1. Migration and Household Welfare in Ethiopia Lisa Andersson, University of Gothenburg Katie Kuschminder, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance

2. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance Migration and Household Welfare 1.Loss of Labour from household 2.Remittances 3.Return Migration: –Return of Success –Return of Failure

3. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance Return Migration and Household Welfare Less evidence than in the case of remittances Human and Social Capital Accumulation Kilic et al. (2009) found a strong, positive relation between past (return) migration and non-farm business ownership in Albania- increased for people who did not return from Greece

4. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance Remittances and Household Welfare Macro level- remittances lead to positive economic growth Adams and Page, 2005- “a 10% increase in per capita official international remittances in a developing country will lead to a 3.5% decline in the share of people living on less than $1.00/person/day” Hildebrandt and McKenzie, 2004 – children born in international migration households are 3% less likely to die in their first year than children in non- migration households.

5. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance Literature Gaps Remittances – Little evidence on the household effect in Sub-Saharan Africa Still questions as to how return migration affects the household Comparability between non-migrant, current migrant, remittance receiving, and return migrant households

6. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance Case Study: Ethiopia Population of 80 million Emigration rate of 0.4% Estimated Diaspora Population of 1-2 Million Remittances 2010- $0.4 Billion Remittances estimated at 2.2% of GDP Diaspora Largely concentrated in Middle East, North America, and Europe Ranks 169 on the HDI

7. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance IS Academy Survey: Ethiopia 1226 Household Surveys 15 Sites in 5 regions Purposive Two-stage Sampling Strategy –15 Woredas Selected and 3 Kebeles in each Woreda Listed Random Selection of Households for Enumeration

8. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance

9. Descriptive Statistics All CM HHs Unique CM HHs All RR HHs Unique RR HHs All RM HHs Unique RMS HHs NM HHs All HHs n 406156271331611216651225 % 33.1212.7222.102.6913.139.8754.24100 Average HH Size 6.366.255.75.34.95.4 Urban (n) 16152119157950211442 %39.6633.3343.9145.4549.0741.3231.7336.08 Addis (n)5221399291994177 %12.8113.4614.3927.2718.0115.7014.1414.45

10. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance Descriptive Statistics All CM HHs Unique CM HHs All RR HHs Unique RR HHs All RM HHs Unique RMS HHs NM HHs All HHs HHs with Children (n) 2921082022512287496906 %71.9269.2374.5475.7675.7871.9074.5973.96 Ave No. Of Children 2.42.52.42.6 2.7 2.6 HHs with Young Children 53213883529141232 %13.0513.4614.0224.2421.7423.9721.2018.94 Average No. Of Working Age in HH (18-65) 3.93.73.82.73.32.92.63.1 Average No. Of Working Age in HH (14-65) 4.54.34.43.13.83.43.13.6

11. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance Descriptive Statistics: HH Head All CM HHs Unique CM HHs All RR HHs Unique RR HHs All RM HHs Unique RMS HHs NM HHs All HHs HH Head Migration Experience 2510 090660115 %6.166.413.690.0055.9054.550.009.39 Years of Education of HH head 4.194.24.66.814.474.274.124.25 Age of HH Head 54.435253.945.3651.6549.0747.8350.04 Female HH Head 14752102104626217403 %36.2133.3337.6430.3028.5721.4932.6332.90 HH Head Farmer 141608485444237431 % 34.7338.4631.0024.2433.5436.3635.6435.18 HH Head Employed 46253181310119185 %11.3316.0311.4424.248.078.2617.8915.10

12. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance Migration Destination and Remittances Migration Destination Number of MigrantsRemittances (Birr, past 12 months) Middle East231 (45.5%)6803 Africa102 (20.1%)3585 Europe34 (6.7%)14203 North America106 (20.9%)15129 Other21 (4.2%)- Total49414520

13. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance CoefficientStandard Deviation Size**.2664753.072892 Children**-.2179473.0681162 Youngchild-.1148455.1293661 Workingage2-.063594.0651691 Urban**.364238.1369023 Primary.0448762.1839283 Secondary-.0151668.2203479 Higher-.0072896.3261758 Eduyear.0181983.016052 Headage.0010577.0039869 Gender-.2083357.1168207 Employed**-.4072034.1695413 Business**-.6038059.1612211 Agricultural-.1565729.1503318 Housework-.2485482.1627678 Amhara.2276191.1673608 Tigray.3047105.1703395 SNNP**.3927394.1856166 Oromiya**.3417249.1670741 _cons-1.75596.2790979

14. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance Coefficient Standard Deviation Size**.2503439.0709807 Children** -.2021814.0666013 Youngchild -.113646.1264231 Workingage2 -.0421193.0634013 Urban**.2607733.1112215 Primary -.0549576.1807062 Secondary -.0199543.2141086 Higher -.0592852.3167139 Eduyear.0132747.0154802 Headage -.0015558.0037794 Employed** -.5191225.1541103 Business** -.6714826.1499707 Agricultural -.2949744.1230465 Housework -.2973032.1539694

15. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance CoefficientStandard Deviation Size**.2523373.0716462 Children**-.2113543.0670449 youngchild-.1125477.1265045 workingage2-.0485789.0643349 Urban**.4106147.1336053 primary-.0535971.1825746 secondary-.003845.2172137 higher.0051831.3192276 eduyear.0121978.0156656 headage-.001866.0038501 employed-.5212362.1547323 Business**-.6995102.1515461 Agricultural**-.2919443.129485 Housework**-.3165302.1554764 Amhara.2275308.1619091 Tigray*.2936102.1659209 SNNP**.4208115.1819743 Oromiya*.3117498.162207

16. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance Discussion Probability to remit is: –More likely if have large household size –Less likely if have children –More likely if live in an Urban Area –Less likely if the HH Head has employment –Less likely if the HH Head owns their own business

17. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance Next Steps Propensity Score Matching: –Remittance Receiving Households to Non- Migrant HHs –Question regarding Return Migration Look further at the effect of migration on welfare using food expenditure per capita or per adult equivalent Comparability between the different groups

18. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance Thank you! Lisa.andersson@economics.gu.se Katie.kuschminder@maastrichtuniversity.nl