1. Anticipating changing skill needs in the UK R.A.Wilson and R.M Lindley* CEDEFOP/FAS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE on ‘Systems, Institutional Frameworks and Processes for Early identification of Skill Needs’, Dublin, 25-26 November 2004 Contact details: Institute for Employment Research University of Warwick COVENTRY, CV4 7AL R.A.Wilson@warwick.ac.uk Tel:+44 2476-523530

2. Anticipating skill needs in the UK Needs and roles of different actors The changing institutional framework Methods & approaches: strengths & weaknesses Overview of UK work Projections & institutions: role of the State Conclusions: priorities for policy & research

3. Information needs,Institutional frameworks and Statistical infrastructure Different users; different needs Changing Institutional frameworks Statistical infrastructure What is done; How it is done

4. Who needs what? Different needs of key audiences: –Government/Policy makers: beyond manpower planning increasing Regional & local involvement –Education and training providers (plus quasi governmental bodies, including regulatory & awarding institutions): need for useful signals –Employers – sectoral perspectives: need to get employers views but how? –Individuals/Households/Career Guidance/Unions (worker representatives, etc): career choices

5. The importance of the institutional and legal framework Cultural, historical and institutional contexts - real differences in: Education, training & skill formation Anticipation of future needs Some differences are related to data availability – –“Statistical infrastructure”

6. The changing UK institutional & legal context: increasing emphasis on skills The role of national Government: –Department for Education and Skills (DfES), and many others departments) –Devolution & Regional Development Agencies Education & training providers: –Colleges, Universities, QCA (NVQs, etc) –Training and Enterprise Councils (TECs) >> –(Local) Learning and Skills Councils (LLSCs) Employers & their representatives: –Industry Training Boards/Industry Training Organisations (ITBs>>ITOs)>> –Sector Skills Councils (SSCs) –Sector Skills Development Agency (SSDA) Careers guidance companies>> Connexions

7. Involvement of social partners Different levels of involvement & impact National level (TUC/CBI & Government interaction) Generally indirect (via representation on committees organised by government) Sectoral Level (NTOs, SSDA, SSCs) Regional & Local Level Establishment/ Company level

8. Methods and approaches to anticipating changing skill needs Quantitative methods –Ask employers?: use of surveys –Quantitative (Econometric) Models National forecasts Regional / local Sectoral More qualitative approaches –Sectoral studies/observatories –Scenario development

9. Pros and Cons of alternative approaches to anticipating skill needs Approach Surveys of employers, etc, asking about skill deficiencies & skill gaps Formal, national level, quantitative, model based projections Ad hoc sectoral or occupational studies (using quantitative (model based) and qualitative tools) Focus groups/round tables and other Delphi style methods Advantages Direct “user/ customer” involvement Comprehensive Consistent Transparent Quantitative Strong on sectoral specifics Holistic Direct user involvement Disadvantages May be very subjective Inconsistent Myopic Can too easily focus on the margins Data hungry Costly Not everything is quantifiable Impression of precision Inconsistent across sectors Partial Inconsistency Non-systematic Can be inconsistent Can be subjective

10. Statistical infrastructure for quantitative forecasting Link between data available & methods used Technological advances: data availability & processing power –Huge increase in ability to handle & process data –Improvements in data availability & accessibility Significant investments in methodological advances –Improvements in techniques and understanding –But too much emphasis on micro data? Key requirements for quantitative modelling: –National accounts (macro/sectoral models) –Time series on employment by sectors –Information on occupational and qualification structure within sectors (SIC & SOC)

11. Anticipating skill needs in the UK: an overview Pioneering efforts: –Britains Medium-term Employment Prospects / Economic change and Employment Policy –use of Multi-sectoral macro models & econometric techniques Projections of Occupations and Qualifications Working Futures: most detailed projections ever in the UK National Employer Skills Surveys: great detail but the right priorities?

12. Evaluation & assessment Accuracy in social science forecasting: a chimera? Usefulness is the key criterion? Revealed preference: continued government support LMI as a public good: ambivalent attitude of successive UK governments But support in UK not at the same levels as in some countries

13. General Central government ambivalence  arms length treatment of modelling generally & forecasting in particular  use of ad hoc studies  lack of central scrutiny of modelling work  continuous change >> loss of corporate memory  lack of recognition of arguments for public provision of LMI based on economics of information and market failure Education, training and employment: an acute case? Projections and Institutions: the role of the State

14. Increased local/regional & sectoral focus Local/regional –Devolution: Local delivery (TECs, LLSCs, RDAs, devolved Parliaments, Assemblies) –Improved access to local data & increased computing power –Local Economy Forecasting Sectoral –Industry Training Boards (ITBs)>>National Training Organisations (NTOs)>>Sector Skills Development Agency (SSDA) & Sector Skills Councils (SSCs) –Sectoral model building (CITB/EITB) –Other sectors: more qualitative approaches Relevance of Standard Systems of Classification? Detail for detail’s sake? Need to recognise generic nature of many issues

15. Need for Technocratic Dialogue Presenting or tabling for expert scrutiny Different audiences, e.g.:  those with macro-economic expertise  sectoral specialists - product/labour markets  VET specialists in particular sectors  those concerned with particular occupational areas  those focusing on regional and/or local labour markets Value of alternative approaches: qualitative & quantitative Exploring coherent alternative stories Need for new frameworks to facilitate dialogue Value of Dialogue as reflective practice

16. Conclusions Importance of institutional frameworks Importance of statistical infrastructure: but still not ideally tailored to meet real needs? Need for a range of approaches – benefits of dialogue Need to develop new frameworks to facilitate dialogue New opportunities offered by technological innovations New priorities for research & primary data collection, but need to focus on core skill needs not just at the margins

17. Further information Department for Educations ands Skills /Skillsbase (Projections of Occupations & Qualifications): http://skillsbase.dfes.gov.uk/ http://skillsbase.dfes.gov.uk/ Learning & Skills Council (National Employers Skills Survey): http://www.lsc.gov.uk/National/default.htmhttp://www.lsc.gov.uk/National/default.htm Sector Skills Development Agency (Working Futures): http://www.ssda.org.uk/http://www.ssda.org.uk/ National Guidance Research Forum: http://www.guidance-research.org/ Warwick Institute for Employment Research (Publications): http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ier/