1. Anne Misra15 th May 2012, Bern UK Projections

2. What’s in this presentation  Overview of UK Projections  Underlying models o UK Emissions Inventory o DECC Energy Model

3. Overview of UK Projections 1 The work is funded by Defra, DECC and Devolved Administrations  Methodology: E proj = (A 2010 * AD) * EF proj Where E = emission, A = activity, AD = activity driver and EF = emission factor Pollutant Emissions in 2010 (kt) Gothenburg Protocol target in 2010 (kt) NECD Emissions ceiling target in 2010 (kt) NOx1,1061,1811,167 SO 2 406625585 NMVOCs7891,200 NH 3 284297

4. Overview of UK Projections 2  GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS: THE “WITH MEASURES” PROJECTIONS SCENARIO o Only consider firm and funded polices o All operators comply with new legislation o New abatement is applied to sources in order to meet the limits imposed by new regulations or in response to the impacts of trading mechanisms

5. Overview of UK Projections 3  Data sources: o UK National Atmospheric Emission Inventory (NAEI) o The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) Updated Energy Projections o The Department for Transport (DfT) 2011 traffic forecasts, COPERT IV emission factors for NOx and NH3 and Transport Research Laboratory (TRL), Transport for London (TfL) o updated projections of livestock numbers and fertiliser use to 2030 using data derived from the FAPRI agricultural model by Queens University Belfast on behalf of Defra

6. UK Emissions Inventory 1 AMEC, Aether, SKM Enviros http://naei.defra.gov.uk/ http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/reports/cat07/1203221052_UK_IIR_2012_final.pdf

7. UK Emissions Inventory 2  Methods and data source o For activity data: UK Statistics Process operators or trade associations (ETS EU) Estimated Activity data o For emission factors: Operator emissions data UK-specific methodology based emission factors Estimated emission factors (http://naei.defra.gov.uk/data_warehouse.php)

8. The DECC Energy & Emissions Projections Model  Developed by the UK Department for Climate Change  Core analytical and modelling tool for total UK CO 2 projections  Model of the whole UK energy market, providing conditional forecasts of future energy use and associated CO 2 emissions  Single Market Equilibrium Model o A mathematical representation of the UK energy market in equilibrium ( UK energy demand = UK energy supply)  Mostly top-down rather than bottom up equations o top-down models represent aggregate demand http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/11/about-us/economics-social-research/3134- updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-october.pdf

9. Planned Improvements Task Further Embedding of Technology Infrastructure for Projection Scenarios into the NAEI. Aim To update the current projections database to include technology and policy and measure level details for a number of key sectors (Power Stations, Cement & Lime, Domestic and Road Transport) and to develop a framework/methodology for including all others sectors over a period of time as funds allow at a later date. The focus is on the NECD pollutants and PM.

10. AEA 6 New Street Square London EC4A 3BF Tel: +44 (0)870 190 2963 E: Anne.Misra@aeat.co.uk W: www.aeat.co.uk Copyright AEA Technology plc This presentation is submitted by AEA. It may not be used for any other purposes, reproduced in whole or in part, nor passed to any organisation or person without the specific permission in writing of the Commercial Manager, AEA Technology plc.