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2 Commodities Covered US Natural Gas US Electricity Global Crude Oil US Diesel.

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Presentation on theme: "2 Commodities Covered US Natural Gas US Electricity Global Crude Oil US Diesel."— Presentation transcript:

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2 2 Commodities Covered US Natural Gas US Electricity Global Crude Oil US Diesel

3 3 Natural Gas

4 4 Price History

5 5 US Production Pullback

6 6 Canada Production Decline to Continue

7 7 Global LNG Supply to Increase in 2009

8 8 Weather-Driven Heating Demand

9 9 Gas-Fired Generation Capacity Growth 2009 EIA Estimates

10 10 Recession Hinders Industrial Activity

11 11 US Natural Gas Price Forecast

12 12 Electric Power

13 13 Power Generation by Source TexasCalifornia New YorkPJM

14 14 Northern California 2009 Forwards

15 15 ERCOT 2009 On-Peak Wholesale Forwards

16 16 New York Zone J 2009 On-Peak Forwards

17 17 PJM (PA-NJ-MD) 2009 On-Peak Forwards

18 18 Crude Oil

19 19 Price History

20 20 OECD Demand Plummets

21 21 China Signals Non-OECD Weakness

22 22 Non-Opec Supply Growth Struggles

23 23 Opec Cuts Aggressively *Bloomberg Data

24 24 Strong US Crude Oil Stock Position

25 25 Crude Oil Price Forecast

26 26 Diesel Fuel

27 27 Where to Watch

28 28 Decoupling Falls Apart - China

29 29 Chinese Diesel Demand Falters

30 30 Has China Stabilized?

31 31 Still Awaiting the US Turnaround…

32 32 Demand Growth Depends on Econ Recovery

33 33 Retail Diesel Price Forecast

34 34 Overview The deteriorating economy has reduced the demand outlook for natural gas, particularly by the industrial sector. Weak pricing and tighter credit conditions have reduced the supply outlook. As a result, the supply/demand balance is expected to be tight, providing support to prices from currently weak levels. Look for most deregulated power markets to largely follow the natural gas market, although some regional nuances could drive prices for short periods of time near settlement. The global recession is weighing heavily on global oil demand and prices. Low prices create a challenging environment for supply development, however, which sets the stage for a strong price recovery when demand returns. Global diesel prices will continue to perform poorly as long as the global economy is in a tailspin. Once economic growth stabilizes, we expect the market to begin to recover in fairly short order.

35 35 Tim Statts Vice President, Risk Management tstatts@summitenergy.com www.summitenergy.com 502.753.3148


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