1. The Childhood Origins of Adult Socioeconomic Disadvantage: Do Cohort and Gender Matter? John Hobcraft and Wendy Sigle-Rushton GeNet Conference 14 December 2006 Queens College, Cambridge

2. Childhood Markers of Adult Disadvantage Childhood Indicators: Poverty Housing Social Class Family Type Parental Interest in School Child Behaviour Academic Test Scores School Absences Contact with Police Adult Social Disadvantage: Social Housing Benefits Household Income Social Class Education Unemployment Age at First Birth Physical and Emotional Health

3. Research Questions Are childhood and family antecedents the same? For both the 1958 and 1970 cohort? For both genders? Do gender differentials change over time?

4. Data Data: two prospective studies National Child Development Study (NCDS) British Cohort Study (BCS) BaselineWave 1Wave 2Wave 3Wave 4Wave 5 NCDS Age 0, 1958 Age 7, 1965 Age 11, 1969 Age 16, 1974 Age 23, 1981 Age 33, 1991 BCS Age 0, 1970 Age 5, 1975 Age 10, 1980 Age 16, 1986 Age 26, 1996 Age 30, 2000

5. Data Data: two prospective studies National Child Development Study (NCDS) British Cohort Study (BCS) BaselineWave 1Wave 2Wave 3Wave 4Wave 5 NCDS Age 0, 1958 Age 7, 1965 Age 11, 1969 Age 16, 1974 Age 23, 1981 Age 33, 1991 BCS Age 0, 1970 Age 5, 1975 Age 10, 1980 Age 16, 1986 Age 26, 1996 Age 30, 2000

6. Data Data: Two British Cohort Studies National Child Development Study (NCDS) British Cohort Study (BCS) BaselineWave 1Wave 2Wave 3Wave 4Wave 5 NCDS Age 0, 1958 Age 7, 1965 Age 11, 1969 Age 16, 1974 Age 23, 1981 Age 33, 1991 BCS Age 0, 1970 Age 5, 1975 Age 10, 1980 Age 16, 1986 Age 26, 1996 Age 30, 2000

7. Inputs and Outcomes Childhood Indicators Poverty (waves 2 & 3 only) Housing Social Class Family Structure Parental Interest in School (Wave 2 only) Temperament (Aggression, Anxiety, Restlessness) Academic Test Scores Adult Disadvantage In Social Housing On Benefits Low Household Income Low Social Class

8. Measurement and Method Majority of childhood indicators are summarised across multiple childhood waves Hierarchical coding of dummies within groups Step-wise Logistic Regression repeat backward and forward fitting strict significance threshold of p<0.001

9. Measurement and Method Common or pervasive antecedents Same response, but different childhood experiences? Evidence of cohort or gender (or both) differentials Black-box main effects of cohort or gender Differential responses to same antecedent Additional antecedents

10. Results Summary Main effects Retained for all outcomes (9 pervasive measures) Academic test scores Parental housing tenure Parental interest in education Temperament: aggression, restlessness Poverty Significant links to Fathers social class in care and born out-of-wedlock Few links to social class of origin or other family structure No link to anxiety

11. Results Summary Very few interactions retained For gender Social housing: social class of origin Benefits: constant, any parental disruption Low household income: missing parental interest in education Low social class: social class of origin For cohort Social housing: parental housing tenure Benefits: parental housing tenure, parental interest in education Low household income: Social class of father (x2), academic test scores Low social class: constant, social class of origin For gender and cohort Low social class: parental housing tenure, social class of origin

12. Results Summary Social Housing BenefitsLow hh Income Low skill soc. class All Pervasive main 999936 Other main 1051521 Gender12115 Cohort12328 Gender by cohort 00022 All (of 179)21181419

13. Conclusions Childhood/family antecedents are linked to subsequent outcomes Similarity and consistency in relationships Gender and cohort differences often mediated by only a few variables Over-specification? Misleading results?