1. 1 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES 5. CONSERVATION – BARRIERS 6. Conservation Possibilities 7. UK Energy Consumption N.K. Tovey ( ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRed Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation NBSLM01E Climate Change and Energy: Past, Present and Future 2010

2. 2 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES 4.1. CURRENT AND PROJECTED USAGE Projected Saturation Population in 2050 -- 10000 M consumption averages current UK value Requirement in 2050 = 50 TW i.e. 5 x 10 13 W. consumption reaches current USA value Requirement in 2050 = 100 TW i.e. 10 times current demand Range of forecasts 20 - 100 TW with a likely value in range 30 - 50 TW (say 40 TW). CountryEnergy Requirement PopulationPer Capita World12.0 TW6000 M2.0 kW USA 3.0 TW 300 M10.0 kW Europe 2.0 TW 350 M5.7 kW UK 0.3 TW 60 M5.0 kW

3. 3 4.2 PROJECTED LIFESPAN OF RESOURCES decades:- centuries: millennia: projected average consumption of 40 TW annual consumption will be:- 1.25 x 10 21 J Compare this to the Current World Proven Reserves:- Oil Reserves:- 5 x 10 21 J Gas Reserves:- 4 x 10 21 J Uranium:- 1 x 10 21 J Coal Reserves:- 2.6 x 10 22 J Uranium (Fast Breeder):- 1 x 10 23 J Fusion (Deuterium):- 1 x 10 30 J D – D fusion Coal, Geothermal, D – T fusion, 232 Th 235 U, Tar sands, 238 U, Oil Shales Oil, Gas,

4. 4 4.3 "RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES" Orders of magnitude only Practically Achievable:- 10 10 - Tidal (i.e. 1 x 10 10 to 1 x 10 11 ) 10 11 - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes 10 12 - Hydro; Wind; Waves 10 13 – Solar Projected demand is 40 TW – 4 x 10 13 W

5. 5 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES TheoreticalPracticalRealised to date TWGW NON- SOLAR Tidal3501France, Russia, China

6. 6 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES GW TW Realised to date PracticalTheoretical France, Russia, China 1503Tidal NON- SOLAR Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand 1060+30Geothermal

7. 7 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES GW TW Realised to date PracticalTheoretical France, Russia, China 0.25503Tidal NON- SOLAR Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand 10.5 (Electrical) 0.5 Heat 60+30Geothermal USA, Israel, Spain, Germany: third world 3.6 electrical 0.2 Active Solar 30000 (on land) SOLAR Direct

8. 8 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES Normal hot water circuit Solar Circuit Solar Pump

9. 9 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

10. 10 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES - Solar House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

11. 11 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES TheoreticalPracticalRealised to date TWGW SOLAR Indirect Wind30100080 and rising rapidly USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 4100 MW in UK

12. 12 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

13. 13 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES GW TW Realised to date PracticalTheoretical USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 4100MW in UK 80 and rising rapidly 100030Wind SOLAR Indirect

14. 14 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES GW TW Realised to date PracticalTheoretical USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 3000 MW in UK 63 and rising rapidly 100030Wind SOLAR Indirect UK, Norway, Japan 0.01303Waves USA0.00130030OTEC

15. 15 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES TheoreticalPracticalRealised to date TWGW Hydro30+2000800USA, Brazil, Canada, Scandinavia, Switzerland, Malaysia etc. Biomass/ Wastes 300100043Electrical 28 Heat Various Brazil - Bioethanol SOLAR Indirect Hydrogen????

16. 16 5. CONSERVATION - BARRIERS N.K. Tovey ( ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRed Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation NBSLM01E Climate Change and Energy: Past, Present and Future 2010

17. 17 5. CONSERVATION - BARRIERS 5.1 GOVERNMENTAL preference to support supply rather than conservation; long term historic memories, consequential political overtones if they under estimate future supply requirements. where grants have been made available, they have often been too late, and too restrictive - and deterred those who have made an investment in the past from doing so in the future. situation now changing - although somewhat restrictive Is the method adopted in US during the Carter Administration a preferential one?

18. 18 5.1 GOVERNMENTAL BARRIERS lack of / or inadequate legislation to promote conservation (2006 Building Regulations do address some issues, but they are too late and there are still loop holes - so encourages minimum compliance rather than promoting conservation.) delays in decision making favour supply rather than conservation reluctance in past at Local Government Level to implement tougher measures - e.g. Building Industry who argue against such measures - Exceptions:- Southampton City Council; Milton Keynes. The Merton Rule is a step in the right direction reluctance to promote strategies which could cost Government votes at next election (e.g. higher taxation on petrol etc.) - many measures take a period longer than lifetime of Government to become effective. enactment of legislation which is has loose or incorrect wording:- 1947 Electricity Act in UK. Conservation Bill in US in 1979.

19. 19 5.2 VESTED INTERESTS manufacturing industries continuing to promote out of date products and/or energy wasteful products - or to give Pseudo- Conservation Information. retailers promoting products on the capital outlay, or other attributes, and not energy consumption. scheduling of TV programs cowboy firms making unsubstantiated claims. preference to view Energy Conservation in terms of MONETARY saving rather than Resource saving.

20. 20 5.3 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Incorporation of retrospective pollution controls usually INCREASES energy consumption. e.g. Removal of SO 2 leads to:- a) reduced efficiency at power stations, hence increased CO 2 b) as SO 2 is converted even more CO 2 is produced c) Limestone required from Peak District etc. d) Disposal of waste Gypsum e)Additional Transport needed to power stations FGD plant are large - comparable to size of power station (excluding cooling towers).

21. 21 5. CONSERVATION - DIFFICULTIES 5.4 PHYSICAL LIMITATIONS laws of thermodynamics limit efficiency of energy conversion. climate affects energy consumption geological resources in a country will affect utilisation of energy. e.g. it makes sense to use electricity for heating in Norway which has abundant hydro-electricity, but not in UK. 5.5 TECHNICAL PROBLEMS old buildings/appliances which have a long life so improvements in energy efficiency will take time to become effective. difficulty in making perfect machine difficulty in achieving high insulation standards in brick built buildings

22. 22 5.6 SOCIAL ATTITUDES desire for greater thermal comfort. Comfort temperatures have risen over last 30 years. desire for greater mobility. desire for smaller households in larger and individual buildings (unlike many other European Countries). come to depend on reliability of energy supply (contrast situation in late 50's). While Energy labelling on appliances is helpful it can give misleading information – e.g. A rated American style freezers often consume more than C rated European models. Energy rating of frost free appliances conveys wrong message. disregarding notices/adverts designed to promote energy conservation. short memories - previous high costs of energy are forgotten when energy becomes cheap. sliding back into old habits. energy conservation not often seen as important as direct investment even when the returns are much greater. decisions made on impulse with little regard to energy used.

23. 23 5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS We expect a pay back for any investment in a short period Assessment of an Energy project depends not only on the rate of return we expect (allowing for inflation etc.) which is related to the Discount Rate, but on how fuel prices are seen to change in the future. In the mid 1970's, it was predicted by many that the REAL price of energy would at least double by the end of the century. In practice energy is now cheaper in real terms than in 1970's Widely fluctuating fuel prices, and expectations on return can create a STOP GO attitude towards rational spending on Energy saving projects. In Industry, Energy Saving has to compete with increased productivity. A new process which takes half the space of an old equivalent one, produces the same number of items in half the time would be favoured EVEN if it consumed 50-100% more in Energy (as labour costs would be reduced and profits increased because the price of Energy is TOO LOW).

24. 24 Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times. When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times The Behavioural Dimension

25. 25 5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS The choice of a particular Discount Rate will load the dice in favour of a particular option if only Economics is used in decision making EVEN IF EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS ARE INCLUDED. Fig. 5.1 Effect of Discount Rate on Economic Viability of Energy Projects High Discount Rates favour Coal Medium Discount Rates favour Nuclear Low/zero/negative Discount Rates favour Conservation and Renewables Discount Rate Present Value +ve -ve Capital Costs coal nuclear Renewables/conservation

26. 26 5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS Time Energy Demand Projection 1973 2004 Low growth Technical fix Business as Usual

27. 051015202530 kW per Head 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 GDP per head (US$ (95) USA Russia CanadaChina India UK Japan Germany Poland France Qatar Other EU Countries Nordic EU New EU Mediterranean EU The wealth of a country and energy requirements are related Energy – GDP Relationships

28. Energy – GDP relationships As an exercise in unit conversion download the energy- GDP relationships file from the Web Page. Convert the units of thousand tonnes of oil equivalent into PetaJoules. Work out the energy requirement associated with £1 of GDP. Plot the relationship with time - How has this changed over the last 60 years? Noting the energy requirement for £1 wealth, estimate what the price of petrol and diesel should be if society valued energy at the same level as wealth generally if the energy content of a litre of petrol is 32.9 MJ/litre and that of diesel is 35.7 MJ/litre As an exercise in your own time – repeat the analysis for each of the fuels Coal, Gas, Oil, Electricity separately.

29. 29 6. Conservation Possibilities N.K. Tovey ( ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRed Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation NBSLM01E Climate Change and Energy: Past, Present and Future 2010

30. 30 7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES. Technical Education Energy Management Technical Measures will have limited impact on energy consumption if people are not educated to use energy wisely. Energy Management is a key aspect in energy conservation A good Energy Manager will:- Assess Energy Demand - record keeping Analyse Energy Demand - examine trends relating to physical factors Advise on technical and other methods to promote energy conservation Advertise and publicise ways to save energy Account for energy consumed

31. 31 Significant saving are possible by reducing waste in conversion of energy to secondary fuels. Significant savings are possible in some area in end use appliance efficiency - e.g. low energy light bulbs. [but do not get confused between low voltage and low energy!] Effective Energy Conservation and Environmental Legislation may well see a rise in electricity consumption in the short term. promotion of heat pumps - require electricity industry switching to more efficient electrically driven processes. e.g. Case Hardening move towards electric cars.????? Hydrogen??????? 7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES.

32. 32 Energy Conservation requires innovative joined-up thinking. Some of the best ideas come from individuals. What do you see as possibilities? Would a move to Hydrogen powered vehicles be viable in foreseeable future? What are the problems? Work in pairs and answer the questions at the end of the handout 7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES.

33. 33 7. UK Energy Consumption Maxine Narburgh CSERGE N.K. Tovey ( ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRed Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation NBSLM01E Climate Change and Energy: Past, Present and Future 2010

34. 34 Per Capita Consumption in Watts ~ 5 kW 7. UK Energy Consumption The recent reductions are not as dramatic as appear above as total population has increased by 2.1 million since 2000 197019801990200020022004200620072008 Domestic816882902105610601078998958987 Transport6237861076125012071282131013021272 Industry13791069855797769735713690662 Other411414425486442450436421390 Conversion171215651745168018441635162915491503 Total494247165004527053215180508649214814 Non-Energy240165249277241270261212220

35. 35 8. UK Energy Consumption (Watts/capita) Consumption is roughly 5 kW per capita Industrial Consumption has declined Transport Consumption has increased Despite much improved insulation standards domestic energy use has remained almost static

36. 36 UKRussiaIndiaColombiaLibyaUSAChina Production49651074856622201937773441564 Imports187-4796129-1414-15248306574 Total Supply515259526958064129104091638 Conversion/Distribution losses1544200720613619333245581 Total Consumption36083945489669219671641057 Industry72111791161883301344436 Transport1209881442179062861106 Domestic98912502791224031188328 Commercial416296942n/a96254 Agriculture2090951277641 Non-Energy254248325052973392 Imports/Exports3.6%-80.6% 18.5%-175.4%-369.3%29.4%4.5% % Conversion/Transmission Losses30.0%33.7% 29.6%16.9%46.8%31.2%35.5% 7. Comparative Energy Consumption (Watts/Capita)

37. Energy Security

38. 38 Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security Import Gap

39. There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security

40. 40 24/04/2014 The Gas Scenario Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas. Replacements for ageing plant Additions to deal with demand changes Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010 25% renewables by 2025 Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 400 TWh by 2010 But 68% growth in gas demand (compared to 2002) Business as Usual 257% increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002) Electricity Options for the Future

41. 41 24/04/2014 Energy Efficiency Scenario Other Options Some New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO 2 levels are to fall significantly and excessive gas demand is to be avoided Business as Usual Scenario New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels 25% Renewables by 2025 20000 MW Wind 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc. Alternative Electricity Options for the Future

42. 42 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

43. 43 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

44. 44 1.33 billion people 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.03 billion people Products : 478 Mtonnes CO 2 increase (2002-05) Aid & Education The Unbalanced Triangular Trade Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO 2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years (2002 – 2005)

45. 45 And Finally Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher 604-531BC If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading. N.K. Tovey ( ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

47. 47 Per capita Carbon Emissions UK How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? China

48. 48

49. r Electricity Generation i n selected Countries