1. Grzegorz Dobroczek National Bank of Poland
New Polish estimation method based on migration statistics and migrant surveys International Technical Meeting on Measuring Remittances June , Washington DC
Grzegorz Dobroczek
National Bank of Poland

2. Agenda Migration pattern after EU accession New estimation method
UK & Ireland - Survey among Polish migrants
Germany – compensation of employees
Other countries
Funds transferred to Poland

3. Migration pattern after EU accession
The stock of Polish migrants abroad (in thous.)
Source: Polish Central Statistical Office
Since Poland joined the EU, we have observed a strong growth of labor emigration and also its reorientation.
While few years ago the most significant country of destination was Germany, its importance decreased in favour of the United Kingdom and Ireland - two countries that opened their labor market as early as in May 2004.
Source: Polish Central Statistical Office

4. New estimation method
The new estimation method rests to a great extent on determining:
number of Poles working abroad,
period of their employment
the level of their compensation
their inclinations to transfer the money to Poland
Estimation process has been divided into two parts
part one – separate estimations for the United Kingdom, Ireland and Germany - countries of the greatest significance
part two - estimations for all other countries

5. NBP Survey in the United Kingdom & Ireland
Designed by the NBP and conducted for the first time during the summer 2007 by a private market research company.
The sample size was equal in both countries Polish migrants in the United Kingdom and 800 in Ireland.
The survey was carried out for the second time in October and November Polish migrants in the United Kingdom and 1000 in Ireland.
To get more reliable results the sample was stratified according to age and regional distribution.
The survey was carried out in a households as a face-to-face interview.
The questionnaire was divided into two parts:
migrants’ characteristics
transfers’ characteristics

6. Polish migrants in the United Kingdom & Ireland
Gender structure
Education structure
Age structure
Polish migrants in the UK & Ireland are rather young and well educated
Length of current migration
The greatest part of Polish migrants have already spent between 1 and 3 years in the UK & Ireland
Over 40% plan to remain for more than 3 years.
Source: own calculation based on NBP Survey made in 2007

7. Remittances from the United Kingdom and Ireland
The volume of last transfer from Ireland (€)
Do you send money to Poland?
Mean = 1300 €
The volume of last transfer from the United Kingdom (£)
Mean = 410 £
The fraction of remitters is higher in Ireland
The average transfer is also higher from Ireland
Source: own calculation based on the NBP Survey made in 2007

8. Estimation method The NBP’s method of estimation:
In case of workers remittances’ crucial deductions from the survey are: - - the size of fraction of migratns who remit
- the size of average transfers in quarter.
The NBP’s method of estimation:
workers remmitances’ = level of long-term migration (workers) * fraction of migrants who remit * average transfer
Compensation of employees= level of short-term migration (workers) *wages
Expenditure by seasonal and border workers=
level of short-term migration(workers) *spendings abroad
Taxes paid by seasonal and border workers (other private transfers)=
level of short-term migration(workers) *taxes

9. Germany – compensation of employees
Since Poland joined the EU (2004), we have observed a decline of short-term emigration.
Polish migration to Germany has short-term character (mainly seasonal workers in agriculture).
German labour market in not open for Polish workers, so we have administrative data – number of work licences for Polish workers.

10. Estimation for other countries
Major data source is migrants statistics (Polish CSO):
- number of Polish migrants,
- fraction of migrants who stay abroad less then 12 months (about 50%) and more than 12 months.
- fraction of migrats who work abroad
Crucial assumptions (based on NBP’s survey):
Workers remittances:
- size of fraction of migratns who remit (40,1%)
- size of average transfer (38% of wages)
- wages (20% more then minimal wage)
Compensation of employees:
- interpolation of migrants statistics based on LFS (CSO)
- migrants work for 1.5 months in quarter
- size of expediture abroad (in ,3% of net wages)
- taxes (in ,2%)

11. Funds transferred to Poland
Transfers* to Poland against Polish workers earnings abroad (in EUR million)
In 2008 EUR 5 bilon has been transferred to Poland by Poles working abroad.
In 2002 – 2008 the fastest increase has been observed in transfers from the United Kingdom and Ireland.
In 2007 transfers from those countries were the biggest and amounted to EUR 1.3 and EUR 1.2 billion respectively.
Source: NBP Balance of Payments
* Transfers = workers remmitances plus net compensation of employes (excluding taxes & accomodation abroad)

12. Thank you for your attention!