1. Determinants of Poverty Depth among Households in Rural and Urban Nigeria Awopeju Samson O. (Corvinus University&UniBonn/ Regional Support Consultant UNCCD) Prof. Imre Ferto (Corvinus University, Budapest, Hungary) Presentation at the EADI 14 th GENERAL CONFERENCE, JUNE, BONN, 2014.

2. 2 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 OUTLINE  Introduction  Objective.  Methodology-study area, data sources, analytical methods.  Results and Discussions  Conclusions

3. 3 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 INTRODUCTION  An estimated 1.2 billion people are still living below $1.25 a day in developing countries- (World-Bank press release 2013).  Sub Saharan Africa as a continent has a tragic record of highest incidence of poverty, currently at 48 percent of its population. In 1991 poverty was 58 percent. (World-Bank press release 2013). Some Good News  The number of people living on less than $1.25 per day has declined dramatically in the past three decades.  From half the citizens in the developing world in 1981 to 21 percent in 2010 despite a 59 percent increase in the developing world population. (World-Bank press release 2013).

4. 4 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 BUT???  Not every developing nations has witnessed steady decrease in poverty. NIGERIA is a good example. PARADOX !  A nation blessed with major economic resources that drive global economy Petroleum, tin, columbite, iron ore, coal, limestone, lead, zinc, natural gas and forests and good Agricultural lands).  Currently largest economy in Africa Source: Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics

5. 5 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 OBJECTIVE Central focus : examine the determinants of poverty status among households in Nigeria both at the national and sectorial level employing household socio- economic and regional characteristics. Specifically the study:  Estimated incidences, depth and severity of poverty among Nigerians at the national, rural and urban regions.  Assessed the determinants of poverty depth among households in Nigeria at the national level.  Examined the determinants of poverty depth among households in Nigeria at both the rural and urban sectors

6. 6 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 Motivation for the study  National Burea of statistics NBS (Nigeria) utilized National Consumption Expenditure survey data 2009/2010 --------to estimate poverty incidence for Nigeria but did not capture depth, severity and determinants of poverty.  This study is an attempt to fill that gap, by estimating the depth, severity and determinants of poverty at the rural, urban and national level. Data : 2009/2010 Consumption Expenditure Survey (38,700 households) from National Bureau of Statistics NBS, Nigeria. Limitation  At the time study was conducted there was no access to Harmonized National Living Standard Survey (HNLSS) which includes other welfare variables like education status, assets of households, access to credits e.t.c  The study employed relative poverty line though absolute poverty line is considered better and more objective.

7. 7 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUE

8. 8 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUE

9. 9 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS Source: own computation based on National Consumption Expenditure Data 2009/2010

10. 10 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS Source: own computation based on National Consumption Expenditure Data 2009/2010

11. 11 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 VariablesCoefficients t-ratio Household Size0.091251284.27** * Gender(Male)-0.037855-3.78* * Age of household head0.00467645.36** * Total Remittances Received-3.57e-8-9.31** * Marital Status0.01050121.03 North -Central-0.1051182-13.23 ** * South -East-0.1361191-15.50** * South -South-0.0693516-8.26** * South West-0.047192-5.32** * Sector (Rural)0.201771632.52 Log Likelihood = -16105.212, Pseudo R2 = 0.2763, Prob > Chi2 = 0.0000 Determinants of Poverty Depth in Nigeria Notes: ***t-ratio Significant at 1% level, ** significant at 5% level

12. 12 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 VariablesCoefficients t-ratio Household Size0.089647677.54** * Gender(Male)-0.0244319-2.15* * Age of household head0.00604936.40** * Total Remittances Received-0.0000000291-6.65** * Marital Status0.01561361.38 North -Central-0.1048941-12.73 ** * South -East-0.1367113-14.82** * South -South-0.0628685-7.18** * South West-0.0375136-3.49** * Log Likelihood = -12242.307, Pseudo R2 = 0.2663, Prob > Chi2 = 0.0000 Determinants of Poverty Depth in Rural Nigeria Notes: ***t-ratio Significant at 1% level, ** significant at 5% level

13. 13 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 Variables Coefficients t-ratio Household Size0.102383833.61*** Gender-0.0724538-3.24*** Total Remittances Received-5.57E-08-6.50*** Age of household head-0.0005749-0.25 Marital Status-0.0130128-0.54 North -Central-0.1252555-4.63*** North -West-0.1314371-5.04*** South -East-0.1331358-4.68*** South -South-0.1167776-4.16*** South West-0.0996916-4.17*** Log Likelihood = -3766.883, Pseudo R2 = 0.1979, Prob > Chi2 = 0.0000 Determinants of Poverty Depth in Urban Nigeria Notes: ***t-ratio Significant at 1% level

14. 14 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 CONCLUSIONS  Study found out that male headed households were better off than their female counterparts in reducing poverty status.  Poverty is more predominant in rural Nigeria and living in rural areas aggravates the poverty situation of households.  Northern Nigeria is poorer than Southern Nigeria.  Larger household size had a positive and significant impact on poverty status of households.  Remittances received by households had a negative and significant effect on poverty status of households although the impact is weak. *Further study is required to include other important variables

15. 15 EADI-GC2014, 2 July, 2015 Thank you for your attention!