hogeschool Zuyd 15