1. MET 112 1 MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 13 Climate Change Impacts: Present and Future Dr. Eugene Cordero Outline:   Fingerprints of climate change   Future impacts

2. MET 112 2 Climate Change Impacts  What signals would we expect from a warmer world? – – – – –  What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th century?

3. MET 112 3 Climate Change Impacts  What signals would we expect from a warmer world? –Higher average temperature –Higher maximum temperatures –Higher minimum temperatures –More precipitation –Higher sea level  What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th century?

4. MET 112 4  FINGERPRINTS: Direct manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures – – Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal flooding – – Arctic and Antarctic warming – Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change

5. MET 112 5  FINGERPRINTS: Direct manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures – Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather – Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal flooding – Glaciers melting – Arctic and Antarctic warming – Increases in sea level Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change

6. MET 112 6  HARBINGERS: Events that foreshadow the types of impacts likely to become more frequent and widespread with continued warming.   Earlier spring arrival   Coral reef bleaching   Droughts and fires Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change

7. MET 112 7  HARBINGERS: Events that foreshadow the types of impacts likely to become more frequent and widespread with continued warming.  Spreading disease (i.e. mosquito carrying)  Earlier spring arrival  Plant and animal range shifts and population changes  Coral reef bleaching  Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding  Droughts and fires Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change

8. Impacts over the last 100 years

9. Indicators of Climate Change Fingerprints of climate change

10. Indicators of Climate Change Fingerprints of climate change Stratosphere cooling Troposphere warming Ocean warming

11. MET 112 11 Temperature trends   Troposphere (0 - ~ 10km)   Stratosphere (10 – 50 km)     – – Early satellite data showed some cooling, but now that seemed to be instrument error.   – – Why cooling? More energy trapped in troposphere.

12. MET 112 12 Temperature trends   Troposphere (0 - ~ 10km)   Stratosphere (10 – 50 km)   Surface temperatures are warming – (Certain)   Middle troposphere is also warming (Very likely) – – Early satellite data showed some cooling, but now that seemed to be due to instrument error.   Upper atmosphere is cooling (Certain) – – Why cooling? More energy trapped in troposphere.

13. Fingerprints of climate change

14. Increases in water vapor

15. MET 112 15 Water vapor feedback   Recall how the water vapor feedback works               Current models suggest that the water vapor feedback is responsible for about the same amount of warming as warming from increases in CO2.   The importance of this feedback is still being investigated.

16. MET 112 16 Water vapor feedback   Recall how the water vapor feedback works – – Increase in temp – – Increase evaporation – – Increase in water vapor in atmosphere   Water vapor is a greenhouse gas – – Increase in greenhouse effect – – Further warming (positive feedback)   Current models suggest that the water vapor feedback is responsible for about the same amount of warming as warming from increases in CO2.   The importance of this feedback is still being investigated.

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18. MET 112 18 Global mean surface temperatures have increased

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20. MET 112 20 The Land and Oceans have both warmed

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22. MET 112 22 Precipitation patterns have changed

23. ` Svalbard, Norway (79N)

24. Arctic

25. MET 112 25   Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people due to –– ––   Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter – –– –– Sea Level rise

26. MET 112 26   Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people due to – –sea level rise and heavy rainfall events   Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter – – –very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive capacity Sea Level rise

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28. MET 112 28 Sea Levels have risen

29. Branching coralBrain coral

30. Branching coralBrain coral Increase in coral bleaching events: due to warmer ocean temperatures

31. http://www.climatehotmap.org/

32. Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase Higher minimum temperatures; fewer cold days frost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely) increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely) Increased mortality in old people in urban areas Heat stress on livestock Extended range of pests and diseases Reduced rangeland productivity, increased wildfires, decreased hydropower Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic systems Projected changes during the 21st century Examples of impacts

33. Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase Higher maximum temperatures; more hot days and heatwaves over nearly all land areas (very likely) Higher minimum temperatures; fewer cold days frost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely) more intense precipitation events over many areas (very likely) increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely) increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity, mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely) Increased mortality in old people in urban areas Damage to crops Heat stress on livestock Extended range of pests and diseases Loss of some crop/fruit Land slides, mudslides, damage to property and increased insurance costs Reduced rangeland productivity, increased wildfires, decreased hydropower Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic systems Projected changes during the 21st century Examples of impacts

34. Future impacts due to climate change

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36. MET 112 36 More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected

37. MET 112 37 As a result of warming, plant species would be expected to migrate 1.North in the Southern Hemisphere 2.North in the Northern Hemisphere 3.South in the Northern Hemisphere 4.South in the Southern Hemisphere 5.To higher altitudes 6.To lower altitudes 7.1 and 6 8.2 and 5

38. Where would you expect to see the strongest evidence of climate change? 1.Tropical latitudes 2.Midlatitude deserts 3.Midlatitude oceans 4.High latitudes 5.High altitude mountains

39. If ice melt was to stop even though average temperatures continue to warm, how would sea level respond 1.Sea level would continue to rise 2.Sea level would reach an equilibrium 3.Sea level would decrease

40. MET 112 40   Water availability –– –– – –Decrease in many water scarce regions –– ––   Increased agricultural productivity in some mid- latitude regions; reduction in the tropics and sub- tropics –– –– Impacts on water and agriculture

41. MET 112 41   Water availability – –Increase in some in some water-scarce regions, – –Decrease in many water scarce regions – –Globally, fresh water become more scarce   Increased agricultural productivity in some mid- latitude regions; reduction in the tropics and sub- tropics – –Overall impact is negative Impacts on water and agriculture

42. MET 112 42 Effect on human health   Reduced winter mortality in –– ––   Increased incidence of heat stress mortality –– ––   Increased incidence diseases in the tropics and sub-tropics – –such as malaria and –– ––

43. MET 112 43 Effect on human health   Reduced winter mortality in – –mid- and high-latitudes   Increased incidence of heat stress mortality – –Tropics and midlatitudes   Increased incidence diseases in the tropics and sub-tropics – –such as malaria and – –water-borne diseases such as cholera,

44. MET 112 44 Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change  Impacts are worse – – –large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors  Lower capacity to adapt –  Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries, 

45. MET 112 45 Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change  Impacts are worse – –already more flood and drought prone –large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors  Lower capacity to adapt –because of a lack of financial and technological capacity  Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries,  Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in most developing countries

46. MET 112 46 Climate change and California Average Temperature: Winter - Summer – 1. 1.Coastal cities: 2. 2.Human health: 3. 3.Water resources: 4. 4.Agriculture:

47. Report Issued in 2004   Sections include: –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––

48. MET 112 48 Report Issued in 2004   Sections include: – –Climate projections – –Sea levels – –Extreme heat – –Health impacts – –Water resource – –Agriculture and vegetation

53. MET 112 53 Climate change and California Average Temperature: Winter - warmer winters - snowpack declines by 70-90% by 2090 Summer – warmer summers (5-15F by 2090) 1. 1.Coastal cities: coastal erosion by sea level rise. 2. 2.Human health: Urban air pollution/heat extremes impact most vulnerable 3. 3.Water resources: Total water, but early runoff from Sierras costly to adapt. 4. 4.Agriculture: Major challenge to various crops industries.

54. Movie: Hot times in Alaska

55. Write a paragraph explaining why the Arctic is experiencing more rapid warming compared to the lower latitudes, and what impact this is having on the Guillemonts in this movie.

56. Fingerprints and Harbingers Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather Sea level rise and coastal flooding Glaciers melting Arctic and Antarctic warming Spreading disease Earlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and population declines Coral reef bleaching Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Droughts and fires

57. MET 112 57 The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics El Niño years La Niña years

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59. MET 112 59 Weather-related economic damages have increased

60. MET 112 60 2020s 2050s 2080s

61. MET 112 61 The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics El Niño years La Niña years The frequency, persistence and magnitude of El- Nino events have increased in the last 20 years