1. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 Improving Air Quality in the enlarged EU: Workshop on Plans and Programmes of Air Quality and National Emission Ceilings Directives The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy Giuliana Gasparrini 1, Mario Contaldi 2, Tiziano Pignatelli 3, Giovanni Vialetto 3 1 Ministry for the Environment and Territory 2 APAT – Agency for the Protection of the Environment and the Territory 3 ENEA - Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment

2. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy Goals of the Lisbon Agenda Full employment, Economic growth, Sustainable development Climate Change constraints Kyoto Protocol Targets on GHG emissions International Framework NEC Directive Requirements Gothenburg Protocol Targets Local and Regional Environmental Constraints

3. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy 2004 Updated estimations of Economic Growth indicators in Italy (energy data estimated by MARKAL - Trend Energy Scenario) Time range 1970- 1980 1980- 1990 1990- 2000 2000- 2010 2010- 2020 2020- 2030 GDP 3,6%2,3%1,6%1,8%2.0%1.5% Primary Energy 2,1%1,1%1,3%1.2%0,8%0,4% GDP energy intensity -1,5%-1,2%-0,3%-0,6%-1,2%-1,1% Oil price(constant currency) 0%1%2% Conservative assumptions in respect to the Lisbon Agenda goals Yearly average changes (%)

4. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy CO 2 Emissions (provisional results by MARKAL - Trend Energy Scenario)* Year 19902000200520102015202020252030 CO2 from energy, IPCC-OECD meth.Mton 408437446476503508518530 National Allocation Plan (Directive 2003/87/EC) * to be revised according the new data collected through a bottom-up approach

5. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

6. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

7. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 NEC Pollutant Emission Scenarios 1)Developed through Integrated Assessment Modelling. The RAINS-Italy Model, developed on behalf of the Italian Ministry for the Environment and the Protection of the Territory, within a joint Research Project ENEA- IIASA. 2)Based upon a coherent national framework: the National Energy Scenario, by the Markal-Italy model, the projections of the activity levels and the abatement technologies, (according the provisions of the Current Legislation (CLE Scenarios) The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

8. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy NOx Emission Scenario (CAFE Programme, April 2004) Provisional estimates by Markal based on updated economic growth assumptions, still in progress, show a slight increase of NOx emissions in the 2010-2030 period.

9. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy SOx Emission Scenario (CAFE Programme) Provisional estimates by Markal based on updated economic growth assumptions, still in progress, don’t show any effect on SOx emissions.

10. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy NH 3 Emission Scenario (CAFE Programme)

11. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy VOC Emission Scenario (National Programmes, 2003)

12. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy Expected reduction of NO x emissions from additional measures, as considered in the National Programme  Ship – introduction of low NOx ship engines  Road transport – introduction of incentives for private and public fleets renewal, for low or zero emissions vehicles (NG and LPG fuelled, hybrid and electric vehicles), and disincentives to limit the private traffic in urban areas etc  Industrial processes – implementation of IPPC Directive and introduction of the limit values stated in the Gothenburg Protocol  Energy sector – improving energy efficiency in the end use and diffusion of renewable to implement Kyoto Protocol

13. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy Expected reduction of NH 3 emissions from additional measures, as considered in the National Plan Agricultural sector – diffusion of abatement emission systems into the livestock farms, - reduction in the use of nitrogen fertilisers, - diffusion of less emissive systems in the manure spreading - Measures expected from the implementation of the IPPC Directive, the Gothenburg Protocol and the Kyoto Protocol

14. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy Conclusions The environmental pillar of sustainable development should be fully integrate with the economic and social ones in order to ensure that relevant objectives and strategies are set up consistently. In the case of the Kyoto Protocol strategy the use of flexible mechanisms and EU ETS for compliance purposes is consistent with this approach. In the case of NECs directive the range of instruments for compliance is limited in respect to the Kyoto Protocol. Furthermore the 2010 emission ceilings could result rather ambitious in respect to the economic growth expectations of Member States according to national circumstances. Possibly, an underestimation of emissions projects, linked to socio-economic factors when 2010 NECs were defined, could bring to additional efforts and costs, not considered when the directive was approved, will be requested.

15. Brussels, 1-2 September 2004 The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy Conclusions The revision of the NEC directive already in progress in the context of the CAFE gives the opportunity to improve the process in particular giving more consideration to input data and trends provided by Member States. It’s essential for a balanced decisional process that all the scenarios produced during the revision process of the NEC Directive (based both on EU and national data and trends) are equally considered.