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Andrew Lyon International Futures Forum www.internationalfuturesforum.com Equally Well East Lothian March 16 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "Andrew Lyon International Futures Forum www.internationalfuturesforum.com Equally Well East Lothian March 16 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 Andrew Lyon International Futures Forum www.internationalfuturesforum.com Equally Well East Lothian March 16 2009

2 The History of the Future The art of prophecy is very difficult especially with respect to the future Mark Twain

3 Learning Brain work will cause women to go bald Prof Hans Friedenthal 1914 Motion Pictures will supplant textbooks Thos Edison,1922

4 Entertainment Speaking movies are impossible. When a century has passed, all thought of so- called speaking movies will have been abandoned D.W. Griffith Hollywood Producer

5 Work By 1960, Work will be limited to three hours a day John Langdon-Davies 1936

6 Communications Technology We are not going to make personal computers. There is a market for only five of them worldwide Thos Watson IBM, 1956 An amazing invention, but who would ever want to use one of them President Hayes to AG Bell, 1876 One day there will be one of them in every City Chicago 1873

7 Transport The improvement in city conditions by the general adoption of the motor car can hardly be overestimated. Streets clean, dustless and odourless, with light rubber- tyred vehicles moving swiftly and noiselessly over their smooth expanse…. Scientific American 1899 Cars moving swiftly and noiselessly

8 Surgery The abolition of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go on seeking it today. Knife and pain are two words in surgery that must forever be associated in the patients awareness Dr. Alfred Velpeau 1839, seven years before the intro of anaesthesia

9 Health A child born in the year 2000 has a good chance of not dying at all Jaques Bergier, 1968

10 Health We just wont have arthritis in the year 2000 Dr William Clark, President of the Arthritis Foundation, 1966

11 Present Past Future Mundane Creative

12 Present Past Future Mundane Creative

13 Present Past Future Mundane Creative

14 Co-Creating Our Future The future is not some place we are going, but one we are creating. The paths to it are not found but made, and the activity of making them changes both the maker and the destination. John Schaar Science Advisor President Richard Nixon Foresight Canada

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16 The (really) big picture

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18 External world changes Internal world must catch up Alignment Dislocated

19 1. the globalization of everyday life Cognitive Spatial temporal DETERRITORIALIZATION Kickbusch

20 …..to a fragmented POLITICAL ECOSYSTEM BONO CLINTON MSF WEF PHA World Bank Kickbusch

21 Healthscapes: Food – Drink - Obesity Kickbusch

22 The World is Very Confusing Place … Courtesy of GBN

23 Ways to Respond

24 Retreat to inside the box

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26 Descent into chaos

27 Emergent new consciousness?

28 Increases in last 15 years New cases of alcoholism -- 67% New cases of migraine headaches 450 % New cases of ulcers 400% Suicide and violence rates up in all developed nations War trauma affects millions globally Divorce rates up everywhere Number of children in single parent homes up Etc. etc.etc

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30 Zinn Join all the dots Four lines No lifting pencil No retracing steps

31 1750 2050 1800 1900 19502000 1800 1900 1950 2000 Enlightenment Materialism Modernism Three broad idea waves, four broad Public Health policy waves

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33 When things go wrong, we do not change our view of the world

34 What Kind of Policy Innovation? Innovation here?

35 Exploit Explore Impact/ Results Concepts/ Knowledge

36 Exploit Explore Impact/ Results Concepts/ Knowledge Problem – Action Research – Options What works? A Policy Cycle Start here

37 Exploit Explore Impact/ Results Concepts/ Knowledge Problem – Action Research – Options What works? An Extended Policy Cycle How are we thinking about this? Start here

38 Control Homogenisation Abstraction Fragmentation Alienation Participation Diversity Inclusion Fear Love Disappointment and fear Hope and play Participation Giving & Receiving Exploration Imagination Participation Qualitative Control Production & Consumption Data Prediction Quantative

39 Insight Common Knowledge Shared Knowledge Agreed Policy Structured Diffused Codification teams Absorption networks Communities Scanning Letting others know Organisations diffusing Max Boisot IFF

40 Learning the Meaning of Life (Carneiro IFF) BeKnowDoLive Together Human Condition Self Other CitizenParticipationRights & Duties CommunityDiversity Cultural Template BelongDialogue Information & Knowldge Process Share Vocational Identity LearnProduceEndeavourConscience Build Wisdom HumanSynthesisHappinessSolidarity

41 BeKnowDoLive Together Human Condition Self Other CitizenParticipationRights & Duties CommunityDiversity Cultural Template BelongDialogue Information & Knowldge Process Share Vocational Identity LearnProduceEndeavourConscience Build Wisdom HumanSynthesisHappinessSolidarity Learning the Meaning of Life (Carneiro IFF)

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43 More dots? No. of dotsNo of possible linksNo of possible patterns 4 6 64 10453.5 trillion (9 zeros) 12644.5 quadrillion (12 zeros)

44 What WE DO, Matters Our world confronts rapid and potentially profound transitions... It is increasingly clear that todays decisions could play a decisive role in determining whether the 21 st Century offers peace and prosperity or crisis and collapse. The Challenge of Long-Term Policy Analysis Rand Corporation

45 Three practical examples

46 Taking stock past, present, future Issue identification, exploring views, assumptions, challenges Relevant Site Visits, discovery, sensing observation followed by reflection on and analysis of challenges Reframing of original issues in the light of new insight and perspectives Reframe action, policy, direction Four phases of a Learning Journey Types of Activity I II III IV Form team, initial workshop Issue identification Field trips + reflection +refocus on issues Flesh out perspectives and ideas Reporting, new action Ideas based on learning, Testing Learning Journey

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49 Positive Deviance In every community and organisation there are people whose uncommon behaviours or practices enable them to do better than their colleagues or neighbours with the same resources. How do we find out what these are and encourage and support others to do similarly?

50 Six Ds Define the problem, define what success looks like Determine if anyone/anywhere exhibits this already Discover the practices which support their success Design and implement activities which enable others Discern effectiveness Disseminate to others Examples Vietnam, MRSA in the USA More at www.positivedeviance.orgwww.positivedeviance.org Podcast at www.gcph.org.ukwww.gcph.org.uk

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52 Why do we always learn about Geology the day after an earthquake Ralph Waldo Emerson

53 Develop a future consciousness to inform the present www.internationalfuturesforum.com

54 The Context East Lothian in a changing, world PESTL etc Ways Through Aspiration Examples Nuts and Bolts Actions Networks Learning Applying Stuck in survival mode Defensive routines Utopia Trap Sharing possibilities Reframing resources Silos too difficult Fail to learn Sacred Cows Negativity Preconceptions advances Failure of Imagination Withdrawal Global Local Equally well for a Changing World


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