1. Climatic Consequences of Gradual Conversion of Amazonian Tropical Forests Into Degraded Pasture or Soybean Cropland: a new Vegetation-Climate Equilibrium State in Amazonia Gilvan Sampaio (gilvan.sampaio@cptec.inpe.br) Carlos Nobre Prakki Satyamurty Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre - CCST Conferência Científica Internacional – LBA-GEOMA-PPBio Manaus-AM / Novembro de 2008

2. Oyama and Nobre, 2003 Two Biome-Climate Equilibrium States found for South America! b) ‘Savannization’ of Amazonia and ‘desertification’ in NE Brazil (b) Second State - Biome- climate equilibrium starting from desert land cover as Initial Condition for the Dynamic Vegetation Model (a) First State - Biome-climate equilibrium starting from forest land cover as initial condition for the Dynamic Vegetation Model. These results are similiar to current natural vegetation.

3. Question: What are the conditions for deforestation to induce an ‘abrupt’ transition to the second biome- climate stable equilibrium? ?

4. The study is divided in two parts: (I)the numerical simulations kept the biomes unchanged throughout the integration and did not interact with climate. We employed the CPTEC-INPE AGCM to assess the effects of Amazonian deforestation on the regional and global climate, using two ways to assign land cover: 1) land cover projections of deforestation and replacement by degraded pasture or soybean cropland from a business- as-usual scenario of future deforestation and 2) land cover projections from random scenarios of deforestation and replacement by degraded pasture. (II)the biomes were allowed to interact with climate freely, therefore they can change during the integration. To do this, the CPTEC-PVM was asynchronously coupled to the CPTEC AGCM.

5. PART I

6. PROJECTED DEFORESTATION SCENARIOS We used land cover change scenarios with deforested areas equal to 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% of the original extent of the Amazon forest. The land cover change scenarios with deforested areas smaller than 40% are from Soares-Filho et al. [2006]. The land cover change scenarios with deforested areas greater than 40% are obtained using the same methodology extending further into the future the simulation of deforestation under the business-as-usual scenario, which considers that recent deforestation trends will continue; highways currently scheduled for paving will be paved; compliance with legislation requiring forest reserves on private land will remain low; and protected areas will not be enforced Sampaio et al., 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett., 34

7. PROJECTED DEFORESTATION SCENARIOS Pasture or Soybean Evergreen Broadleaf Trees Sampaio et al., 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett., 34

8. Random Deforestation Scenarios (example of 50% deforestation) Sampaio 2008 PhD Thesis

9. Global Circulation Model – CPTEC/INPE 1.0 (Kinter et al. 1997, Bonatti, 1996, Cavalcanti et al., 2002) Model horizontal resolution: T062 (~200km x 200 km) Vertical levels: 42 Land surface scheme: Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB) – Xue et al., 1991 For each land grid point, a vegetation type (biome) is prescribed, and the vegetation classification follows Dorman and Sellers (1989). A set of physical, morphological, and physiological parameters is assigned to each biome. Boundary conditions: Monthly SST: climatological - NCEP-Reynolds e Smith, 1994 Initial climatological values: soil moisture, albedo and snow depth. Sea ice: considered at grid points for which SST is below -2ºC. Sampaio et al., 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett., 34

10. Part I - Experiments: The CPTEC model was integrated for each experiment and control for 87 months with five different initial conditions derived from five consecutive days of NCEP analyses. The results are the mean of the last 60 months (experiment – control). 1) Control case: Today land cover scenario. 2) PASTURE: Land cover change scenarios with deforested areas equal to 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% of the original extent of the Amazon forest. 3) SOYBEAN: Land cover change scenarios with deforested areas of 20%, 50%, 80% and 100%. For each scenario a pseudo-equilibrium between the climate and vegetation was obtained. Sampaio et al., 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett., 34

11. SeasonAll PastureAll Soybean JJA-27.5%-39.8% SON-28.1%-39.9% Precipitation PASTURE SOYBEAN Relative Precipitation The reduction in precipitation occurs mainly during the dry season, and is more evident when the deforested area is larger than 40% ! Sampaio et al., 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett., 34 SeasonAll PastureAll Soybean JJA-15.7%-24.0% all Amazonia

12. ALEAT PeriodAll PastureAll Soybean Annual-18,2%-25,8% ASO-42,0%-47,4% Precipitation (100% de desf.) decrease in precipitation associated with pasture or soybean expansion PASTURE SOYBEAN Sampaio 2008 PhD Thesis

13. Searching for Multiple Biome-Climate Equilibria

14. Climate from Degraded Pasture “Realistic” Deforestation Scenarios Sampaio 2008 PhD Thesis Post-Deforestation Equilibrium Potential Biomes

15. Climate from Degraded Pasture Random Deforestation Scenarios Sampaio 2008 PhD Thesis Post-Deforestation Equilibrium Potential Biomes

16. Climate from Soybean Crop “Realistic” Land Use Scenarios Sampaio 2008 PhD Thesis Post-Deforestation Equilibrium Potential Biomes

17. Climate from Degraded Pasture “Realistic” Deforestation Scenarios Climate from Degraded Pasture Random Deforestation Scenarios Climate from Soybean Crop “Realistic” Land Use Scenarios Sampaio 2008 PhD Thesis Area of Forest Area of Savanna Post-Deforestation Equilibrium Potential Biomes

18. PART II

19. Vegetation = f 1 (climate variables) = f 1 (g 0, g 5, Tc, h, s) g 0 = degree-days above 0 C g 5 = degree-days above 5 C Tc = mean temperature of the coldest month h = aridity index s = sesonality index f 1 is a highly nonlinear function Climate = f 2 (vegetation) = f 2 (AGCM coupled to vegetated land surface scheme) f 2 is also a nonlinear function CPTEC-PVM was coupled to the CPTEC AGCM Vegetation Model CPTEC PVM Atmospheric Model CPTEC AGCM COUPLING

20. CPTEC-PVM was coupled to the CPTEC AGCM -Control run: the present-day potential biomes (output of the PVM forced by the present-day climate) are kept unchanged during 20-year: five integrations with different initial conditions derived from five consecutive days of NCEP analyses. -Fourteen 24-year integrations using dynamic vegetation; in these integrations, the biome distribution is updated every 6 years. Four iterations are found to be enough to reach a biosphere-atmosphere equilibrium state. The biome distribution and the climate of the last iteration are analyzed.

21. Perturbation Experiments: Coupled PVM-AGCM Simulations Initial ConditionsEqulibrium State Potential Biomes Sampaio 2008 PhD Thesis

22. 100% amzdes 80% amzdes60% amzdes 50% amzdes40% amzdes20% amzdes 0% amzdes Perturbation Experiments: Coupled PVM-AGCM Simulations Sampaio 2008 PhD Thesis

23. 100% amzflo 80% amzflo60% amzflo 50% amzflo40% amzflo20% amzflo 0% amzflo Perturbation Experiments: Coupled PVM-AGCM Simulations Sampaio 2008 PhD Thesis

24. Sampaio 2008 PhD Thesis

25. These results suggest that the total deforested area of 50% is a sensitive point where there could be a change of states. 50% Tropical Forest Area Remaining Tropical Forest Area (10 6 km 2 ) % of Altered Area in the Initial Condition Sampaio 2008 PhD Thesis

26. CONCLUSIONS The main impacts on Amazonia climate, because of deforestation, occur over eastern and central Amazonia, and are more evident when total deforested area is larger than 40%. The results for eastern Amazonia, where changes in land cover are expected to be larger during this century, show increase in near-surface air temperature, and decrease in evapotranspiration and precipitation, which occurs mainly during the dry season for both classes of land use conversions. We found two biosphere-atmosphere equilibrium states for South America as in Oyama and Nobre (2003): 1) present-day potential biomes 2) a new vegetation- climate equilibrium where the eastern part of the Amazonia tropical forest are replaced by tropical savannas, and semi-desert and desert areas appear in Northeast of Brazil. In this study, the results suggest that 50% of total deforested area in Amazonia is the threshold for transition from present day potential biomes to a new vegetation- climate equilibrium state in Amazonia.