1. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 1 High Resolution Modeling: Searching for the intersection between WGNE and the WWRP Mesoscale Working Group Operational systems in the US NOAA/NCEP AFWA FNMOC Examples of real-time R&D systems Examples of R&D WGNE and WWRP MWG Jeanette & Martin

2. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 2 NAM NEMS based NMMNEMS based NMM Bgrid replaces Egrid Parent remains at 12 km Multiple Nests Run to ~48hr –~4 km CONUS nest –~6 km Alaska nest –~3 km HI & PR nests –~ –~1.5-2km DHS/FireWeather/IMET possible Rapid Refresh WRF-based ARW Use of GSI analysisUse of GSI analysis Expanded 13 km Domain to include Alaska Hourly Updates Experimental 3 km HRRR RUC-13 CONUS domain WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010 Original CONUS domain Experimental 3 km HRRR NCEP Mesoscale Modeling for CONUS: Planned Q3-Q4 FY11

3. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 3 Upgrade models: WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM Increase horizontal resolution: – ARW (45 km to 35 km) – NMM (40 km to 32 km) – RSM (40 km to 32 km) Total Membership = 21: –Adding 4 WRF –Eliminating 4 Eta For the 3 RSM members: replace Zhou cloud with Ferrier Use Global Ensemble Transform (ET) perturbations for the 10 WRF members Increase output frequency from every 3 hr to hourly for 1st 39hr (for SPC, AWC) Add/fix/unify variables in SREF output –radar (composite reflectivity + echo top) (for FAA) –unify PBL height diagnosis with critical Ri (aviation) –fix cloud base (aviation) –BUFR broken out into individual station time-series (SPC) Upgrades to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) System Implemented 27 October 2009 model (dash) output (black solid)

4. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 4 Planned Changes: –Eliminate 6 Eta and 5 RSM members (11 members) –Add 7 NEMS-NMMB, 2 WRF-ARW and 2 WRF-NMM members (11 members) –Update WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW model versions –Increase horizontal resolution from 32km to 22 km –Downscaled ET perturbations from global ensemble Expected Benefits: –Reduced maintenance costs without legacy models (Eta & RSM) –Inclusion of state-of-the-art model – improved forecasts –More detailed and accurate forecasts especially for precipitation –More consistent with global ensemble Upgrades to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) Scheduled Q4FY11

5. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 5

6. 6 Mesoscale Modeling at NRL COAMPS ® Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Includes fully embedded aerosol model Includes coupled ocean and wave models / assimilation systems COAMPS-OS ® COAMPS-On Demand System COAMPS-LES COAMPS-Large Eddy Simulation capability COAMPS-TC ® COAMPS-Tropical Cyclone Model New Dynamical Core Nonhydrostatic Unified Model Ensembles JEFS: COAMPS-WRF Joint Ensemble Forecast System EnKF, EnKF-DART, ET systems

7. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 7 Many Real-Time Modeling Efforts in the US

8. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 8 transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Mobile, AL Ida Simulation w/ MODIS SSTs (9 to 27 hour Forecast PMSL and 10-m Winds) SOO Comments (Medlin) –Forecast very close on track and intensity –Weakening intensity toward landfall –Horizontal scale very similar to observed –Precluded tornado threat due to very stable air on northern periphery (not shown)

9. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 9 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed: The benefits of close collaboration with forecasters… Tornadic Supercells Isolated cells ahead of the main line WRF-NMM Simulated 1 km Reflectivity Observed Base Reflectivity The WRF-NMM4 provided very useful input regarding the mesoscale organization and character of storms…I used it to help delineate where/when watches would be required. John Hart - SPC Day Shift Lead Forecaster 15 Nov 2005 tornado outbreak

10. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 10 Oklahoma University/ CAPS Forecast Configurations of Past Four Years Spring 2007: 10-member WRF-ARW, 4 km, 33 h, 21Z start time, NAM+SREF ICs. 5 members physics perturbations only, 5 with Phy+IC+LBC perturbations. Single 2 km grid. 2/3 CONUS (Xue et al.; Kong et al.; 2007 NWP conf.) Spring 2008: larger domain, 00Z start, Phy+IC+LBC pert for all. Radar Vr and Z data assimilation for 4 and 2 km grids! (Xue et al.; Kong et al. 2008 SLS Conf.) Spring 2009: 20 members, 4 km, 3 models (ARW, NMM, ARPS), mixed physics/IC/LBCs. Single 1 km grid. Radar DA on native grids. 30 h forecasts from 0Z (Xue et al.; Kong et al. 2009 NWP Conf.) Spring 2010: 26 4-km and one 1-km forecasts. Full CONUS domain. Some members with physics difference only, and 3 with storm-scale and mesoscale IC perturbations only for studying error growth and predictability. About 1.5 months each spring season from mid-April through early June http://forecast.caps.ou.edu.

11. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 11 SSEF mean SSEF Prob match QPE (obs) 4 km SREF mean SREF Prob match NAM 32 km 12 km 32 km 18–0Z accumulated precipitation: 24h (June 14, 2010 – OKC Flood Day) Operational R&D

12. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 12 Comparisons of reflectivity GSS (ETS) scores of SSEF, HRRR and NAM for Spring 2010 CAPS SSEF Ensemble PM Mean CAPS SSEF 1 km Model CAPS SSEF ARW-CN (control w/o radar assimilation) CAPS SSEF ARW-C0 (control w/o radar assimilation) HRRR NAM With radar DA Without radar DA

13. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 13 WRF ARW Based Study 0.5 km resolution

14. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 14 Young-Hee Ryu, Jong-Jin Baik, and Sang-Hyun Lee Seoul National University

15. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 15 Consideration of alternative spatial discretizations: Priority Requirements: Lat-LonIcosahedral-trianglesIcosahedral-hexagonsCubed SphereYin-Yang Efficient on existing and proposed supercomputer architectures Scales well on massively parallel computers Well suited for cloud (nonhydrostatic) to global scales Capability for local grid refinement and regional domains Conserves at least mass and scalar quantities Problems with lat-lon coordinate for global models Pole singularities require special filtering Polar filters do not scale well on massively parallel computers Highly anisotropic grid cells at high latitudes Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) Joe Klemp, Bill Skamarock (NCAR), Todd Ringler (Los Alamos National Laboratory) John Thuburn (University of Exeter, UK)

16. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 16 WGNE is concerned with all aspects of atmospheric modeling and analysis Working interface between operational forecasting and climate modeling communities WGNE theme: Atmospheric models, their evaluation and improvement WGNE fosters the open exchange of information in a competitive NWP environment Numerical Weather Prediction (CAS) and Climate (WCRP)

17. WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 17 Service Delivery Capacity Building Observations Scientific Assessments Systematic Prediction