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1 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts
2 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES A five year project under EC Framework Programme VI Funding from EC of 15 million Euros 70 partners from EU, Switzerland, Australia, US Ten Research Themes (RT)s
3 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES – Strategic Objectives Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state- of-the-art high resolution, global and regional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management
4 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES – Scientific Objectives Produce probabilistic predictions from seasonal to decadal and longer timescales through the use of ensembles, and use these to explore the related impacts Integrate additional processes in climate models to produce true earth system models Develop higher resolution climate models to provide more regionally detailed climate predictions and better information on extreme events
5 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES – Scientific Objectives Reduce uncertainty in climate predictions and impact estimates through increased understanding of climate processes and feedbacks and through evaluation and validation of models and techniques Increased application of climate predictions by a growing and increasingly diverse user community Increased availability of scientific knowledge and provision of relevant information related to the impacts of climate change, within the scientific community, and to stakeholders, policymakers and the public
6 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Research Themes RTNameCurrent co-ordinators 0Project integration, management and promotionDave Griggs 1Development of the Ensemble Prediction SystemJames Murphy, Tim Palmer 2AProduction of seasonal to decadal hindcasts andJean-François Royer, Guy Brasseur climate change scenarios (Model Engine Part 1) 2BProduction of Regional Climate Scenarios for Impact Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob Assessments (Model Engine Part 2) 3Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Jens Christensen, Model Ensembles for EuropeMarkku Rummukainen 4Understanding the processes governing climate Julia Slingo, Herve le Treut variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events 5Independent comprehensive evaluation of the Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank ENSEMBLES simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses 6Assessments of impacts of climate changeAndy Morse, Colin Prentice 7Scenarios and Policy ImplicationsRichard Tol, Roberto Roson 8Dissemination, Education, and TrainingMartin Beniston, Christos Giannakopolous
7 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Integrates world-leading European research Participation by main European modelling centres to provide earth system model (ESM) and regional model components Exploits PRISM infrastructure, where possible, to explore uncertainty using multi-model approach Strengthened collaboration between physical climate modellers and experts in the carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry Participation by applications modellers to deliver climate impacts predictions of societal relevance Uses techniques and knowledge gained at seasonal timescales and applies them to decadal and longer timescales
8 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Quantifies and reduces uncertainty in representation of Earth system Carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate to be considered together in a rigorous and interactive way Combination of global and regional models enables resolution of adequate geographic detail, capturing both regional effects/impacts but including global teleconnections Economic and social dimensions of uncertainty to be considered Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, lead to increased understanding, and influence the development of the next generation of models, thereby leading to uncertainty reduction in the future
9 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Project will be managed by a Management Board under the terms of a Consortium Agreement Co-ordinated by Dave Griggs at the Met Offices Hadley Centre Expected start date 1 September 2004 First deliverables/milestones include a kick-off meeting, development of web sites, choice of common set of forcings and scenarios
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 ENSEMBLES Kick-off Meeting Dave Griggs, Director Hadley Centre, 15 September 2004.
An Integrated Project under the 6 th Framework Programme of the EU Project Overview Project Office can be contacted on Web.
Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia
Page 1GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 ENSEMBLES. Page 2GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 The ENSEMBLES Project Began 4 years ago, will end in December 2009 Supported by.
Office of Science Office of Biological and Environmental Research DOE Workshop on Community Modeling and Long-term Predictions of the Integrated Water.
© Crown copyright Met Office An Introduction to PRECIS PRECIS Workshop, University of Reading, 13 th -17 th May, 2013.
THEME[ENV ]: Inter-operable integration of shared Earth Observation in the Global Context Duration: Sept. 1, 2011 – Aug. 31, 2014 Total EC.
An Integrated Project under EU 6th Framework Programme Kick-off meeting, Hamburg September 2004 Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK
CLARIS A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies A project within the EC 6th Framework Programme 1 July 2004 to 30.
ECOMS: European Climate Observations, Modelling and Services Chris Hewitt, UK Met Office ECOMS Kick-Off Meeting, Barcelona, 6-9 th November 2012.
The Climate Prediction Project Global Climate Information for Regional Adaptation and Decision-Making in the 21 st Century.
RT6 RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings ENSEMBLES Meetings RT3 Copenhagen, RT4/RT5 Paris, February 2005 RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate.
RT4: Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events Coordinators: ●
RT4: Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events Coordinators: UREADMM.
UNCLASS1 Dr. Gene Whitney Assistant Director for Environment Office of Science and Technology Policy Executive Office of the President WISP Meeting - July.
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Regional climate modelling Daniela Jacob.
Living with Climate Change Systemic investigation of climate change impacts on our society and efficient adaptation / mitigation scenarios to sustain our.
Natural Hazards. Integrated Risk Assessment & Scientific Advice Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Hydro-meteorologicalVolcanoesEarthquakes.
© Crown copyright Met Office Uncertainties in the Development of Climate Scenarios Climate Data Analysis for Crop Modelling workshop Kasetsart University,
Climate Change Scenarios for Agriculture Sam Gameda and Budong Qian Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Ottawa,
CORDEX Scope, or What is CORDEX? Provide a set of regional climate scenarios (including uncertainties) covering the period , for the majority.
Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation.
Theme 3:. WP10 Future changes in ocean carbonate chemistry Objectives: Determine future changes in carbonate chemistry (pH, CaCO 3 saturation states,
Welcome to the PRECIS training workshop Tanzania Meteorological Agency, 29 th June – 3 rd July 2015.
(The Global Programme of Research On Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation) Adaptation Knowledge Day V: Climate Change Adaptation Gaps BONN,
World Climate Research Programme Joint Scientific Committee – 31 Antalya, Turkey.
© Crown copyright Met Office Uncertainties in the Development of Climate Scenarios PRECIS Workshop, MMD, KL, November 2012.
Short presentation of an expertise profile for the 6 th call Space in FP7 Name, Organisation type of organisation (SME, research centre, university, company,
STARDEX STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes for European regions A project within the EC 5th Framework Programme EVK2-CT
What is GEO? launched in response to calls for action by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development, Earth Observation Summits, and by the G8 (Group.
THEME[ENV ]: Inter- operable integration of shared Earth Observation in the Global Context Duration: Sept. 1, 2011 – Aug. 31, 2014 Total EC.
© Crown copyright Met Office ACRE working group 2: downscaling David Hein and Richard Jones Research funded by.
ARECS: ADVANCING RENEWABLE ENERGY with CLIMATE SERVICES Melanie Davis, Climate Services for Renewable Energy GEO European Project Workshop, 15 th April.
AGENDA ITEM 4: FOLLOW-UP ON THE DECISIONS OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL CONGRESS ON THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL BOARD ON CLIMATE SERVICES AGENDA ITEM 4.1: IMPLEMENTATION.
FP7 /1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION - Research DG - December 2006 Building a Europe of Knowledge Towards the Seventh Framework Programme Marta Moren Abat,
RT1 Development of the Ensemble Prediction System Aim Build and test an ensemble prediction system based on global Earth System models developed in Europe,
Global warming: temperature and precipitation observations and predictions.
Short presentation of a project proposal for the 6 th call Space in FP7 „Draft proposal title“ Name, Organisation type of organisation (SME, research centre,
ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, November 2007 Potential WP Participants (known absentees underlined): DJF, DISAT, FMI, FUB, LUND,
© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office activities related to needs of humanitarian agencies Anca Brookshaw.
The Preparatory Phase Proposal a first draft to be discussed.
FP7* support to GEO activities Update for 5 th GEO ADC Meeting A Edwards Washington, D.C., U.S.A September 2007 * FP7 is the European Community’s.
Adaptations to Climate Change in Africa’s Water Sector: Contributions of the World Meteorological Organization Datius Rutashobya Climate and Water Department.
World Weather Research Programme What / How does the Programme help the Society? (Item 3.3) 24 May 2011.
FAOCGIARWMO. How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? How might food systems be adapted to.
MERGE 5 years from now MORE OF THE SAME OR MORE THAN THAT?
ClimDev-Africa Program & African Climate Policy Center (ACPC) AMCEN Special Session Side Event 27 May 2009.
© Crown copyright Met Office Evidence in Science and Policy Scientific evidence Vicky Pope.
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