1. The 2008 Election in Retrospect as a Guide to the Latino Political Future Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 14 November 18, 2008

2. Exam – November 20 Essay (60 percent) IDs – You answer four from six that I select from the list I distributed The essay and the list of possible IDs posted to the class web site Tips Essay – use all sources – class, readings, readings posted to the web site; reference the author if you can IDs – both define and state a significance to the study of Latinos and the 2008 elections

3. The Question on Every Pundit’s Tongue “Is 2008 a Realigning Election? Numbers Offer Some Clues” - RealClearPolitics.com, November 11, 2008 [In the more extreme form] “A Permanent Democratic Majority?” -Salon.com November 13, 2008

4. Review – Realigning Election Election or series of elections where one routinely dominant coalition is replaced with another Current era 1968 – present – routinely divided government 1980 – present – Republican dominance of the executive branch and dominant ideology of shrinking the size and scope of government

5. Does 2008 Presage Change? Yes, but realignments rely not just on a critical election, but the ability to provide the change that voters seek So, what’s interesting in the short term about 2008 is set of governing resources that President-elect Obama can tap Most noted among these by pundits is combination of strong Latino support and growth in the Latino electorate

6. Change in the Democratic Governing Coalition 2006 and 2008, Democrats gain 12+ U.S. Senate seats 50 U.S. House seats 300 state legislative seats House and state legislative gains concentrated in the Southwest and the border South … and among 18 to 30 year old voters Kerry -- +9 points Obama -- +34 points

7. Change in National Ideology, 1995-2008

8. In This (Support for a Greater Government Role in People’s Lives), the Nation in Coming Around to the Latino Position Is this a short-term reaction to the world economic collapse?

9. Change in the Electorate, By County 2004-08 # counties Pop. Growth 2000-07 % Latino Dem. +10 or more %1,1738%18% Dem. +5-10%7146%9% Dem. +0-5%5505%8% Rep. +0-5%2804%5% Rep. +5-10%1735%3% Rep. +10 or more %2251%2%

10. 2008 as a Realigning Election? Something that we can know only after we see the relative success of Obama administration efforts to enact policy Popular reactions to those policies An important test will be Degree to which issues of importance to Latinos shape the Obama policy agenda Seriousness with which Obama continues to court Latino support

11. Regardless of the Long- Term Significance of the 2008 Elections How will the Latino Voice be felt?

12. What We Know About the Future 1. Latino populations will grow 2. Intra-Latino diversity will increase 3. The Latino presence will expand in new parts of the United States 4. The first (immigrant) generation will make up a declining share of the Latino population 5. In the short term (and probably the long term), Latinos will need to rely on coalitional politics to achieve their political and policy goals

13. Population Composition, 2000- 2100 ( current immigration levels )

14. State Minority Populations, 2000-2025 5725 42

15. Immigrant/Native Shares – Latino Population

16. Latino Age Composition, 2000 Immigrants / U.S. Born

17. Generational Composition of Hispanic Population: 1960-2030

18. Be Care in Reading Too Much Into These Changes, Latino Identity in Flux Even if current trends continue Race/ethnic identities change Latino identity faces four challenges 1. Rise of second and third+ generations 2. Pan-ethnicity 3. Decline in the salience of ethnic identity 4. Emergence of institutionally sanctioned and recognized multi-racial/multi-ethnic identities

19. Population Growth Ensures that Latino Influence Will Increase But, It will not grow as quickly as population – resources for mobilization low Competition for Latino political support often weakened by structural factors outside community’s control Community leadership is weak and not growing Consequence Risk of alienation Confusing distance with exclusion

20. So The future is bright But, the future may be further away than many believe If that future is too far off, many will move away from a Latino identity Immigration continually reinforces identity Immigration “reforms,” if implemented, will likely reduce immigration, particularly Mexican immigration 2 nd and beyond generations will make up increasing share of the Latino population Will Latin America / Latino identity be of importance, particularly if immigration declines?