1. United States Military Space Systems – The Road Ahead Presentation at NONPROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT—THE WAY FORWARD, a Symposium at MIT on 21-22 October 2005 marking the 25th Anniversary of the Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies and the Nuclear Freeze Campaign Panel on The Weaponization of Space Matthew Hoey, Research Associate, Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies If you use or cite this presentation, please inform the author. tel: 617-354-IDDS (4337), email: hoey@idds.org.hoey@idds.org

2. MILITARY SPACE SYSTEMS Current and Future Industry and Government Drivers THE PLAYERS BEHIND THE PROJECTS

3. The Industry and the Paradigm Shift Missile defense and space systems contracts have long been Missile defense and space systems contracts have long been monopolized by the “Big 6” in the space systems Industry… This is no longer the case and affordability is the catalyst driving industry realignment – while allowing the US government to pursue more military space projects than ever before

4. The “Emerging” Industry Leaders The monopoly of the present is slipping into the past – in the world of space systems new leaders are emerging. Launch Services Space Asset Protection Small Satellites Asset Maintenance

5. Government Side Developers The government development of military space systems are being accelerated thanks in part to partnerships that effectively blur the line between weapons research and commercial applications NOT TO MENTION UNIVERSITY-BASED RESEARCH TEAMS

6. FORCE TRANSFORMATION & OPERATIONALLY RESPONSIVE SPACE (ORS) A PUSH TOWARDS SPACE SUPERIORITY AND THE FIRST STEPS TO WEAPONIZATION - ACCELERATED

7. Office of Force Transformation Objectives Development: Time required to design, build, and test spacecraft hardware Currently 2 to 10+ years To counter adversary’s changing tactics warfighting capabilities must be developed within 6-9 months Deployment: Time required to integrate, launch, and deliver space systems Currently 3 to 12+ months Space-based assets must be in place and ready for operation within hours of a request for support Operate: Time required to deliver a systems products or effects Current timelines depend on system and mission it is typically hours to days Under ORS space system operations must respond in timelines consistent with battlefield operations (continuous/seconds)

8. Next generation expendable launch vehicles Funding provided primarily by the Air Force, Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO), NASA, and Microcosm internal R&D. 810lbs into LEO for $4.2 million On 8 HOURS notice Microcosm will be offering this service in 24 months What are the implications? Affordable launch services + Small Sats 700 lbs. to 100 NMi LEOrbit for $1.8mn by 10th flight.

9. The ESPA Ring The ESPA is a structure developed by the Air Force Research Labs (AFRL) and the Space Test Program (STP) as a means to deploy small satellites. ESPA is currently only compatible with the Atlas V or the Delta IV Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle or EELV and in time the ESPA ring may be incorporated into more affordable next generation EELV launch options – further reducing the cost of space weaponization and commercial space systems development. ESPA COMPATABILITY WILL BE THE STANDARD DEPLOYMENT PLATFORM FOR THE SMALL SATELLITE INDUSTRY

10. How fast is small satellite technology moving? Surrey UKAeroAstroSpaceDev Minisatellites 100kg and up Microsatellites 40 - 450 kg Small satellites 150 - 250 kg Microsatellites 10 - 100kg Nanosatellites 10-40 kg Microsatellites 10 to 150 kg Nanosatellites 5 - 10kg Picosatellites 5 kg Nanosatellites 1 to 10 kg Picosatellites 1 - 5kg Cubesatellites 1 kg Picosatellites.1 to 1 kg - NOTE THE FLUCTUATION IN WEIGHT and DEFINITIONS

11. SMALL SATELLITE COMPANIES AND SYSTEMS

12. ESCORT INSPECTION MICROSATELLITE ESCORT APPLICATIONS Monitor space around a large satellite to detect attacks. Stealthily inspect and monitor a large satellite to determine its capabilities. Stealthily attack to permanently or temporarily disable a large satellite. Actively defend a large satellite against attacks by microsatellites. Company Profile Source: AeroAstro

13. Company Profile Maneuvering and orbital Transfer Vehicle (MoTV) SpaceDev MoTV Classes There are three size classes of MoTV, designated as -1, -2, -3: "-1" is up to 50 kg (MoTV-1) "-2" is up to 100 kg (MoTV-2) "-3" is up to 200 kg (MoTV-3) KEY USES Proximity Operations Rendezvous Inspection Surveillance Protection Key Technologies Cosmic Hot Insterstellar Plasma Spectrometer Satellite (CHIPSat) 100% TCP-IP What does that mean? This is command and control Source: SpaceDev

14. REDOCKING CUBESATS Imagine, a host docking satellite with multiple cubesats no larger than 10 inches on any given side able to place for instance, a black swath of adhesive material over a satellite lens or solar array – then removed once the objective has been met. Key components of stealth satellite attack is an attack that duplicates natural phenomenon or is reversible.

15. The Experimental Satellite Series XSS-11 Launched April 2005 XSS-10 Launched January 2003 Rendezvous Interdiction Inspection

16. Demonstration of Autonomous Rendezvous Technology (DART) The DART will approach the target satellite and perform a series of proximity operations including: Station keeping Docking axis approach Circumnavigation. Collision avoidance the maneuver then depart the vicinity and transition to its final orbit. The entire sequence will be accomplished under autonomous control. Source: Orbital

17. Orbital Express Broad range of uses ranging from US national security applications to commercial space programs. Orbital Express will extend the life of Satellites by providing:  A refueling capability  On-orbit refueling  Improve survivability “In addition, ORBITAL EXPRESS can support deployment and operations of micro-satellites for missions such as space asset protection and sparse aperture formation flying, or deploy nano-satellites for inspection to provide data to support satellite repair.” DARPA Source: DARPA, Boeing

18. WHAT NEXT?

19. With such a capability is there a possibility of an operable ASAT system on the horizon? Without clearly defined rules and limitations - YES

20. What are the implications an eventual ASAT system being operational? For hundreds of years blockades were used to compromise the economies and military capabilities of enemy states. In Iraq air strikes on critical infrastructure like electrical grids were common place and economic sanctions were the means of limiting a nations economy - this is still the way, for now. But as we move forward technologically and economies become more reliant on satellites - stock exchanges, communications, banking… And militaries rely more on space without rules – space asset protection will be needed and the ability to inflict damage similar to economic sanctions can be done without UN consensus and instead achieved via taking out a single satellite. Space based sanctions, embargos and blockades – not to mention removing the eyes and ears of a military by taking down their space systems

21. The marriage of cutting edge technologies Hypersonic air breathing launch vehicles –Launch on demand at 5x the speed of sound Next generation small satellites –capable of direct engagement, asset protection and stealth attack ESPA ring technology –An ability to deploy multiple small satellites

22. Global Presence

23. OTHER SPACE SYSTEMS

24. Technologies in Development Direct Engagement Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Ground-based kinetic energy ASAT (KEASAT) “Killer” Micro and nanosatellites The Experimental Satellite Series (XSS) Near field infrared experiment (NFIRE) Air Launched Anti-Satellite Missile Maneuvering and Orbital Transfer Vehicle (MoTV) Radio Frequency (ASAT) Counter Satellite Communications System Space-Based Radio Frequency Energy Weapon Counter Communications System (CCS) Space-Based Radio Frequency Energy Weapon Satellite Identification Systems Rapid Attack Identification, Detection and Reporting System (RAIDRS) Counter Surveillance and Reconnaissance System (CSRS) Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs)—Lasers Mid-Infrared Advanced Chemical Laser (MIRACL) Ground Based Laser Limited Space-Based Lasers Incorporating Mirror Constellations Space Based Laser Constellations -hydrogen fluoride chemical lasers -deuterium fluoride lasers -chemical oxygen iodine laser (COIL) Joint High Power Solid State Laser Program Evolutionary Air and Space Global Laser Engagement Airship Relay Mirrors Space Based Vehicles and Interceptors Orbital Transfer Vehicle Space Operations Vehicle Hypervelocity Rod Bundles Artificial Meteoroids/Spheres Space Maneuver Vehicle (SMV X-40) Common Aero Vehicle (CAV X-41) Space-Based Interceptor Test Bed (MKV) Hypersonic Cruise Vehicle (HCV) Falcon Electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons Information Operations (IO) and Network Warfare Operations The computer driven means for corrupting space- based and terrestrial-based computer systems which manage satellite functions. C4ISR Systems Early warning and surveillance systems, satellites, radar, identification systems, communications systems, ground-, air- and space-based sensors to support target assessment efforts and intelligence gather efforts on rival space capabilities. NOT INCLUDING MISSILE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGIES Source: Arms Control Reporter

25. The BMD – Space Systems connection Effective and affordable solution to the emerging midcourse threat Destroys multiple credible objects – both lethal threats and decoys Dramatically reduces threat leakage Integrated with all Ballistic Missile Defense System assets Adaptable to multiple basing options Terrestrial based and integrated into the current ground based systems – up to 7 interceptors - by FY’07 Source: MDA and SMDC

26. The Common Aero Vehicle Project FALCON Capabilities enabled by responsive spacelift –Strike targets anywhere from CONUS in 120 minutes or less. –Increased warfighting capability against hard and deeply buried targets. –Minimizes over flight and landing issues and concerns. –Avoids risk to flight crews –Relatively invulnerable to anti- access threats. –Cost competitive with other platforms Approx. Performance Requirements –Precision strike –Variety of conventional payloads –In-flight target updates –Worldwide, all weather range Source: AFRL, DARPA, Air Force

27. Space Insertion and Extraction “the idea is to move a squad-sized unit of Marines to any place on Earth in less than two hours.” Marine BGen Richard C Zilmer Evolutionary Improvements to Conventional Assault Support Space Insertion-Terrestrial Extraction Stealthy, Survivable Transport of 13 Troops & Equipment Launch on Demand Unrefueled transport No overflight restrictions Source: Ret. Brig. Gen. S. Pete Worden

28. SMARTBus Satellite Systems Referred to as the 6 DAY satellite – Ultimate objective: To be assembled and deployed in the field for on demand intelligence, communications, imaging… PLUS – SENSE - PLAY Source: AeroAstro

29. Some Closing Thoughts What you have just viewed is a snap-shot of military space and dual-use technologies that are in various stages of research and development. Tax dollars are being spent, defense contractors are hard at work, and various branches of the military are awaiting results. What is possible and what is not: Some of these systems may be “dream” technologies that will never reach the point of deployment. For systems that are technically possible, we must ask: Are they desirable? If deployed, what impact will these systems have on the dynamics of international security? Will the impact be positive or negative? If negative, what steps might be taken to prevent such developments? One thing is certain: The time for international negotiations to create a treaty banning weapons in space is long overdue – the time to act is now.

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