1. The “Short” Story of the Texas Labor Market HSI Workforce Connections Corpus Christi, Texas March 20, 2003 Richard Froeschle, Director Career Development Resources(CDR) rich@cdr.state.tx.us (512) 491-4941

2. Economic forecasting is a field that gives Astrology a good name!

4. A Changing Texas Labor Market 1. It’s a recession if you don’t have a job, otherwise it’s just a three-year downturn! 2. Economists still very divided on duration, turning point signals, impact of Iraq war, and level of job growth in recovery

5. What do labor economists agree on? 1.There will be no shortage of opportunities in the knowledge sector for those with the education and intelligence to perform in it 2.All jobs, even the most low-skilled, will require higher levels of basic education, math, communication and technology skills…for survival and growth 3. Those persons without some specialized knowledge or skill are likely to suffer declining real wages

6. What do labor economists agree on? (II) 4. The Digital Divide exists and those on the wrong side will have limited hiring and advancement opportunities 5. Jobs requiring “human touch” will continue to be in demand e.g. health services and nursing, construction…no robot plumbers! 6. Workplace settings and business practices and knowledges will change rapidly, making lifelong learning essential e.g. life after “paving the cow path”

7. U.S. Industries Adding Most Jobs 2000-2010 1. Computer and Data Processing1.80 mil 2. Retail Trade1.60 mil 3. Eating & Drinking Places1.48 mil 4. Offices of Health Practitioners1.24 mil 5. State and Local Education1.07 mil 6. Misc. Business Services1.00 mil 7. Construction824 thou 8. State and Local Government808 thou 9. Wholesale Trade776 thou 10. Health Services, NEC689 thou 13. Residential Care512 thou 14. Hospitals509 thou 16. Nursing/Personal Care Facilities394 thou

8. More Jobs in Services… Texas Absolute Job Growth 1999-2002 Educational Services Food Services/Drinking Places Ambulatory Health Care Services Professional and Technical Services Local Government Specialty Trade Contractors General Merchandise Stores Hospitals Heavy and Civil Construction Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

9. Job Declines in Goods Producing Sectors Texas Industries Losing Most Jobs 1999-2002 Agriculture/Forestry Support Computer/Electronic Manufacturing Apparel Manufacturing Transportation Equip Manufacturing Fabricated Metal Manufacturing Chemical Manufacturing Oil & Gas Extraction Food & Beverage Stores Administrative Support Services Federal Government

10. A Changing Texas Labor Market 3. More jobs in small firms, greater use of leased and independent contract labor means fewer and shorter career ladders 4. Workplace earnings are increasingly correlated with education and earnings inequality is increasing based on education and the “Digital Divide”

12. Distribution of U.S. Employment by Education Category Education Category Employment 2000 2010 Percent distribution Jobs Added Between 2000-2010 Mean Annual Earnings 2000 Bachelors Degree or higher 20.7%21.8%29.3%$56,553 First Professional Degree 1.4% 1.7%$91,424 Doctoral Degree 1.0% 1.1% 1.6% $52,146 Masters Degree 1.0% 1.5%$43,842 Bachelors plus work experience 5.0%5.2% 6.4% $69,967 Bachelors Degree 12.2%13.0% 18.1% $48,440 Associate Degree 3.5%4.0%7.3%$41,488 Postsecondary vocational award 4.6% 4.7%5.5% $31,296 Work experience 7.2% 8.5% 6.9%5.0% $40,881 Long-term OJT 8.0%4.2% $33,125 Moderate-term OJT 19.0% 18.4%14.1% $29,069 Short-term OJT 36.6%36.3% 34.6%$19,799

13. A Changing Texas Labor Market 5. Changing demography affects everything from education needs, workplace diversity, tax structure, retirement planning 6. Educational Preparation 7. Globalization is changing economic theory, business practices and labor supply options

14. Population Pyramids for Anglo and Hispanic Ethnic Groups in Texas, 2000 Male Female AngloHispanic

15. Education and Labor Supply a. Changing demographics-new mix of diversity in the labor pool b. Relevance of a college major? c. College credential vs. industry certification? Value of a diploma? d. Counting skill attainment from non-traditional sources, e.g. on- line courses, employer training, Marketable skills achievers?

16. How Globalization Impacts the Labor Market—The Basics Globalization & new digital technology opens producer/consumer markets around the world Increased customer access to producers leads to global price competition, driving employer need for greater productivity, lower prices Increased price competition leads to cost containment pressures Cost containments leads employers to new supply chain practices, concerns over labor costs, alternative labor options

17. The Workplace of the Future... The factory of the future has just one man and one dog. The man’s job is to feed the dog. The dog’s job is to keep the man from touching the equipment.