1. The 29th Conference ARAB-ACRAO 29 March - 3 April 2009 Comparison of Student Flow in Different Colleges of Kuwait University Using Absorbing Markov Analysis Dr. Shafiqah A. Al-Awadhi Deanship of Admission & Registration Kuwait University

2.  The rapid expansion of programs, departments and colleges in Kuwait University in terms of both size and quality has had a profound impact on the entire society.  The economic and social needs associated with higher educational institutions have caused many segments of Kuwaiti public to observe the performance of these organizations with renewed and increased interest.  The higher education process demand a greater proportion of the country's financial resources. INTRODUCTION

3. The questions under consideration for the study: 1)What is the probability that a student who has been admitted to any college specifically and KU generally will graduate? 2)What is the probability that a student who has been admitted to any college specifically and KU generally will withdraw? 3)What is the average life time a student spends at each level? 4)What is the probability that a student who has been admitted will transfer between colleges?

4. The questions under consideration for the study: 5)What are the factors that affect the student life times at any level in KU ? 6)What is the probability that a student will progress to a next level ? 7)Are there any differences between colleges in students‘ life times spent in each level? 8)Are there any differences between levels in students' life times in each college? 9)Are there any differences between probabilities of graduatingand dropping out between scientific and art colleges?

5. The graduation process World W/O a degree High school graduates KU College From the same college To a  college Entering freshmen Graduate Transfer Exit

6. Student flow in Faculty of Science Science College Allied health Law Literature Islamic studies Social sciences Education Administrative Sciences Engineering College of Women World without a degree KU graduate High School Outside of KU Transfer Admission Exit

7. academic year 1996/1997 to 2004/2005 We investigated the flow of students in Kuwait University via Markov Analysis. Science 15.9% 1100 students Education 16.6% Engineering 11.5% Administrativ e Sciences 12.4% Social Sciences 7.4% law 4.9% Shareea’ 6.2% Medicine 2.6% P harmacy 0.8% Dentist 0.5% Allied health 3% Arts 15.5%

8. sample size of each college

9. Credit Hours in KU  The regular registered credit hours are between 15 and 19 per semester but it is not allowed to be less than 12 credits.  In summer semester it is allowed to be between 3 and 9 credit hours.  To graduate from different colleges are:

10. Graduate requirement 153 credit Law 126 credit Social Sciences Allied Health 130 credit Business Administration 142 credit Sharee’a 144 credit Engineer 129 credit Science More than 154credit Medical Colleges 132 credit Education Arts

11. Status Freshman < 30 credit hrs Sophomore 31-60 credit hrs Junior 61-90 credit hrs Senior >90 credit hrs Dropped out Not registered Graduate

12. F : Freshman, a student who successfully completed less than 30 credit hours. So : Sophomore, a student who successfully completed between 31-60 credit hours. J : Junior, a student who successfully completed between 61-90 credit hours. Se : Senior, a student who successfully completed more than 90 credit hours. G : Graduated from the Faculty of Science. O : Dropped out or academically dismissed from Kuwait University. NR : Not registered, perhaps to take care of personal problems, but eventually will return to the system T : Transferred between the colleges in Kuwait University. Each state is classified as follows:

13. P(X n+1 = j | X 0 = x 0,..., X n-1 = x n-1, X n = i) = P(X n+1 = j | X n = i) = P ij A stochastic process with the following property is called a Markov chain. A Markov chain of 7 states is identified for the study.

14. P = = (P ij ) Transition probability matrix

15. Canonical form of the transition matrix If T denotes the set of transient states

16. Freshmen

17. NR Sophomore Freshmen Sophomore NR

18. Junior Out

19. 111 21 11 11 F So J Se G NR O F So J Se G NR O Frequency transition data for the case study

20. 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 A =∑ S i 1 + 0 + 1 …. s1 s3 s2 1 + 1+ 1 …. ….

21. 14257540061045 0900672034021 0059157726110 0001260745611 2021291633011 000004570 000000100 F So J Se NR G O F So J Se NR GOGO 1425 900 Frequency transition data of 1100 random sample of students from Kuwait University

22. GOFSoJSeNR G1000000 O0100000 F00.020.620.33000.03 So00.0100.550.4100.02 J00.01000.490.480.02 Se0.260.010000.730 NR00.090.150.160.220.120.25 Canonical form of transition probability matrix P

23. U = Probability matrix U The probabilities of graduating or dropping out starting at a given level for the data

24. M = The matrix M The average number of semesters required for graduation starting from any levels of study

25. ArtsSocialLawBus’nsEdnShariaSciEngMedAllied F0.560.590.610.55 0.530.710.590.500.60 So0.560.550.630.480.510.420.510.560.360.56 J0.500.520.560.460.440.430.470.490.540.44 Se0.660.650.610.630.740.650.730.780.900.71 NR0.160.43 0.150.180.170.310.290.330.00 Probabilities to remain in the transient state of each college Data from Different Colleges

26. ArtsSocialLawBus’nsEdnShariaSciEngMedAllied F2.32.52.62.3 2.23.92.52.02.3 So2.42.32.72.1 1.82.22.41.62.3 J2.12.22.41.91.81.9 2.12.21.9 Se2.9 2.62.83.93.03.84.610.43.5 NR1.31.8 1.3 1.71.51.61.1 Average life times of the students in each transient state Data from Different Colleges

27. ArtsSocialLawBusEdnShariaSciEngMedAllied F0.600.910.980.800.910.770.370.770.930.69 So0.790.951.000.910.990.890.490.880.950.81 J0.850.981.000.951.000.960.780.941.000.99 Se0.901.00 0.981.000.960.940.991.00 NR0.720.981.000.810.970.850.450.620.940.95 The probabilities of reaching the graduate state G Data from Different Colleges

28. ArtsSocialLawBusEdnShariaSciEngMedAllied F0.190.050.020.070.010.080.260.200.070.11 So0.180.0500.0300.040.170.100.05 J0.150.0200.0300.040.090.0400 Se0.09000.0200.040.030.0100 NR0.260.0200.0400.120.290.370.060.01 The probabilities of reaching the drop out O state for the 10 colleges Data from Different Colleges

29. ArtsSocialLawBusEdnShariaSciEngMedAllied F2.282.472.592.24 2.143.522.4122.5 So2.282.222.731.932.051.732.042.251.62.3 J2.022.122.321.831.791.771.871.982.171.81 Se2.962.882.572.713.872.833.774.610.383.45 NR1.191.75 1.181.2 1.441.41.51 Average number of semesters the chain remains in transient states Data from Different Colleges

30. ScientificArt F3.202.31 So2.252.22 J1.992.09 Se4.22.98 NR1.531.36 Mean life time in each state for Scientific and Art colleges Comparison between Scientific and Art Colleges  Scientific colleges:- Science, Engineering and Allied Health  Art colleges:- Arts, Social sciences and Sharia (Islamic Studies)

31. U Sci = The probabilities of reaching the absorbing states G, O and T for Scientific colleges Probability matrix U

32. U ART = The probabilities of reaching the absorbing states G, O and T for Art colleges Probability matrix U

33. Discussion and Conclusions  A freshman student remains for an average of 2 to 3 semesters except in college of science where it is about 4 semesters.  At senior level where the course is comparatively tougher the life time varies in each college. For students in colleges of Medical sciences, Engineering, Education and Science, the life times are comparatively high (more than 4 semesters).

34. Discussion and Conclusions  The most common reasons for the lengthy life times are: i) Most of the students take preliminary non-credit courses in English, Mathematics and Chemistry ii) The regular credit hours suppose to be registered by a student should be between 15 and 19 credit hours but the average registered credit hours for a student in KU is calculated and is about 13 credit hours. iii) The minimum GPA for graduation is 2.0 and many students can not achieve this GPA to graduate so they repeat some courses with grade less than C to increase GPA. iv) Each college has its own rules and conditions for transferring, such as taking certain courses and requiring a certain GPA.

35. Discussion and Conclusions  Among the freshman students in the colleges of Arts, Sharia, Business Administration, Engineering, Allied Health and Science, the graduation percentages ranges between 60% and 80%, while that of Social sciences, Law, Education, and Medical Sciences it ranges between 90% and 98%.  It was found that a student in the scientific colleges stays on average 3 semesters in freshmen state while in arts colleges a student stays on average only 2 semesters.

36. Discussion and Conclusions  This lengthy life time in the scientific colleges was observed for each of the states which implies that the average time that a student spends in the system is more than that in the art colleges.  To avoid such situations, KU should take necessary actions for reducing the drop out from scientific colleges. They can either raise the minimum admission requirement of high school grade or give a course counseling for the students at the time of admission so that the students can reduce their over strain in the studies.

37. Recommendations  The lower rate of graduation of the senior students might require an investigative effort at the course levels so as to pinpoint the courses or group of courses which have high flunking rate.  A parallel investigation of the admission policies might be warranted  Encourage science high school graduates to enter scientific colleges  Allocate a special allowance to employees graduates from the scientific colleges college of scientific colleges  Orient 9th and 10th graders towards the science option

38. The 29th Conference of ARAB- ACRAOs March 2009 Comparison of Student Flow in Different Colleges of Kuwait University Using Absorbing Markov Analysis Dr. Shafiqah A. Al-Awadhi Deanship of Admission & Registration Kuwait University THANK YOU QUESTIONS???