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1 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts
2 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES A five year project under EC Framework Programme VI Funding from EC of 15 million Euros 70 partners from EU, Switzerland, Australia, US Ten Research Themes (RT)s
3 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES – Strategic Objectives Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state- of-the-art high resolution, global and regional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management
4 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES – Scientific Objectives Produce probabilistic predictions from seasonal to decadal and longer timescales through the use of ensembles, and use these to explore the related impacts Integrate additional processes in climate models to produce true earth system models Develop higher resolution climate models to provide more regionally detailed climate predictions and better information on extreme events
5 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES – Scientific Objectives Reduce uncertainty in climate predictions and impact estimates through increased understanding of climate processes and feedbacks and through evaluation and validation of models and techniques Increased application of climate predictions by a growing and increasingly diverse user community Increased availability of scientific knowledge and provision of relevant information related to the impacts of climate change, within the scientific community, and to stakeholders, policymakers and the public
6 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Research Themes RTNameCurrent co-ordinators 0Project integration, management and promotionDave Griggs 1Development of the Ensemble Prediction SystemJames Murphy, Tim Palmer 2AProduction of seasonal to decadal hindcasts andJean-François Royer, Guy Brasseur climate change scenarios (Model Engine Part 1) 2BProduction of Regional Climate Scenarios for Impact Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob Assessments (Model Engine Part 2) 3Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Jens Christensen, Model Ensembles for EuropeMarkku Rummukainen 4Understanding the processes governing climate Julia Slingo, Herve le Treut variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events 5Independent comprehensive evaluation of the Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank ENSEMBLES simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses 6Assessments of impacts of climate changeAndy Morse, Colin Prentice 7Scenarios and Policy ImplicationsRichard Tol, Roberto Roson 8Dissemination, Education, and TrainingMartin Beniston, Christos Giannakopolous
7 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Integrates world-leading European research Participation by main European modelling centres to provide earth system model (ESM) and regional model components Exploits PRISM infrastructure, where possible, to explore uncertainty using multi-model approach Strengthened collaboration between physical climate modellers and experts in the carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry Participation by applications modellers to deliver climate impacts predictions of societal relevance Uses techniques and knowledge gained at seasonal timescales and applies them to decadal and longer timescales
8 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Quantifies and reduces uncertainty in representation of Earth system Carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate to be considered together in a rigorous and interactive way Combination of global and regional models enables resolution of adequate geographic detail, capturing both regional effects/impacts but including global teleconnections Economic and social dimensions of uncertainty to be considered Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, lead to increased understanding, and influence the development of the next generation of models, thereby leading to uncertainty reduction in the future
9 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Project will be managed by a Management Board under the terms of a Consortium Agreement Co-ordinated by Dave Griggs at the Met Offices Hadley Centre Expected start date 1 September 2004 First deliverables/milestones include a kick-off meeting, development of web sites, choice of common set of forcings and scenarios
ENSEMBLES – Progress Report WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, April 2007 Project Office can be contacted on
Africa Adaptation Programme NMS requirements for GFCS related research and capacity development Joseph D. Intsiful Data and information Management Expert.
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO OMM WMO Climate & Water Department Climate Applications.
RT1 Development of the Ensemble Prediction System Aim Build and test an ensemble prediction system based on global Earth System models developed in Europe,
EC Research in the field of climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation (an update) Wolfram Schrimpf Deputy Head of Unit Climate Change & Natural.
World Climate Research Programme Moving Towards Future WCRP Progress and Plans Ghassem R. Asrar & Antonio J. Busalacchi.
FP7 - Socio-economic sciences and humanities programme University of Nottingham 12 October 2009.
RT4: Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events Coordinators: UREADMM.
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Workshop Summary and Recommendations.
Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Presentation to AMS Board on Enterprise Communications September 2012.
Reflecting on STI in Africa as drivers for sustainable development Lidia Brito Director Science Policy and Capacity Building Division UNESCO
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO OMM WMO Climate & Water Department Global Framework for.
EuropeAid Raul MATEUS PAULA & Renata RUSSEL Head of Unit C4 & Programme manager, Centralised Operations for the ACP Countries, European Commission, EuropeAid.
1st meeting ECDS Scientific Advisory Board and 10th meeting ECDS Board Climate change data and information needs and relevant EEA activities André Jol.
1 Feedback and Guidance from the World Meteorological Organization Wenjian Zhang Director Observing and Information Systems Department WMO.
Horizon 2020 Overview University of Bristol 24 May 2012 Emma Carey
Citizens and governance in a knowledge based society Information on the open calls in Priority 7.
WWRP 1 The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Long Term Plan including the development of Regional Environmental Prediction Systems Gilbert Brunet.
Work programme 2009 – Info Day European Commission – DG Enterprise & Industry E-M. Engdahl Information Day 16th September 2009 Brussels Kristien Van Goey.
Research Theme RT2A: Production of seasonal to decadal hindcasts and climate change scenarios (Model Engine Part 1) RT Leaders: Guy Brasseur (MPIMET, Hamburg)
Horizon 2020 Department of Physics 1 st May 2014 Research Operations Presenter: Renata Schaeffer Ext: 61648
Premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA methods - Anchor paper Theme 3 Premises and practices in combining quantitative and.
ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, November 2007 Potential WP Participants (known absentees underlined): DJF, DISAT, FMI, FUB, LUND,
Knowledge base for Forward- Looking Information and Assessment (FLIS) Development of a platform to support long-term decision making.
International Urban Parks Alliance Workshop Dublin 2007 INTERNATIONAL URBAN PARKS WORKSHOP Setting the Agenda for Urban Parks Dublin, September 2007.
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water EC-LXII/Doc. 3.1, Rep. 3.1 Enhanced Capabilities of Members to Produce.
Integration of Clinical Research in an Hospital Information System: The IMI EHR4CR Project Electronic Health Records for Clinical Research HL7 Educational.
The Swedish Institute for Climate and Policy Research Svenskt centrum för klimatpolitisk forskning Vulnerability to Environmental Changes Climate change.
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO WMO STRATEGIC PLANNING CBS Management Group 24 June 2009.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Research on Climate Change DrGeorgios AMANATIDIS Environment Directorate Research DG, European Commission.
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