1. Assessing the Potential of Geographic Markets fka The Effectiveness of Distant Recruiting Efforts By Gillian Butler Student Affairs Research & Information University of California, Davis CAIR 2001 Sacramento, CA SARI Report 222

2. Number of HS Graduates in June 2000: Top Ten CA Counties Source: CA Dept of Education

3. Number of Hispanic HS Graduates in June 2000: Top Ten CA Counties Source: CA Dept of Education

4. Number of African American HS Graduates in June 2000: Top Ten CA Counties Source: CA Dept of Education

5. Percentage of Enrolling Students Who Chose UCD Because They "Wanted To Live Near Home" Source: CIRP Survey of Incoming Freshmen, 1976 - 1997

6. Percentage For Whom Being Close to Home is “Very Important", by Ethnicity Source: CIRP Survey of Incoming Freshmen, 1997

7. Academic Image of UC Davis by Admits' Home Locations

8. Social Image of UC Davis by Admits' Home Locations

9. http://www.sariweb.ucdavis.edu/factbook/countymap.htm

10. Number of Applications, Admits, and Enrolled Students by Marketing Region, 1998 -'99 through 2000-'01 (Fall Freshmen from HS)

11. Number of Applied, Admitted, and Enrolled Hispanic Students by Marketing Region 1998 - '99 through 2000 - '01 (Fall Freshmen from HS)

12. Number of Applied, Admitted, and Enrolled African American Students by Marketing Region 1998 - '99 through 2000 - '01 (Fall Freshmen from HS)

13. Potential Eligibles: Completed the course sequence required for admission to a UC or CSU school

14. Percentage of Total June 2000 Potentially Eligible by Marketing Region Source: CA Dept of Education

15. Percentage of Total June 2000 HS Graduates Potentially Eligible by Ethnicity Source: CA Dept of Education

16. Percentage of Hispanic June 2000 HS Graduates Potentially Eligible by Marketing Region Source: CA Dept of Education

17. Percentage of African-American June 2000 HS Graduates Potentially Eligible by Marketing Region Source: CA Dept of Education

18. Cesa & Carnegie “Using Logistic Regression to Predict Which Admits Will Register” “Detailed tables of odds that focus on specific groups... are helpful in planning recruitment strategies for those specific groups.”

19. Logistic Regression Models Bivariate Logistic Regression Two separate models: one to predict admission, & one to predict enrollment Multiplied probability of admission by probability of enrolling to get probability of applicant enrolling. Deviation coding: Results are comparative, not absolute

20. Maximum Possible Enrollments Multiplied probability of enrolling by relative number of “Potential Eligibles” to derive Maximum Possible Enrollments

21. MODEL: All Applicants Probability of Enrolling by Number of Potential Eligibles UCD Local UCD Bay UCIUCLAUCRUCSD Probability of an applicant enrolling from this region vs. from UCD Local.25.19.09.08.13.12 Number of Potential Eligibles in this region 1443024465102322792492279891 Maximum possible enrollments 36084625875215311901221

22. MODEL: Hispanic Applicants Probability of Enrolling by Potential Eligibles UCD Local UCD Bay UUCIUCLAUCRUCSD Probability of an applicant enrolling from this region vs. from UCD Local.25.19.09.13.11 Number of Potential Eligibles in this region 149330671193931823751828 Maximum possible enrollments 373580102827306199

23. MODEL: African-American Applicants Probability of Enrolling by Potential Eligibles UCD Local UCD Bay UCIUCLAUCRUCSD Probability of an applicant enrolling from this region vs. from UCD Local.25.17.07.14.15 Number of Potential Eligibles in this region 55811951262391665403 Maximum possible enrollments 13720781759061

24. Conclusions The Bay Area is the strongest market for total applicants Local and Bay Area regions combined have same potential as LA County for Hispanic enrollments Of all southern CA markets, only LA County has strong potential for Hispanic enrollments Bay Area has the strongest potential for African-American enrollments