1. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Community Smoke Emissions Model WRAP Fire Emissions Forum Meeting December 2002 Douglas Fox Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere Colorado State University Ft. Collins, CO 80524-1375 fox@cira.colostate.edu

2. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Based on work & presentations developed in cooperation with Dr. Mike Sestak (an independent consultant), Dr. Susan O’Neill (research scientist in PNW Seattle FERA group), Dr. Sue Ferguson (PNW FERA), Dr. Jason Ching (EPA/NOAA research) & Dr. Al Riebau (FS research)

3. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 History Technically Advanced Smoke Estimation Tools (TASET) –JFSP project (Fox & Riebau, 1998-2000) Establish FCAMMS Cooperative Agreement (2000-continuing) –NPS Air Quality Division/CIRA (1999) Evaluate applicability of Models3/CMAQ in Western US (WRAP….) R&D on fire emissions

4. SETS -- Strategic SETS -- Tactical SETS -- Operational SETS -- Evaluation Vegetation growth & composition including fire effects models Fire behavior & combustion models Smoke Emissions Models Smoke Emissions Models Archived & On-Site Met Data Archived & On-Site Met Data Local wind field diagnostic models Local wind field diagnostic models Smoke Concentration patterns in space & time Land Cover & Condition Databases Met. Mesoscale Forecast Models Air Pollutant Dispersion Models SETS -- Strategic TASET suggested ‘Smoke Estimation Tool Sets’ need to be populated with some different tools at each level of activity but tools must be able to interact between the activity levels.

5. USFS/Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Smoke and Meteorology (FCAMMS) will implement smoke management using “BlueSky” by 2003.

6. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 BlueSky: Smoke Modeling Framework Regional application; Automated, centralized processing; Emission tracking; Prediction of surface concentrations; Quantitative verification; Community model development; Web-access control and output products; www.BlueSkyRAINS.org/

7. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Needs for a Community Smoke Emissions Model Fire smoke is significantFire smoke is significant Current emissions inventories are labor intensiveCurrent emissions inventories are labor intensive –GCVTC, WRAP Potential ApplicationsPotential Applications –Regional Air Quality Modeling Regional Haze planning & SIP development PM2.5 –Smoke Management Blue Sky Framework State based regulatory programs –Land Manager inventory & evaluations

8. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Monitoring Data IMPROVE program measures visibility & speciated aerosol data representing Class I areas & relates them to each other for the regional haze rule; Majority of fine particle species emitted from fires are organic and elemental carbon & secondary organic aerosol formation is poorly understood. Wildland fire contributes to the 20% worst visibility days, especially in the west

9. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Fire effects visibility Monthly OC contribution to total fine mass reaches 80% in some western US locations, longer term 10-30% IMPROVE monitoring suggests a range of 10%-40% of OC (organic carbon contribution to PM2.5) on the high mass days (20% worst visibility) may be from wild fires.

10. On-going research is attempting to quantify fire’s contribution to organic aerosols On-going research is attempting to quantify fire’s contribution to organic aerosols p Organic Carbon % contribution to total extinction Elemental Carbon % contribution to total extinction

11. Preliminary research results from the NPS Yosemite field study August 2002, on particle chemical composition Organics accounted for about 80% of the non-soil fine mass during the summer of 2002. The summertime organics in 1996-98 account for about 60% of the non-soil fine mass. Organics come from biomass & fossil fuels IMPROVE Data 1996-98

12. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Why a Community Smoke Emissions Model? Common fire data –Inputs not readily available Common modeling heritage –Fire Behavior - BEHAVE –Fuel Consumption - CONSUME –Emissions Production – EPM –Emissions Factors Variety of applications –Different objectives drive different accuracy & resolution needs

13. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Community Smoke Emissions Modeling Identify Fires Meteorology Identify Fuels Consumption Emissions Production Speciation Plume Rise Input for Regional AQ model

14. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 What we CSEM is trying to do… Goal: to build a tool to generate emissions from forest burning for use in regional air quality modeling with the following characteristics: –Scale is regional to national with resolution ranging from 1 km to 36 km; –Temporal resolution from hourly to multi-year; –Chemical species including all NAAQS & visibility components & their precursors; –Accuracy equivalent to other emissions estimates.

15. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 MM5 Meteorology 2pm local time Temperature; Relative humidity; Cloud cover; Wind speed Daily Temperature range; Relative humidity range Past 7 days Precipitation; Same as above MM5 Meteorology 2pm local time Temperature; Relative humidity; Cloud cover; Wind speed Daily Temperature range; Relative humidity range Past 7 days Precipitation; Same as above Identify vegetation cover & fuel loadings (1 km resolution) Read from NFDR fuel model coverage Modify with National FCC coverage Generate species Emissions & Plume Rise (hourly, regional model resolution) Develop emissions profiles to scale species from EPM generated emissions & to generate hourly emissions distributions. Estimate plume rise based on Briggs at appropriate resolution for the spatial scale of emissions. Calculate Fuel Consumption (daily, regional model resolution) Utilize CONSUME to generate fuel consumption and EPM to estimate emissions & heat release rate for each fire. Calculate Fuel Moisture Content (daily, weekly, regional model resolution) NFDR calculations based on MM5 input for range of variables at 36 km resolution Fire Generator (hourly, 1km resolution) Identify Fire Boundaries (daily, 1 km resolution) Read from National Fire Occurrence database FIRES

16. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Assumptions about our approach… Build a 1 st order tool capable of estimating needed information from existing data & information sources; Accuracy & scale needed are compatible with the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDR); Based on historical fire data; Meteorological data generated from MM5 &/or higher resolution diagnostic models.

17. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Approach outline 1.Identify fire boundaries; 2.Identify vegetation & fuels involved; 3.Calculate fuel moisture content; 4.Calculate fuel consumption; 5.Calculate fire emissions; 6.Speciate fire emissions & calculate plume rise.

18. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Identify fire boundaries Time, location, & size of fires determined from National Fire Occurrence Database (Hardy, et.al. Missoula Fire Lab.) National Fire Occurrence Database Federal & most State fires, from 1986-1996, at 1km resolution in a daily GIS database. Fire Generator (hourly, 1km resolution) Identify Fire Boundaries (daily, 1 km resolution) Read from National Fire Occurrence database FIRES

19. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002

20. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Identify NFDR fuel model at 1 km resolution from Bergen, et.al., 1998 Bergen, et.al., 1998 Modify fuel loading, if necessary, using fuel National Current Condition Class coverage (Hardy, et.al. Missoula Fire Lab.)National Current Condition Class coverage Identify vegetation & fuels Identify vegetation cover & fuel loadings (1 km resolution) Read from NFDR fuel model coverage Modify with National FCC coverage

21. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002

22. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Optional modifier for NFDR fuel loadings, if needed to replicate WRAP ’96 fire emissions

23. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Calculate fuel moisture content Use NFDR equations based on data from MM5 including daily temperature & RH range, wind speed, cloud cover, precip. Drought indices from MM5 Resolution from MM5 Calculate Fuel Moisture Content (daily, weekly, regional model resolution) NFDR calculations based on MM5 input for range of variables at 36 km resolution

24. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002

25. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Calculate fuel & emissions Use CONSUME with NFDR model estimates of fuel loading & moisture content. Use EPM to generate PM10, PM2.5, CO & heat release rate. Calculate Fuel Consumption (daily, regional model resolution) Utilize CONSUME to generate fuel consumption and EPM to estimate emissions & heat release rate for each fire.

26. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Speciate emissions & calculate plume rise Develop emissions profiles from ratios of species to calculated CO emissions from current research results. Calculate plume rise using Briggs per SASEM Generate species Emissions & Plume Rise (hourly, regional model resolution) Develop emissions profiles to scale species from EPM generated emissions & to generate hourly emissions distributions. Estimate plume rise based on Briggs at appropriate resolution for the spatial scale of emissions.

27. Emissions speciation CO21521 g/Kg1833*CE g/Kg CO144961 - (984*CE) CH46.842.7 – (43.2*CE) PM2.51267.4 – (66.8*CE) PM10141.18*PM2.5 EC0.7 (0.7)0.072*PM2.5 OC5.8 (5.8)0.54*PM2.5 NOx3.1 (2.0)16.8*MCE-13.1 NH40.60.012*CE VOC6.8 (5.3)0.085*CE SO20.8 (0.8) Etc, etc. CE = DCO 2 / {DCO+DCO 2 +DCH 4 +DCother} MCE = 0.15+.86*CE

28. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Preliminary Results Comparative data inputs from 2002 Oregon fire (actual vs. 1996 met) BlueSky/FASTRACS CSEM Area of Burnsite [acre] 500 500 0 - 0.25 inch fuel [tons/acre] 1.0 2.9 0.25 - 1 inch fuel [tons/acre] 2.2 2.3 1 - 3 inch fuel [tons/acre] 1.6 5.6 3 - 9 inch fuel [tons/acre] 5.4 13.2 9 - 20 inch fuel [tons/acre] 24.6 0 20+ inch fuel [tons/acre] 0.1 0 Duff 8.0 2.5 Burn-site slope [percent] 50 50 Ignition time [HHMM] 1400 1400 10-hr fuel moisture 9 13.5 Surface wind speed (mph) 6 5.5

29. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Preliminary Results Comparative emissions from 2002 Oregon fire (actual vs. 1996 met) Bluesky CIRA Time Heat Rel PM-10 Heat Rel PM-10 60 1.448E+07 9079.0 1.521E+07 9054.1 120 1.495E+07 9416.7 1.533E+07 9144.7 180 1.497E+07 9429.6 1.533E+07 9145.7 240 1.497E+07 9430.0 1.533E+07 9145.8 300 1.497E+07 9430.1 1.533E+07 9145.8 360 1.497E+07 9430.1 1.533E+07 9145.8 420 4.890E+05 351.0 116867.1 91.6 480 1.868E+04 13.4 1287.9 1.0 540 7.137E+02.5 14.2 0.0 600 2.727E+01.0 0.2 0.0

30. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002

31. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002

32. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Preliminary Results

33. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 CSEM Summary A rational approach to generating forest fire emissions for regional scale modeling has been developed. Results appear to be consistent with site specific emissions estimates (BlueSky) but more testing is needed. Plans exist to incorporate CSEM into the SMOKE processor.

34. WRAP Fire Emissions Meeting 5 December 2002 Challenges remaining Coding CSEM into appropriate emissions processors, i.e. ‘SMOKE’; Testing sensitivities & simulating WRAP ‘96 fire emissions; Compare simulated emissions with WRAP ’96 Fire Emissions results; Adding smoke emissions into regional modeling (REMSAD & CMAQ); Finding adequate input data for years since 1996.Finding adequate input data for years since 1996.