1. An Integrated Project under the 6 th Framework Programme of the EU Project Overview Project Office can be contacted on ensemblesfp6@metoffice.gov.uk Web site is http://www.ensembles-eu.org ENSEMBLES

2. Page 2© Crown copyright 2004 Outline  Motivation for the project  What is the project  What will the project do

3. Page 3© Crown copyright 2004 Motivation Predictions of natural climate variability and the human impact on climate are inherently probabilistic due to uncertainties in:  initial conditions  representation of key processes within models  climatic forcing factors Reliable estimates of climatic risk can only be made through ensemble integrations of Earth-System Models in which these uncertainties are explicitly incorporated. The ENSEMBLES project will provide these probabilistic estimates.

4. Page 4© Crown copyright 2004 We can produce a small number of different predictions with no idea of how reliable they might be Current Status of Climate Change Prediction

5. Page 5© Crown copyright 2004 Probabilistic Climate Predictions 2080s SE England winter rainfall Probability 0% 20% 40% 60% 2080s SE England winter rainfall Probability 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% current position required position

6. Page 6© Crown copyright 2004 Future emission scenariosEffects of natural variability Modelling of Earth system processes Sources of uncertainty

7. Page 7© Crown copyright 2004 Climate Prediction Modelling From Murphy et al, Nature 2004

8. Page 8© Crown copyright 2004 Ensemble Climate Prediction  Run ensembles of different climate models to sample uncertainties  Measure variations in reliability between models  Produce probabalistic predictions of climate change

9. Page 9© Crown copyright 2004 The ENSEMBLES Project  A five year project supported by funding under FP6 Started 1 September 2004  Funding from EC of 15 million Euros  About 66 partners from across EU, Switzerland, Australia, US  Ten Research Themes (~300 page DoW)  Project will be managed by a Management Board under the terms of a Consortium Agreement  Follows on from/builds upon FP5 project (e.g. DEMETER, MICE, PRUDENCE, STARDEX)

10. Page 10© Crown copyright 2004 Strategic Objectives  Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state-of-the-art high resolution, global and regional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales  Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System  Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management

11. Page 11© Crown copyright 2004 Scientific Objectives 1.Produce probabilistic predictions from seasonal to decadal and longer timescales and use these to explore the related impacts 2.Integrate additional processes in climate models 3.Develop high resolution regional climate models along with high quality gridded climate datasets for Europe 4.Reduce uncertainty in climate predictions and impact estimates 5.Increased application of climate predictions 6.Increased availability of scientific knowledge and provision of relevant information related to the impacts of climate change

12. Page 12© Crown copyright 2004 Overview of Research Themes RT1 James Murphy, Tim Palmer  To build and test an ensemble prediction system based on global Earth System Models for use in the generation of multi-model simulations of future climate in RT2A. RT2A Jean-Francois Royer, Guy Brasseur  To produce sets of climate simulations and provide the multi-model results needed in other RTs: validation RT5, understanding processes RT4, as well as providing boundary conditions and forcing fields for regional model simulations RT2B.

13. Page 13© Crown copyright 2004 Overview of Research Themes (continued) RT3 Jens Christensen, Markku Rummukainen  To provide improved climate model tools developed in the context of regional models, first at 50 km, later at 25 km resolution for specified sub-regions, including provision of a multi-model based ensemble system for regional climate prediction for use in RT2B. RT2B Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob  To provide ensemble based regional climate scenarios and seasonal to decadal hindcasts for use in other RTs: understanding processes RT4, validation RT5, and impacts studies RT6.

14. Page 14© Crown copyright 2004 Overview of Research Themes (continued) RT4 Julia Slingo, Herve le Treut  To advance the understanding of the basic science at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, exploiting integrations performed in RT2A, linking with RT5 on the evaluation of the ensemble prediction system and feeding back results to RT1. RT5 Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank  To perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble prediction system, including the production of high resolution observational dataset, and using integrations from RT1, RT2A, RT2B and RT3.

15. Page 15© Crown copyright 2004 Overview of Research Themes (continued) RT6 Andy Morse, Colin Prentice  To carry out climate impact assessments, including linking impact models to ENSEMBLES probabalistic scenarios produced in RT2A and RT2B, in order to develop risk based estimates of impacts. RT7 Richard Tol, Roberto Roson  To provide scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, land-use changes and adaptive capacity with and without greenhouse gas reduction policies, and test the sensitivity of these scenarios to climate change. RT8 Martin Beniston, Christos Giannakopolous  Represents the interface between the ENSEMBLES scientific consortium and a wider audience that includes scientists, stakeholders, policymakers and the general public.

16. Page 16© Crown copyright 2004 Research Themes

17. Page 17© Crown copyright 2004 RT0 Management The Project Office: ENSEMBLES Co-ordinator Dave Griggs ENSEMBLES Director Chris Hewitt ENSEMBLES Secretary Pip Gilbert Assisted by: ENSEMBLES EC Project Officer Georgios Amanatidis Met Office EU Manager Adrian Broad ENSEMBLES Management Board 2 RT co-ordinators per RT RT Steering Groups Work Package leaders All participants

18. Page 18© Crown copyright 2004 Concluding remarks I Integrates world-leading European research  Participation by main European modelling centres to provide earth system model (ESM) and regional model components  Exploits PRISM infrastructure to explore uncertainty using multi- model approach  Strengthened collaboration between physical climate modellers and experts in the carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry  Participation by applications modellers to deliver climate impacts predictions of societal relevance  Uses techniques and knowledge gained at seasonal timescales and applies them to decadal and longer timescales

19. Page 19© Crown copyright 2004 Quantifies and reduces uncertainty in representation of Earth system  Carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate to be considered together in a rigorous and interactive way  Combination of global and regional models enables resolution of adequate geographic detail, capturing both regional effects/impacts but including global teleconnections  Economic and social dimensions of uncertainty to be considered  Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, lead to increased understanding, and influence the development of the next generation of models, thereby leading to uncertainty reduction in the future Concluding remarks II

20. Page 20© Crown copyright 2004