1. Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2015 January 20, 2015

2. Class Information and News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15 –Record of course Rood’s Class MediaWiki SiteClass MediaWiki Site –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action A tumbler site to help me remember –http://openclimate.tumblr.com/http://openclimate.tumblr.com/

3. Resources and Recommended Reading Radiative Balance –Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties (2005) Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) Chapter 1BASC http://www.nap.edu/books/0309095069/html From class website –Executive SummaryExecutive Summary –Chapter 1: Radiative ForcingChapter 1: Radiative Forcing

4. Outline: Class 4, Winter 2015 Definition and focus on “systems” –In the language of science –In the language of problem solving Earth-Sun system Role of the Atmosphere –Fundamental role of greenhouse gases –Other greenhouse gases of high importance Past behavior Carbon dioxide budget

5. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSTHEORY EXPERIMENT Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary Problem Solving Unification Integration (perhaps not unique) Break into pieces  “granules”

6. Problem Solving Brings Focus to System System (Dictionary Definitions): –a set of connected things or parts forming a complex whole –a set of interacting or interdependent components forming an integrated whole –has: Structure, Behavior, Interconnection Systems Engineering: study, understanding (analysis), design, management of systems

7. Systems, Scientific Method and Earth’s Climate First steps in studying system –Defining the system –Breaking down the system to allow understanding We will use principles of scientific investigation to break down into pieces. –Observations –Theory … Draw a Picture –Prediction –Evaluation

8. Sun-Earth System SUN: ENERGY, HEATEARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

9. Sun-Earth System CO 2 is making the blanket thicker SUNEARTH EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE

10. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). The sun-earth system (What is the balance at the surface of Earth?) SUN Earth If we do an accounting of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F).

11. Earth and its warmth That in the absence of the atmosphere the temperature would be about -18 C or 0 F is hugely important

12. Greenhouse gases (GHG) Earth's most abundant greenhouse gases –water vapor (H 2 O) –carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) –methane (CH 4 ) –nitrous oxide (N 2 O), commonly known as "laughing gas" –ozone (O 3 ) –chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) Ranked by their contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most important ones are: –water vapor, which contributes 36–70% –carbon dioxide, which contributes 9–26% –methane, which contributes 4–9% –ozone, which contributes 3–7% What are the atmospheric lifetimes of the GHGs?atmospheric lifetimes

13. Some attributes to hold in mind We are increasing CO 2 – there is a lot of it and it is easy to release. We like fire. There is an immense amount of water on Earth and it cycles between its different phases. There is a lot of methane on Earth. Nitrous oxide is wrapped up in agriculture and fertilizers. Manufacturing makes very potent greenhouse gases.

14. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Data and more information Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas

15. Web links to some CO 2 data NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division –Carbon Cycle Greenhouse GasCarbon Cycle Greenhouse Gas –Mauna Loa Carbon DioxideMauna Loa Carbon Dioxide Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis CenterCarbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center –Recent Greenhouse Gas ConcentrationsRecent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations NOAA/PMEL CO2 and Ocean

16. Let’s look to the past This is called “paleoclimatology.” –NOAA’s Paleoclimatology BranchNOAA’s Paleoclimatology Branch Ice Core Portal Vostok Data –Petit, Nature, 1999Petit, Nature, 1999 –Koshland Science MuseumKoshland Science Museum

17. Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores  During this period, temperature and CO 2 are closely related to each other  Times of low temperature have glaciers, ice ages (CO 2 <~ 200 ppm)  Times of high temperature associated with CO 2 of < 300 ppm This has been extended back to > 700,000 years

18. Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores  During this period, temperature and CO 2 are closely related to each other  It’s been about 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age  There has been less than 10,000 years of history “recorded” by humans (and it has been relatively warm)

19. So what are we worried about? 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores  Carbon dioxide is, because of our emissions, much higher than ever experienced by human kind  Temperature is expected to follow  New regimes of climate behavior?  Humans are adapted to current climate behavior.  The change is expected to happen rapidly (10 -100 years, not 1000’s) CO 2 2010 CO 2 2100 390 ppm 460 ppm

20. Are we saving civilization? 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores  If the normal pattern were to continue, without additional carbon dioxide, what would we expect? CO 2 2005 CO 2 2100 360 ppm 460 ppm

21. We have gone through those figures fast But, but, but, !!!!!!!! Whoa … The carbon dioxide and temperature sometimes DO NOT seem perfectly related. In the past the temperature increase started before the carbon dioxide increase. It’s pretty clear that an ice age is on the way. The climate is clearly periodic, and there is nothing we can do about it.

22. Global cooling? Why do we think that our predictions today are more robust than these predictions from the 1970s?

23. From the Ice Core Data: Questions? We see a relationship between carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and Temperature (T) –What is the cause and effect? –Why do we bounce between these two regimes? –Dynamic equilibrium? Are these oscillations caused by something “external”? –Are there other parameters or attributes which are correlated with this behavior? What is different from the stock market, where “past behavior does not indicate future performance?”

24. Let’s Look at the past 1000 years We have more sources of observations. We have better observations. We have public records and literature and natural history.

25. Let’s look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.  Medieval warm period  “Little ice age”  Temperature starts to follow CO 2 as CO 2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years.

26. Let’s look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. Note that on this scale, with more time resolution, that the fluctuations in temperature and the fluctuations in CO 2 do not match as obviously as in the long, 350,000 year, record. What is the cause of the temperature variability? Can we identify mechanisms, cause and effect? How? {

27. What do we see from the past 1000 years On shorter time scales the CO 2 and T are not as cleanly related. Periods on noted warmth and coolness are separated by changes in average temperature of only 0.5 F. Changes of average temperature on this scale seem to matter to people. –Regional changes, extremes? Recent changes in both T and CO 2 are unprecedented in the past several hundred thousands of years. –And the last 10,000 years, which is when humans have thrived in the way that we have thrived.

28. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Data and more information Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas

29. What about the CO 2 increase? CO 2 now Concept of “stabilization” Stabilization as we have thought about it in the past may not be possible.

30. Carbon dioxide budget

31. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Important things in this figure.

32. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Enormous amount of carbon dioxide in the ocean.

33. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Exchange of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and ocean ocean. -2

34. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Large amount of carbon dioxide in the “soil” and plants

35. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Exchange of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and “land.”

36. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Large amount of carbon dioxide in coal, oil, gas

37. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Movement of carbon dioxide by burning +5.5 Millions of Years Hundreds of Years

38. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Movement of carbon dioxide by land use changes +1

39. Were you counting? Net sources into the atmosphere Net removal from the atmosphere 5.5 + 1 = 6.5 2+1 = 3

40. Another view of CO 2 increase Global Carbon Project

41. CO 2 from 2012 to 2013 Global Carbon Project

42. Carbon and Oceanic Exchange

43. Carbon and Terrestrial Exchange

44. Summary: Class 4, Winter 2015 Basic system for framing Earth’s climate is planet that is warmed by the Sun and that cools to space and reaches a balance. The presence of the atmosphere means that energy is held near the Earth’s surface. –Keeping Earth’s surface warmer than it would be if the energy was not stored –About 58 F rather than 0 F

45. Summary: Class 4, Winter 2015 Water exists in solid, liquid and gas (vapor). –Water and its phase changes represent energy Study of past climate reveals variability –Ice –Greenhouse gases –Temperature –Influence on humans –Influence on types of life in general

46. Summary: Class 4, Winter 2015 Humans are NOT required for carbon dioxide variability. CO 2 is increasing in the atmosphere and ocean. –This time it is humans altering the geology of Earth –Anthropocene For the climate problem CO 2 in the environment is increasing. It takes a long time for it to be removed, there is a lot of cycling between atmosphere, ocean and land. –What happens if ocean gets warmer? In ocean transfer of CO 2 between CO 2 and calcium carbonate and carbonic acid leads to acidification.

47. Outline: Class 4, Winter 2015 Definition and focus on “systems” –In the language of science –In the language of problem solving Earth-Sun system Role of the Atmosphere –Fundamental role of greenhouse gases –Other greenhouse gases of high importance Past behavior Carbon dioxide budget