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IFS The public finances Christine Frayne. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Outline Current receipts –Short term forecast revised down –Medium term.

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Presentation on theme: "IFS The public finances Christine Frayne. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Outline Current receipts –Short term forecast revised down –Medium term."— Presentation transcript:

1 IFS The public finances Christine Frayne

2 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Outline Current receipts –Short term forecast revised down –Medium term level unchanged Current spending –Short term forecast unchanged –Medium term slightly higher Golden rule –Treasury expects to be met –Small margin of error

3 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 New measures 2004-052005-062006-072007-08 Tax-195225470650 £ million

4 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 New measures 2004-052005-062006-072007-08 Tax-195225470650 Spend520590695995 £ million

5 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 New measures 2004-052005-062006-072007-08 Tax-195225470650 Spend520590695995 Extra borrowing 715365225335 £ million

6 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Non-discretionary changes 2004- 05 2005- 06 2006- 07 2007- 08 2008- 09 Current receipts -2 0-½ Note: Excludes change in classification of NHS trusts

7 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Non-discretionary changes 2004- 05 2005- 06 2006- 07 2007- 08 2008- 09 Current receipts -2 0-½ Current spend -0.8-2½½ Note: Excludes change in classification of NHS trusts

8 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Non-discretionary changes 2004- 05 2005- 06 2006- 07 2007- 08 2008- 09 Current receipts -2 0-½ Current spend -0.8-2½½ PSNI-0.71½2½0 Note: Excludes change in classification of NHS trusts

9 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Non-discretionary changes 2004- 05 2005- 06 2006- 07 2007- 08 2008- 09 Current receipts -2 0-½ Current spend -0.8-2½½ PSNI-0.71½2½0 TME-1.5½01½ Note: Excludes change in classification of NHS trusts

10 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Revenue projections Source: HM Treasury

11 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Receipts bouncing back? Growth in net taxes and social security contributions in 2004–05 Source: HM Treasury

12 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Spending projections Source: HM Treasury

13 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Current spending growth slowing? Growth in central government current spending, (including depreciation) in 2004–05 Source: HM Treasury

14 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 The Chancellor’s fiscal rules Golden rule: only borrow to invest –Receipts cover current spending –Surplus or balance on current budget –Judged over the economic cycle Sustainable investment rule: debt at a ‘stable and prudent’ level, <40% of national income

15 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Current budget surpluses Source: HM Treasury

16 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Current budget surpluses Source: HM Treasury Current economic cycle

17 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Meeting the golden rule? (1) Average current budget surplus 1999–2000 to 2005–06, as a share of national income

18 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Meeting the golden rule? (1) Average current budget surplus 1999–2000 to 2005–06, as a share of national income £124bn £98bn £45bn£8bn£5bn

19 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Meeting the golden rule? (1) Average current budget surplus 1999–2000 to 2005–06, as a share of national income £5bn

20 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Meeting the golden rule? (1) Average current budget surplus 1999–2000 to 2005–06, as a share of national income £5bn£8bn

21 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Meeting the golden rule? (1) Average current budget surplus 1999–2000 to 2005–06, as a share of national income £5bn£8bn–£6bn

22 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Meeting the golden rule? (1) Average current budget surplus 1999–2000 to 2005–06, as a share of national income £5bn£8bn–£6bn–£2bn

23 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Meeting the golden rule? (2) Source: HM Treasury Cyclically adjusted current budget surplus, as a share of national income

24 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Meeting the golden rule? (2) Source: HM Treasury Cyclically adjusted current budget surplus, as a share of national income

25 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Meeting the golden rule? (2) Source: HM Treasury Cyclically adjusted current budget surplus, as a share of national income Current cycle

26 © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2004 Meeting the golden rule? (2) Source: HM Treasury Cyclically adjusted current budget surplus, as a share of national income Next cycle

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