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ESDS Longitudinal: Introducing the UK cohort and birth studies Peter Shepherd 21 June 2004 National Child Development Study and 1970 British Cohort Study
Birth Cohort Studies National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) Those living in GB born in one week in 1946 National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) Those living in GB born in one week in 1946 National Child Development Study (NCDS) All those living in GB born in one week in 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS) All those living in GB born in one week in British Cohort Study (BCS70) All those living in GB born in one week in British Cohort Study (BCS70) All those living in GB born in one week in 1970 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) All those born in selected areas of UK over 12 months beginning September 2000 in England and Wales, and December 2000 in Scotland and Northern Ireland Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) All those born in selected areas of UK over 12 months beginning September 2000 in England and Wales, and December 2000 in Scotland and Northern Ireland
Birth Cohort Studies - 2 Age of cohort members at time of main surveys
National Child Development Study - NCDS 17,415 individuals born in a week in GB in 1958 Follow-up of whole sample 12,000 still participating
British Cohort Study - BCS70 16,571 individuals born in a week in GB in 1970 Follow-up of whole sample 12,000 still participating
Goals of Longitudinal Study Modelling causal processes from birth to adulthood leading to current outcomes and assessing the risk of future outcomes. Assessing the stability of hypothesised causal processes across cohorts. Comparing the prevalence of behaviour and attributes across cohorts, ages and periods. Assessing inter-generational continuities and discontinuities in circumstances, behaviour and attributes.
Design Principles Continuity & comparability Age, cohort & period effects Spatial effects Consultation Harmonisation Life course perspective
Data Specification Parameters Identify key variables representing different elements of life course in and across life domains. Find the optimum way to operationalise these via survey questions and other measures.
NCDS Follow-ups & information sources Exams – details of public examination results were gathered from schools and colleges in 1978 Information gathered includes: Health Behaviour Family Education Employment Attitudes Information gathered includes: Health Behaviour Family Education Employment Attitudes
BCS70 Follow-ups & information sources Information gathered includes: Health Behaviour Family Education Employment Attitudes Information gathered includes: Health Behaviour Family Education Employment Attitudes
Data coverage - Childhood What type of person is the child becoming? Development – physical & cognitive Medical assessments growth respiratory functioning sexual development Cognitive assessments Maths Reading Writing etc.
Data coverage - Adulthood What type of adult has the cohort member become and how did they get there? Current states Household Partnerships Family formation Housing Education Labour market & income Health Citizenship & values
Methods Variety of data collection methods used: Face to face interviews (Paper/CAPI) Proxy interviews Telephone Interviews Self completions (Paper/CASI) Assessments Medical measurements
NCDS Funding PMS: National Birthday Trust Fund. NCDS1: Department of Education & Science. NCDS2: Social Science Research Council. NCDS3: Department of Education & Science and Department of Health & Social Security. NCDS4: Department of Health & Social Security; Department of Education & Science; Department of Employment; Manpower Services Commission; and Department of the Environment. NCDS5: Economic and Social Research Council; Department of Health; Department of Social Security Employment Department; Department of Education and Science; Department of the Environment; Transport and Road Research Laboratory; Health and Safety Executive; and US National Institute of Child Health and Development. NCDS6: Economic and Social Research Council; Government Departments and Agencies (Office of National Statistics, Department for Education and Employment, Department of Social security, Department of Health, Scottish Executive, Basic Skills Agency); and the International Centre for Child Studies.
BCS70 Funding Birth: Royal College of Obstetricians & Gynaecologists; Marks and Spencer; Glaxo; Pergamon Press; and Department of Health and Social Security. Five: Medical Research Council; Economic and Social Research Council; National Birthday Trust; Action Research for the Crippled Child; Leverhulme Trust; and other charitable trusts. Ten: Rowntree Memorial Trust; Department of Education and Science; Department of Health and Social Security; Manpower Services Commission; and US National Institute of Child Health and Development. Sixteen: Home Office; Cancer Research Campaign; Beechams; Kelloggs; Westland; HTV; Channel 4; Allied Lyons; WT Grant Foundation; Sir J Knott Settlement; Hayward Foundation; Daily Star; New Moorgate Trust; Lankelly Foundation; Laura Ashley Trust; other public and private bodies; and private donations. Twenty-six: Economic and Social Research Council. Thirty: Economic and Social Research Council; Government Departments and Agencies (Office of National Statistics, Department for Education and Employment, Department of Social security, Department of Health, Scottish Executive, Basic Skills Agency); and the International Centre for Child Studies.
NCDS – 2004 Sweep Telephone Interview Housing Partnerships – current and former Births and other pregnancies Periods of lone parenthood Absent children Children and the wider family Family income Employment status/employment history Academic education/vocational training/other courses Access to and use of computers Basic skills General health Smoking. Drinking and exercise Experience of crime Social participation Identity Postal questionnaire for those who cannot be interviewed on phone
BCS70 – 2004 Sweep CORE: All CMs Interview (CAPI) - updating social, economic, health info Self-completion (CASI) - attitudes, family life, drinking, skills, well-being, crime Adult assessments (CAPI/CASI/Paper) - functional literacy, numeracy, dyslexia PARENT & CHILD: CMs with resident natural/adopted child aged <17 Parent Interview (CAPI) - age specific (0<17) childcare, health & schooling, etc Parent Self-completion (Paper) - age specific questions on development, relationships, behaviour, discipline, school absence/exclusion, reading & schoolwork Child assessments (CAPI/Paper) - age specific (3<17) assessments of naming, copying, reading, spelling, number Child (10<17) self-completion (Paper) - leisure, relationships, school, the future drugs, crime, self-esteem In a 1 in 2 sample
BCS Sweep CORE: All Cohort Members Interview (CAPI): Housing Partnerships – current and former Births and other pregnancies Periods of lone parenthood Children and the wider family Family income Employment status/employment history Academic education Vocational training Access to and use of computers Basic skills General health Diet and exercise Height and weight Family activities, social participation, social support
BCS Sweep CORE: All Cohort Members CASI self-completion Political attitudes Family life Drinking General skills Psychological well-being Experience of crime Adult assessments Basic skills (literacy and numeracy) questions in multiple choice format (CASI/CAPI) Basic skills (literacy and numeracy) questions in an open-response format (CAPI) Reading/writing exercises (adapted from the Dyslexia Adult Screening Test) Short written task
BCS Sweep PARENT & CHILD: CMs with resident natural/adopted child aged <17 Parent Interview (CAPI) Age specific questions on: Childs physical and mental health Mothers health-related behaviour during pregnancy Parent-child separations Pre-school care Current education Parental aspirations Consent for child assessments In a 1 in 2 sample
BCS Sweep PARENT & CHILD: CMs with resident natural/adopted child aged <17 Parent Self-completion (Paper) Age specific questions on: Physical and cognitive development Parent/child relationship Childs behaviour and how s/he relates to other children and adults Disciplining children School absence/exclusion Reading and schoolwork. In a 1 in 2 sample
BCS Sweep PARENT & CHILD: CMs with resident natural/adopted child aged <17 Child assessments Age specific (3<17) assessments: Early Years (3:0 – 5:11) BAS Naming Vocabulary BAS Early Number Concepts Copying School Age (6:0 – 16:11) BAS Word Reading BAS Spelling BAS Number Skills In a 1 in 2 sample
BCS Sweep PARENT & CHILD: CMs with resident natural/adopted child aged <17 Child (10<17) Self-completion (Paper) Leisure time Relationship with their parents Attitudes to school and aspirations for the future Smoking, drinking, drug use and experience of petty crime Self-esteem In a 1 in 2 sample
The Future Complete cohort follow-ups every 8 years alternating NCDS/BCS70: next round BCS70 in 2004 including a basic skills assessment of all cohort members and inter-generational family study involving 1 in 2 cohort members and their children Telephone follow-up every 4 years: next round NCDS in 2004 Sub-sample follow-ups: biographical studies of selected cohort members
NCDS – Surveys of sub-samples NCDS: Children in Care (1965)Epilepsy (1979, 1986) Adopted Children (1967, 1973)Causes of deaths (1982) Gifted Children (1969)Successful Disadvantaged (1985) Children of Lone Parents (1973)Mothers and Children (1991) Handicapped School Leavers (1976)Respiratory Health (1993) Feasibility Study for NCDS4 (1978)Crohns Disease (1994) Smoking (1978)Basic Skills Problems (1995)
BCS70 - Surveys of sub-samples British Births Child Survey (all twins, low birth-weight & post-mature births, and a 10% random sample of the original cohort), 1972/3 South West Region Survey (95% of the cohort members living in the south west of England or Glamorgan, South Wales), 1972/3 Nursery and Playgroup Survey, 1975 Non-respondents to 5-year survey, 1977 Transition school to work and basic skills problems, 1992
NCDS Biomedical Survey (In collaboration with: Institute of Child Health; St George's Hospital Medical School; National Centre for Social Research; and others) To obtain objective measures of ill-health/biomedical risk Standing & sitting height, weight, waist & hip Blood pressure & pulse rate Ventilatory function - FEV1 & FVC Blood collection for lipids, glycosylated haemoglobin, total & specific IgE, DNA extraction Near (reading) and distant (2m) vision, stereopsis and refractive error Pure tone audiometry at 2 frequencies Psychiatric diagnostic interviews: CIS-R Saliva collection for early-morning cortisol level
NCDS Parents (In collaboration with Institute of Child Health) Morbidity and mortality in 2 generations. Examine the influence of indicators of health and growth in one generation on the health and growth of the preceding or subsequent generation Supplement existing survey data on parental height and morbidity by: Identifying NCDS parents on NHSCR Receiving vital event data on death and cancer registration
NCDS Qualitative – Basic Skills (In collaboration with National Research and Development Centre for Adult Basic Skills) Life history interviews with c100 CMs identified through self-assessment/ testing as having basic skills difficulties but not necessarily taken courses Interviews centred on: Basic skills needs & aspirations Life course events & demands Awareness of ABE policy, publicity & provision Participation in formal provision Informal resources & support networks relating to basic skills Practical engagement with literacy tasks Informal & collective acquisition of literacy/numeracy skills & events which prompt such learning Interaction of print literacy & other media usage, especially new communications technologies
NCDS Qualitative – Asset effect (In collaboration with the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and the Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion (CASE) at LSE) Explore the importance of financial assets in improving peoples life chances and removing barriers to opportunity Builds on earlier NCDS research that found positive relationships between asset holding at 23 and labour market performance, household stability, mental and physical health and some measures of citizenship at 33. Bynner J and Paxton W (2001) The asset-effect London: IPPR Quantitative - Econometric modelling of data to age 42 Qualitative - Research the life histories of CMs in more detail and to discover how they accumulated and used their assets over time, in order to try and answer what it is about holding an asset which leads to positive welfare outcomes
Publications Many hundreds of publications - list (of those we know about) on CLS website: Recently published - compares 46, 58 and 70 Cohorts Recently published - compares 46, 58 and 70 Cohorts
Findings – Independent of other influences Mothers who smoke during pregnancy are more likely to have low birth weight babies and, by age 16, these children are smaller and do worse at reading and maths. Truancy and poor school attendance are connected to problems in adult employment and marital breakdown. Being breast fed as a baby can reduce the risk of heart disease in adult life. Children whose parents separate and who grow up in poverty are often poor at maths, and are more likely to leave school early and marry in their teens. Long working hours and job insecurity are making life much harder for families now than in the past, especially where the father is working more than 50 hours a week. The more interest parents show in their childrens education, the better the children do in school.
Findings 2 – Independent of other influences Those growing up in poor home circumstances often develop asthma and chronic bronchitis as adults. Poor economic conditions at birth can disadvantage people in their subsequent employment and depress their adult incomes, but with the right support many do much better than expected Education and training make a difference. Those with O levels earn 7 per cent more than those with no qualifications. A degree can be worth 25 per cent more. Work related training boosts earnings by 12 per cent. Stepfathers are just as involved with their step-children as other fathers. Adults with poor basic skills are more likely to have grown up with parents who did not read stories to them or show interest in their educational progress.
Constraints Funding Respondent burden Reconciling different interests
Methodological Issues Measurement: fading relevance, validity and reliability Attrition and bias Question level non-response
Changes in populations and samples ESRC Project: Towards Quality Profiles for NCDS & BCS70 (Ian Plewis, Gad Nathan, Lisa Calderwood and Denise Hawkes Cohort Studies Working Paper 1. Defining the populations. 2. Non-response and response rates. 3. Patterns of response. 4. Domain response. 5. Cross-sectional response rates.
Longitudinal and cross-sectional samples Longitudinal target sample All children born (alive or dead) in GB in the reference week until they die or permanently emigrate from GB Cross-sectional target sample All children born anywhere in the reference week living in GB at the time of each sweep
Acquiring NCDS/BCS70 data UK Data Archive (UKDA) Economic and Social Data Service Centre for Longitudinal Studies
Centre for Longitudinal Studies Bedford Group, Institute of Education, University of London Access to non-computerised data Advice & guidance Workshops/Seminars Information on uses of the data/publications/ other developments (Design; data collection/analysis; cohort maintenance) Documentation/Working papers/Data Notes
NCDS/BCS70 Documentation A variety of NCDS/BCS70 documentation is available, including: Guides to datasets Lists of publications Annotated questionnaires Interactive Data Dictionaries Data Notes Other survey related documentation Working papers, etc Copies available from CLS / UK Data Archive IMPORTANT Always consult documentation before selecting/analysing NCDS/BCS70 data
Data not available via the UK data Archive Archive data updated : After major data collections Between data collections, as and when resources permit Between updates new/revised data/ derived variables made available to users via CLS Additional data are the outcome of further minor data collections; data cleaning; and insights gained from data analysis Details from CLS (web/Data Notes)