1. RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: THE CASE OF MOROCCO (Simulation 2010-2040) PROJECT: FEM34-02 Co-directors: Prof. A. Lorca & Prof. de Arce

2. RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN RESEARCH TEAM: Prof. Idriss El Abbassi (Université Mohamed V) Prof. Abdelhamid El Bouhadi (Université Mohamed V) Prof. Rafael de Arce (UAM – AGREEM) Prof. Gonzalo Escribano (UNED) Mr. AyacheKhellaf(Université Mohamed V) Prof. Alejandro Lorca (UAM – AGREEM) Prof. Ramón Mahia (UAM – AGREEM) Prof. Jose María Marín (UNED) Prof. Eva Medina (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) Prof. Lahcen Oulhaj (Université Mohamed V) Prof. Said Tounsi (Université Mohamed V)

3. RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN Project Narrative  Renewable Energies (RES) have become an identity sign of EU’s Energy Policy.  The Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) has launched the Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) to support RES deployment in the region.  Morocco is probably on of the best positioned country to implement the Mediterranean Solar Plan.  The MSP would help Morocco to supply its domestic electricity markets with RES, and may be to export a surplus benefiting from the new green energy trade.

4. RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN Within this regional and national context, the main objective of this project is to analyze the economic effects of building Concentrated Solar Plants (CSP), Photovoltaic (PV) and Wind farms (WP) installation in Morocco during the next 30 years.

5. Concerned Technologies in the MSP

6. SIMULATIONSCHEMASIMULATIONSCHEMA

7. RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN RES ElectricityMix in Morocco (Baseline,MW) CSP (PARAB. THROUGH)WIND POWERPHOTOVOLTAICTOTAL 20102028413317 2012201,192201,232 20152251,595501,870 20204162,000802,496 20301,2993,3901284,816 20402,8935,7772058,875

8. Evolution of CostsbyTechnology

9. Methodology I: Production Effect “SECTORIZED” INVESTMENT / BUSINESS PLAN DIRECT EF. INDUCED DEMAND TOTAL EFFECT INDUCED DEMAND (DIRECT + INDIRECT) DISAGGREGATION BY SECTOR P' = (I-A) -1 D Δ VALUE ADDED DOMESTIC / INTERNATIONAL COEFFICIENTS I-O FINAL DEMAND INCREASE = = Δ EMPLOYMENT Value added Coefficient Employment Coefficient TIME DECOMPOSITION LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY TIME SERIES MODELS

10. Methodology II: Induced Demand Effect PRODUCTION EFFECT EMPLOYMENT INCREASE DIRECT EF. INDUCED DEMAND TOTAL EF. INDUCED DEMAND (DIRECT + INDIRECT) DETAIL BY CONSUMPTION STANDARD BASKET P' = (I-A) -1 D Δ VALUE ADDED SALARIES (+) NEW YIELD(-) TAXES(-) SAVES Δ CONSUMPTION YIELD = = Δ EMPLOYMENT Value added Coefficient Employment Coefficient

11. RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN Scenarios of Simulation and Main Results PROGRESSIVE REDUCTION OF IMPORTED COMPONENTS NOYES EXPORTING NO BASELINE“SMART” 20% OF RENEWABLE ENERGY “EXPORTS” “SMART EXPORTS” INCREASING THE INSTALLED CAPACITY IN RENEWABLES TO EXPORT WITH......CSP PLANTSCSP EXPORTS-...PV PLANTSPV EXPORTS-...WIND FARMS WF EXPORTS-

12. RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN Scenarios of Simulation and Main Results PROGRESSIVE REDUCTION OF IMPORTED COMPONENTS NOYES EXPORTING NO BASELINE +1.17% GDP +265,730 Empl “SMART” +1.59% GDP +401,671 Empl. 20% OF RENEWABLE ENERGY “EXPORTS” +1.41% GDP +318,876 Empl. “SMART EXPORTS” +1.91% GDP +482,005 Empl. INCREASING THE INSTALLED CAPACITY IN RENEWABLES TO EXPORT WITH......CSP PLANTS +1.27% GDP +289,369 Mill. -...PV PLANTS +1.24% GDP +282,631 Empl. -...WIND FARMS +1.6% GDP +415,032 Empl. -

13. RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN TOTAL INVESTMENT BY SCENARIO (,000 EUROS) 2010202020302040 BASELINE SCENARIO407,9701,043,0783,573,7955,950,772 EXPORTS OF 20% SURPLUS407,9701,251,6934,288,5547,140,926 CSP407,9701,416,2304,834,6308,041,514 PV407,9701,826,9163,876,4717,678,002 WIND407,9701,288,2672,268,9915,194,873

14. FINAL REMARKS RES deployment entails a significant direct economic impact for Morocco in terms of GDP and employment. Additionally, preliminary results of a GEM shows that the increase in energy capacity could increase potential growth, rising real GDP growth between 0.1%-0.4%, lowering consumption and exporting prices and noticeable increasing labor income and public savings and revenues. Comparing technologies, wind farms seems the tech alternative that produces more benefits in terms of GDP and employment growth is the installation of wind farms. Technology import dependency limits the positive impact of RES deployment.

15. RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN SOME ADITIONAL MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS Taking into account the General Equilibrium Model of the “Haut Commisariat du Plan de Maroc”: Real GDP growth could be higher by 0.4% in the first years to 0.1% in the end would mean that the potential growth will increase with the increase in energy capacity. Increase of labor income which will be higher by 1.71%. Government savings which will increase by 3.8%. Total government revenue will be higher by 0.64%