Presentation on theme: "Peak Oil, Climate Change, and Energy Alternatives Professor Leonard Rodberg Department of Urban Studies Office Powdermaker Rm 250A"— Presentation transcript:
Peak Oil, Climate Change, and Energy Alternatives Professor Leonard Rodberg Department of Urban Studies Office Powdermaker Rm 250A Telephone Global Climate Change and Public Policy
US Oil Production and Imports 2004
The Time Course of Production of any Non-renewal Resource according to M. King Hubbert
It Gets Harder and Harder to Find Oil
Hubbert Curve for US Oil Production
US Oil Production and Imports 2004
The Paper that Started It All… *Publication No. 95, Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research Division, Houston, Texas **Chief Consultant (General Geology).
World Energy Use by Fuel
Hubbert Curve for World Oil Production
The Decline of New Oil Discoveries
Oil Production Worldwide
The Optimists’ View
Taking the Long View: The History of the Human Race according to M. King Hubbert
It’s Getting Warmer
And the Sea Level is Rising
What are the Greenhouse Gases? Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Principal Source: Burning of Fossil Fuels: Oil, natural gas/methane, coal Hydrocarbons (C n H m) ) + Oxygen (O 2 ) CO 2 + H 2 O Also Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
The Concentration of CO2 is Growing
Radiative Forcing Components Carbon, and Fossil Fuels, are the Culprit
The Long View CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O Concentrations - far exceed pre-industrial values - increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities Relatively little variation before the industrial era Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change
At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include: –Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, –Widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns –and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones Direct Observation of Recent Climate Change
Impacts Worldwide GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning Signs Fingerprints and Harbingers Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather Sea level rise and coastal flooding Glaciers melting Arctic and Antarctic warming Spreading disease Earlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and population declines Coral reef bleaching Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Droughts and fires
Natural gas causes more global warming but less air pollution mortality than coal over 150 years due to less sulfate (a cooling agent) and more methane (a warming agent) from natural gas than coal. Coal causes higher mortality times more CO2 and air pollution per kWh than wind Hydrofracking causes land and water supply degradation Why Not Natural Gas?
9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from mining & refining uranium, using fossil fuels for electricity during the years to permit (6-10 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with 2-5 years for a wind or solar farm Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted) Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation Unresolved waste issues Why Not Nuclear?
Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air pollution as gasoline -- Corn E85: % of CO 2 emissions of gasoline -- Cellulosic E85: % of CO 2 emissions of gasoline Wind: <1% of CO 2 emissions as gasoline Enormous land use and water requirements Why Not Ethanol?
U.S. Carbon Stabilization via Wedges Source: Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p. 57
Wind Electricity Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power. Today: 50,000 MW (1/40) Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association) Wind Electricity
Electricity Nuclear Site: Surry station, James River, VA; 1625 MW since Credit: Dominion. A revised goal: retrievable storage Natural-U plants (no enrichment), no reprocessing Universal rules and international governance Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge. Nuclear Electricity Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: 700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power.
Efficient Use of Electricity lighting motorscogeneration Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:. 25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in commercial and residential buildings Target commercial and multifamily buildings. Efficient Use of Electricity
Efficient Use of Fuel Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1 ton of carbon. 2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg. 2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year. Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl Efficient Use of Fuel
Carbon Storage Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins Sleipner project, offshore Norway Carbon Storage Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: 3500 MtCO 2 /yr 100 x U.S. CO 2 injection rate for EOR A flow of CO 2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today
Reforestation and Land Conservation
NYC Energy Profile 1979
Saving Energy in NYC Source: L. Rodberg and G. Stokes, The Village Voice, Feb. 18, 1980
PlaNYC Mitigation Measures
Planning for a Major Hurricane
Both Adaptation and Mitigation: Mayor’s PlaNYC Adapts to Some Inevitable Climate Change Protect our city’s vital infrastructure Work with vulnerable neighborhoods to develop site-specific strategies Launch a citywide strategic planning process for climate change adaptation