1. CRed carbon reduction 1 Norfolk Federation of Womens Institutes Carbon Challenge Day February 23 rd 2008 Transport Issues N.K. Tovey ( ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRed Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5 th October 2007 1

2. 2 Historic Trends Technical Issues Fuel Efficiency New Fuels The Social Dimension How important is it? New Ideas Carbon Footprint Issues Conclusions Transport Issues

3. 3 Historic Trends: Personal Mobility Increase in personal mobility by ~400% in 50 years Mostly by car journeys Decline in bus travel (but trend now reversed ) Nearly 50% increase in rail travel since privatisation –represents a saving of 1.5 - 2 millions tonnes of CO2 per annum compared to road. If this travel is replacing road travel!! Will investment in public transport necessarily reduce car journeys? Privatisation

4. 4 Private Motoring Components of Energy Demand in personal transport. Desire for mobility exceeded fuel efficiency improvements until 1990. Since 2000 energy consumption approximately in balance. Need to reduce further increases in mobility if CO 2 is to be reduced significantly.

5. 5 Historic Trends: Freight Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by: –223% since 1960 –20% since 1990 Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction?

6. 6 Band G covers a broad range Base taxation directly on carbon emission? Data from Vehicle Emissions Database Energy Labelling: Is it helpful?

7. Carbon and Energy Efficiency Trends in Cars voluntary emission targets will not be reduced to 140 g/km by 2008/09

8. New Vehicles: A Hybrid Vehicle

9. 9 Technical Issues: New Fuels Biofuels: one part of the solution in near term with Fuel Cells in longer Term?? Overall CO 2 emissions for different fuels/production methods/power trains. Based on CONCAWE/JRC/EUCAR results as adapted by Andy Taylor

10. Depending on the pathway, biofuels can have a major impact in reducing CO2 from transport. However, other studies give differing results and clarity and robustness of methodolgy is needed – including Real Road Tests Biofuel Options Biogas Bioethanol (5% or 85%) Biodiesel (5% to 100%) Vegetable oil Benefit > Reduced CO2 and other emissions? Technical Issues: New Fuels

11. 11 Launch of BioEthanol in UK: Norwich 15 th March 2006 Planning is needed both for vehicles and infrastructure

12. 12 Historic Trends Technical Issues Fuel Efficiency New Fuels The Social Dimension How important is it? New Ideas Carbon Footprint Issues Conclusions Transport Issues

13. 13 Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry 2004 Despite reduced calorific value of biodiesel, fuel consumption remained the same First trials ever of fuel economy on the road using biodiesel 8 Volvo FH12 Trucks: 5%, 20%, 35%, 50% biodiesel blends

14. 14 Driver behaviour can affect performance Driver 2 uses 13.8% more fuel than driver 1 Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry Driver behaviour

15. 15 Trials demonstrated other benefits compounding to 60% saving –Using 50% uvo biodiesel (~40% saving) –Advanced driver training (~15% saving): cumulative ~49% –Better route/load planning (~10% saving): cumulative ~54% –More fuel-efficient trucks (~10% saving): cumulative ~59% Total CO2 saving ~59% However –Widespread availability of biodiesel at this concentration and new trucks will take time Other actions could be taken in shorter time scale –Advanced driver training (~15% saving): –Better route/load planning (~10% saving): Total CO2 saving ~24% Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry

16. 16 In UK it is 5% substitution of biofuels by volume. Should it be 5% by energy? Will the buy out money necessarily end up promoting UK projects as with Renewable Obligation? Significant quantities of wheat are exported which could be used for bioethanol. Land Area required for 5% by volume –~10000 – 12000 sq km (similar to NFU figure of 1.2 Mha) – or 4-5% of total land area of UK. area of Norfolk, Suffolk, and part of Cambridgeshire combined Opportunities for use of co-products- animal feed/power generation What happens if RTFO is increased further? Is land area requirement sustainable? Implications of Road Transport Fuel Obligation for 2010

17. 17 Data from Transport Statistics 2005. Table 2005. Trends in Car Engine Size Car engine sizes are getting larger. This increase has caused the emission of an extra 2.9 Mtonnes extra of CO2. per annum.

18. 18 Percentage of models available compared to social desire. -ve means less models on market than people intending to buy. Size of Car Engines in Market 2006 Size of Choice according to survey of prospective buyers Data: Vehicle Emission Database Department of Transport Report: Assessing the Impact of Graduated Vehicle Excise Duty <1000 1000 - 1300 1003 - 1600 1600 - 2000 2000 - 2500 2500 - 3000 >3000

19. 19 Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph. Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can affect consumption by up to 10% A small car emits: equivalent of 1 party balloon every 60m. Driving just 1.6 miles emits as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour. Raising Awareness

20. 20 Personal Mobility: Does Public Transport reduce car travel? UK D More use of car > more total distance travelled. Greater distance by train > greater use of car. Compare UK with Germany switch UK car journeys to public transport at German levels. saving by train 1.01 M tonnes saving by bus 0.74 M tonnes Reducing mobility desire 9.22 M tonnes Suggests overriding issue is increased desire for mobility rather than significant switching of mode of transport. D UK D

21. Investment in Public Transport Smart Dynamic Bus Routing? Bus Service A > B People at C not served Divert route via C –increased journey times less popular with A > B, particularly if people only occasionally get on at C. Dynamic Routing on demand Extension of Trinidad Route Bus System A B C Mobile phone SMS Intelligent bus stops 21

22. 22 Social Issues: Lift Sharing Our congested roads are full of empty seats The UK leader in lift sharing, Liftshare.com is based in Norfolk; Aim: CO2, Car Occupancy 2 52 million km shared each year. Car travel (2006 statistics): 679 billion passenger kilometres 398 billion vehicle kilometres Average occupancy 1.71. Raising this to an average of 2 would save 9.9 Mtonnes CO 2. Lift sharing/car pooling is very cost effective, can help combat social exclusion, and enhance the effectiveness of public transport. Increasing average car occupancy is a very cheap way of saving CO2 and reducing car use.

23. Social Issues: First car share club in East Anglia EDP, June 2, 2006 However, some research of Cambridge scheme by Prof. Crawford Brown suggests that much of use is additional use not replacement use. 23

24. 24 Providing Public with more information Impact of carbon emissions Petrol receipt from Denmark Individuals often go for budget airlines for the cheap weekend break in Europe. Is this rational? e.g. Paris for weekend break 29th Sept - 2nd Oct27th Oct - 30th Oct BMIBabyEasyJetEurostarBMIBabyEasyJetEurostar Return Tickets £95.00£86.18£124.00£9.00£56.58£79.00 Airport Taxes £55.20£14.50 £55.20£14.50 London>Airport £8.00£22.40 £8.00£22.40 CDG > Gare du Nord £13.00 Total £171.20£136.08£124.00£85.20£106.48£79.00 Total Time 04:0504:1503:0004:0504:1503:00 Prices as per respective WEB Sites on 19 th Sept. 2006

25. 25 Historic Trends Technical Issues Fuel Efficiency New Fuels The Social Dimension How important is it? New Ideas Carbon Footprint Issues Conclusions Transport Issues

26. Time cumulative distance Passengersgrams per km Pass-km Norwich05:530.0 0 Wymondham06:0417.35037.3 Attleborough06:1125.75434.5 Thetford06:2548.75633.3 Ely06:5185.36230.1 March(GB)07:08109.85533.9 average Peterborough07:25132.36727.8 31.9 Carbon Emissions from Train Travel Norwich – Peterborough Saturday 24 th March 2007 Data Collected by Energy Field Course Students en route for Orkney.

27. Cumulative distance Passengersgms per km Pass-km Peterborough07:460.0 Grantham08:0546.721336.3 Newark North Gate08:1770.421735.6 Doncaster08:42128.324132.2 York09:06180.224032.3 Darlington09:36251.424232.1 Newcastle10:07309.326429.5 Berwick-upon-Tweed10:50417.139120.3average Edinburgh11:37509.738520.626.3 Carbon Emissions from Train Travel Peterborough - Aberdeen

28. Time cumulative distance Passengersgrams per km Pass-km Edinburgh12:060.0 Haymarket(Edinburgh)12:102.013427.1 Kirkcaldy12:3821.315922.8 Markinch for.Glenrothes.12:4741.815523.4 Ladybank12:5553.516821.6 Cupar13:0063.216821.6 Leuchars (St.Andrews)13:0771.617321.0 Dundee13:2582.113926.1 Arbroath13:3995.39339.0 Stonehaven14:15122.76456.7average Aberdeen14:35183.88841.331.2 Carbon Emissions from Train Travel Edinburgh - Aberdeen

29. Carbon Emissions from Train Travel A Problem Driving to London ~ 32 kg of CO 2 Travelling by Train ~ 4.5 kg – a saving of 27.5 kg based on data from our research BUT If travelling by car the train would still run. What would be the reduction in CO 2 because a person did not travel [ 85 – 90% of energy consumption arises from dead weight of train] Reduction is only around 0.4 kg [ weight of person plus luggage] So true saving by public transport is about 31.6kg How do you then account for emissions by the train???????

30. 30 Conclusions Are Biofuels an answer? Government needs clearer statements on its commitments: e.g.RTFO. Why not a requirement of 5% by energy content? Where will buy out money go? Will it promote industry in UK? Land requirements in post 2010 ideas from increased RTFO? Issues of fuel efficiency need addressing more effectively Reverse trend towards large engine cars Revisit the banding system and related taxation Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." Social Dimension must not be overlooked. –Better education/awareness - driver behaviour. – Address issue of continual increases in desire for mobility. Could provide more rapid and cheaper method to reduce CO 2 ?