2. The History of the Future The present and how we got here Some clues about thriving in the 21 st century

3. www.internationalfuturesforum.com www.afternow.org.uk

4. “The art of prophecy is very difficult especially with respect to the future” Mark Twain

5. Learning “Brain work will cause women to go bald” Prof Hans Friedenthal 1914

6. Entertainment “Speaking movies are impossible. When a century has passed, all thought of so- called speaking movies will have been abandoned” D.W. Griffith Hollywood Producer

7. Work “By 1960, Work will be limited to three hours a day” John Langdon-Davies 1936

8. Communications Technology “ We are not going to make personal computers. There is a market for only five of them worldwide” Thos Watson IBM, 1956 “An amazing invention, but who would ever want to use one of them” President Hayes to AG Bell, 1876 “One day there will be one of them in every City” Chicago 1873

9. Transport “ The improvement in city conditions by the general adoption of the motor car can hardly be overestimated. Streets clean, dustless and odourless, with light rubber- tyred vehicles moving swiftly and noiselessly over their smooth expanse….” Scientific American 1899 Cars moving swiftly and noiselessly

10. Surgery “The abolition of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go on seeking it today. Knife and pain are two words in surgery that must forever be associated in the patient’s awareness” Dr. Alfred Velpeau 1839, seven years before the intro of anaesthesia

11. Health “ A child born in the year 2000 has a good chance of not dying at all” Jaques Bergier, 1968

12. Health “We just won’t have arthritis in the year 2000” Dr William Clark, President of the Arthritis Foundation, 1966

14. Co-Creating Our Future The future is not some place we are going, but one we are creating. The paths to it are not found but made, and the activity of making them changes both the maker and the destination. John Schaar Science Advisor President Richard Nixon Foresight Canada

15. Develop a future consciousness to inform the present www.internationalfuturesforum.com

16. How did we get here?

17. 1750 2050 1800 1900 19502000 1800 1900 1950 2000 Enlightenment Materialism Modernism Three broad idea waves, four broad Public Health policy waves

18. Costing an arm and a leg For how long? Cost of NHS time one arm One leg Two arms one leg two arms two legs actual envisaged Desired?

19. The (really) big picture

21. www.internationalfuturesforum.com Source: The Guardian, summer 2007

22. www.internationalfuturesforum.com “If you read only one book this year about the end of civilisation, let this be it.” Quill and Quire

23. External world changes Internal world must catch up Alignment Dislocated

24. The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear. …A Change of Age….

26. Zinn Join all the dots Four lines No lifting pencil No retracing steps

27. 1. the “ globalization ” of everyday life Cognitive Spatial Temporal Materialism Individualism Consumerism DETERRITORIALISATION Kickbusch

28. Political determinants…… 1. The redirection of global health functions from interstate mechanisms to a growing but fragmented group of actors From the center….. Kickbusch

29. …..to a fragmented POLITICAL ECOSYSTEM BONO CLINTON MSF WEF PHA World Bank Kickbusch

30. Healthscapes: Food – Drink - Obesity Kickbusch

31. (O’Hara)

33. Control Homogenisation Abstraction Fragmentation Alienation Participation Diversity Inclusion Fear Love Disappointment and fear Hope and play Participation Giving & Receiving Exploration Imagination Participation Qualitative Control Production & Consumption Data Prediction Quantative

34. Some characteristics of 5w system? Integrative internal external, objective/subjective Ecological systems and wholeness, social and human Ethical individual human rights integrated with collective dimensions of equity, trust Creative to imagine and then create something better Beautiful raises spirits, sustains moves to act

35. Centre for Medical Humanities Emergent qualities of a ‘fifth wave’ 1.Complex adaptive systems with multiple points of equilibrium 2.Rebalancing our mindset – ‘anti’ to ‘pro’, from dominion and independence to interdependence and co-operation 3.Rebalance models – mechanistic to organic 4.Rebalance our orientation – objective to subjective 5.Develop a future consciousness to inform the present 6.Iterate and scale up through learning – try things out and share. Hanlon, et al, 2011

36. Co-creating Health Centre for Integrative Care Glasgow Presence The Dance Mobilising (Inner) Resources Secondary care, primary care, community

38. More dots? No. of dotsNo of possible linksNo of possible patterns 4 6 64 10453.5 trillion (9 zeros) 12644.5 quadrillion (12 zeros)

39. Why do we always learn about Geology the day after an earthquake Ralph Waldo Emerson

40. www.iffpraxis.com

41. time Prevalence/success H1 H2 H3 Three Horizons www.internationalfuturesforum.com Twilight Transitional Transformed

42. Variant 1: Collapse and Recovery In this variant the supremacy of the Horizon 1 paradigm creates runaway success but at the expense of some critical condition. Failure to capture coupled with weaker innovation in Horizon 2 leads to sudden collapse. Horizon 2 is unable to make up for this. In the background Horizon 3 continues to develop and after the initial upset and chaos of the collapse demonstrates its ability to match the new conditions and emerges as the next viable paradigm. PREVALENCE TIME H1 H2 H3

43. Variant 2: Capture and Extension Horizon 1 is challenged by changing conditions and there is strong innovation opportunity taken by Horizon 2. However, each wave of innovation is captured by Horzon 1 and applied to extend its life. This may go on for several cycles. Horizon 3 remains in the background since it is so different from Horizon 1 that there is no place for it in the mainstream. It continues to languish in the margins until a much larger and long term change occurs. PREVALENCE TIME H1 H2 H3

44. time prevalence Three Horizons www.internationalfuturesforum.com H1 concerns H2 innovationsH3 aspirations H3 in the present Stop Keep Twilight Transition Transformed