1. T HE B OLIVARIAN R EVOLUTION : C REATING A H YBRID R EGIME ? (as of – 2009)

2. S IX D IMENSIONS Generational turnover Phenomena that sustain the new elite Bolivarian Vision and its use Constraints of the vision Elections and Referendums The Future

3. I. G ENERATIONAL T URNOVER

4. R EVOLUTIONARY L EADERSHIP : N EW & O LD

5. Q UEBEC S UMMIT (A PRIL 2001): D ECISIVE IN SHAPING P RESIDENT C HAVEZ ’ S CONFRONTATIONAL STYLE ?

6. A N EW G ENERATION OF I MPLEMENTERS

7. B OLI - BURGESIA  Vehicle of Choice Living as a socialist revolutionary

8. II. P HENOMENA THAT SUSTAIN THE NEW ELITE Class conflict Hostility to western modernization

9. C ARACAS : M ODERN & W ESTERN ?

10. C ARACAS : P OOR & P RIMITIVE

11. P HENOMENA THAT SUSTAIN THE NEW ELITE : C LASS C ONFLICT

12. O THER PHENOMENON THAT SUSTAIN THE B OLIVARIANS Memories (some implanted) of venality and incompetence of the defunct liberal democratic regime Revenge against those who benefited from Punto Fijo Anti-Americanism

13. III. T HE B OLIVARIAN V ISION AND ITS U SE

14. A BANDON FAILED ISI POLICIES Replace the (mistaken) vision of using Venezuelan wealth to emulate living style of the North Atlantic “Punto Fijo” democracy unraveled because it stimulated desire for western life style that is neither feasible or desirable ISI (between 1958 – 1990) sought to facilitate high levels of middle class consumption

15. O PPOSE S AVAGE N EO - LIBERALISM Mistaken reliance on free markets to “westernize” Not feasible in Latin America Not desirable

16. M ORE ON THE B OLIVARIAN V ISION Basic human needs must be made available to all Education health care Housing Culture Petroleum income can facilitate the vision (some things never change)

17. S TILL M ORE ON THE B OLIVARIAN V ISION Disdain for the traditional middle class Suspicion of meritocracy – a cover to exclude the disadvantaged Emphasis: equality of outcome Highest priority - making the urban slums livable

18. U SE OF THE B OLIVARIAN VISION : DOMESTIC AFFAIRS Discredit accomplishments of defunct liberal democracy Failure to reach stated goals Corruption Domestic entrepreneurial sector attacked for selfishness and corruption Urban space with middle class symbols allowed to deteriorate

19. U SE OF THE B OLIVARIAN V ISION : T AMING THE M ILITARY  Among 59 top positions in the Venezuelan armed forces - Chávez changed 45 (75%) in July 2005 and 2006  National Guard – most impacted (24 of the 29 top positions)  Ties with Cuba replace training by U.S. military  asymmetric warfare  to discourage opposition hope that the Marines will land  Alternative force to regular military

20. C HANGES M ILITARY D OCTRINE /T RAINING War College in Los Chorros closed for six months Manuals and text books being rewritten Emphasis on asymmetric warfare

21. U SE OF THE B OLIVARIAN VISION : I NTERNATIONAL A RENA Controlled elevation of tensions with the United States (symbol of Western consumerism) Search for allies that seek to diminish power/influence of the United States Policies that bolster high price for petroleum OPEC China

22. C HÁVEZ ’ S H EMISPHERIC V ISION : B RAZIL PLAYS A KEY ROLE IN REDUCING U.S. I NFLUENCE

23. IV. C ONSTRAINTS ON C HÁVEZ ’ S B OLIVARIAN “ VISION ” Class conflict emphasis complicates using expertise/talent developed between 1958- 98 Talent necessary to stem deterioration of infrastructure

24. O THER C ONSTRAINING C ONSEQUENCES Failure to define role for loyal opposition strengthens option of political change by force Discouragement of foreign investment from the North Atlantic – unintended consequence - increases dependence on petroleum income “Small vision” ISI strengthens dependence on revenue from petroleum

25. U NITED S TATES GOVERNMENT : A C ONSTRAINT ON THE C HÁVEZ V ISION ?

26. USA AS SEEN BY THE V ENEZUELAN PEOPLE Many supporters of Bolivarian revolution have brought into Chávez’s negative view of the Untied States Positive view of the U.S. at all time low (35% in poll of public opinion – Sept. 2005) Bolivarians see some groups in U.S. as allies in their struggle with U.S. ruling elite Poor Leftist academics