1. 1 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts

2. 2 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES A five year project under EC Framework Programme VI Funding from EC of 15 million Euros 70 partners from EU, Switzerland, Australia, US Ten Research Themes (RT)s

3. 3 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES – Strategic Objectives Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state- of-the-art high resolution, global and regional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management

4. 4 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES – Scientific Objectives Produce probabilistic predictions from seasonal to decadal and longer timescales through the use of ensembles, and use these to explore the related impacts Integrate additional processes in climate models to produce true earth system models Develop higher resolution climate models to provide more regionally detailed climate predictions and better information on extreme events

5. 5 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES – Scientific Objectives Reduce uncertainty in climate predictions and impact estimates through increased understanding of climate processes and feedbacks and through evaluation and validation of models and techniques Increased application of climate predictions by a growing and increasingly diverse user community Increased availability of scientific knowledge and provision of relevant information related to the impacts of climate change, within the scientific community, and to stakeholders, policymakers and the public

6. 6 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Research Themes RTNameCurrent co-ordinators 0Project integration, management and promotionDave Griggs 1Development of the Ensemble Prediction SystemJames Murphy, Tim Palmer 2AProduction of seasonal to decadal hindcasts andJean-François Royer, Guy Brasseur climate change scenarios (Model Engine Part 1) 2BProduction of Regional Climate Scenarios for Impact Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob Assessments (Model Engine Part 2) 3Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Jens Christensen, Model Ensembles for EuropeMarkku Rummukainen 4Understanding the processes governing climate Julia Slingo, Herve le Treut variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events 5Independent comprehensive evaluation of the Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank ENSEMBLES simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses 6Assessments of impacts of climate changeAndy Morse, Colin Prentice 7Scenarios and Policy ImplicationsRichard Tol, Roberto Roson 8Dissemination, Education, and TrainingMartin Beniston, Christos Giannakopolous

7. 7 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Integrates world-leading European research Participation by main European modelling centres to provide earth system model (ESM) and regional model components Exploits PRISM infrastructure, where possible, to explore uncertainty using multi-model approach Strengthened collaboration between physical climate modellers and experts in the carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry Participation by applications modellers to deliver climate impacts predictions of societal relevance Uses techniques and knowledge gained at seasonal timescales and applies them to decadal and longer timescales

8. 8 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Quantifies and reduces uncertainty in representation of Earth system Carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate to be considered together in a rigorous and interactive way Combination of global and regional models enables resolution of adequate geographic detail, capturing both regional effects/impacts but including global teleconnections Economic and social dimensions of uncertainty to be considered Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, lead to increased understanding, and influence the development of the next generation of models, thereby leading to uncertainty reduction in the future

9. 9 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Project will be managed by a Management Board under the terms of a Consortium Agreement Co-ordinated by Dave Griggs at the Met Offices Hadley Centre Expected start date 1 September 2004 First deliverables/milestones include a kick-off meeting, development of web sites, choice of common set of forcings and scenarios