1. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk University of Aveiro City Case Overview Department of Environment and Planning University of Aveiro (Portugal) Ana Isabel Miranda and Carlos Borrego

2. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk An introduction... The cities involved in SUTRA differ widely in terms of culture, environmental conditions, size, economic structure, social composition and demography. But... they face common challenges in their transportation systems:  Air quality  Employment  Traffic congestion  Noise ....  Economic competitiveness €

3. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk An introduction... A common methodology and a set of tools were used by SUTRA cities to generate directly comparable results for the overall evaluation. Indicators Scenarios Models

4. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk TOPICS TO BE COVERED  City case description  Models cascade application - baseline - common scenarios  Final comments  City case description  Main conclusions  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios

5. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk  City case description location, urban structure and land-use demography meteo conditions and air pollution input indicators  Main conclusions  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios The SUTRA cities Lisbon Geneva Gdansk Thessaloniki Genoa TelAviv

6. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Meteorological conditions and air pollution problems GENOA  mild Mediterranean climate  topographic and orographic peculiarity: sea and mountains  affect pollutants dispersion LISBON  complex sea breeze circulations  traffic NO x emissions represents 97% of total anthropogenic NO x emissions. THESSALONIKI  45% of days characterized by stagnant conditions  high insolation  City case description location, urban structure and land-use demography meteo conditions and air pollution input indicators  Main conclusions  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios

7. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Demographic indicators Demographic changes are crucial to determine traffic demand Population size Population size for VISUM and OFIS domains Population size evolution Age structure  City case description location, urban structure and land-use demography meteo conditions and air pollution input indicators  Main conclusions  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios

8. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Economic indicators GDP per capita % of employment in services over total employment  City case description location, urban structure and land-use demography meteo conditions and air pollution input indicators  Main conclusions  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios

9. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Technological indicators passenger car peak occupancy rate % of public transport over total passenger transport  City case description location, urban structure and land-use demography meteo conditions and air pollution input indicators  Main conclusions  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios

10. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Which scenarios? A baseline scenario (specific of each city) Common scenarios of development Which models? VISUM TREM VADIS OFIS MARKAL  City case description  Main conclusions  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

11. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Common scenarios...definition  City case description  Main conclusions  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL Land use Young and virtuous Young and vicious Old and virtuous Old and vicious Demography Economic srtructure Technology € € €

12. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk VISUM transportation model...domain  AREA: 241 km 2  POPULATION: 635 201  N. NODES: 936  N. LINKS: 888 GENOA  AREA: 2793 km 2  POPULATION: 2 682 676  N. NODES: 1124  N. LINKS: 2940 LISBON  AREA: 1447 km 2  POPULATION: 2 611 500  N. NODES: 3144  N. LINKS: 11850 TEL AVIVTHESSALONIKI  AREA: 1100 km 2  POPULATION: 894 435  N. NODES: 1386  N. LINKS: 2034 GENEVA  AREA: 282 km 2  POPULATION: 413 585  N. NODES: 936  N. LINKS: 2900  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL -GENOA -LISBON -GENEVA

13. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk VISUM transportation model...input data Trips by purposes OD matrixes  road category and capacity  maximum velocity allowed +  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

14. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk VISUM transportation model...results  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL Results example: Lisbon public network

15. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Pressure indicator: passenger transport demand (pkm/year) VISUM transportation model...indicators State indicator: time spent in crowding and traffic jams (hours)  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

16. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Ex. Genoa input data from the common scenario implementation VISUM transportation model...methodology A spreadsheet (CommonScenarios.xls) was developed to modify the O/D matrixes according to the scenarios. The obtained results reflect the characteristics of each traffic network. Ex. Lisbon output data from the common scenario spreadsheet  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

17. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk VISUM transportation model...results and analysis CS1 –Young and virtuousCS2 – Young and vicious CS3 – Old and virtuous CS4 – Old and vicious Ex. Lisbon private network  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

18. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk VISUM transportation model...results and analysis  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL Ex. Comparison of scenarios results for private transport in Geneva

19. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk TREM emissions model...domain and input data For every city-case TREM domain coincides with VISUM domain. Main inputs required by TREM:  traffic volume and vehicle speed (provided by VISUM)  distribution of vehicles by categories  distribution of vehicles by classes ex. Gdansk  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

20. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Hourly variation of CO emissions for Lisbon (Prata and Ouro streets) CO emission for Genoa domain TREM emissions model...results  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

21. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk TREM emissions model...indicators  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

22. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk TREM emissions model...scenarios input data Main inputs in TREM scenario application:  technological indicators  new technologies penetration rates  vehicle fleet changes  fuel properties  VISUM outputs  vehicle volume  vehicle speed Ex. Fleet composition for different scenarios  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

23. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk TREM emissions model...results and analysis Ex. Genoa CO emissions CS1 –Young and virtuousCS2 – Young and vicious CS3 – Old and virtuous  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL CS4 – Old and vicious

24. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk TREM emissions model...results and analysis Ex. Thessaloniki results Only CO 2 emissions for Scenario 2 represent values above the reference situation. All other pollutants are expected to decrease primary due to emission reduction technologies and low sulphur levels in gasoline and diesel.  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

25. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL VADIS local scale model...domain

26. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk VADIS local scale model...input data Buildings volumetry Geneva GenoaLisbon Wind velocity and direction for Lisbon simulation Meteorological data Emission data (provided by TREM)  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

27. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Wind and CO dispersion fields for Lisbon for 6p.m. of 8th of July 1997 Wind and CO dispersion simulation for Thessaloniki for 7 a.m. of 9 September 1998 VADIS local scale model...results  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

28. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk VADIS local scale model...results and analysis Ex. Lisbon CO dispersion fields CS1 –Young and virtuousCS2 – Young and vicious CS3 – Old and virtuous CS4 – Old and vicious  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

29. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk VADIS local scale..results and analysis  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL European Legislation CO CO - 10000 µg.m -3 (8-hours average limit value) Ex. Lisbon results

30. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk VADIS local scale model..results and analysis  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL European Legislation NO 2 NO 2 - 200 µg.m -3 (not exceeding more than 18 times in a year) Hourly value for the protection of human health Ex. Lisbon results

31. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk VADIS local scale model..results and analysis  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL European Legislation PM10 PM10 - 50 µg.m -3 (not exceeding more than 35 times in a year) Daily maximum value for the protection of human health Ex. Lisbon results

32. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk OFIS photochemical model...domain  AREA: 150 km x 150 km GDANSK GENEVA GENOA THESSALONIKI TEL AVIV  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

33. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk OFIS photochemical model...input data Main inputs required by OFIS:  emissions: hourly non-urban, suburban and urban emissions rates  meteorological data: daily average wind speed and direction, temperature and temperature lapse rate above the mixing layer  boundary conditions: daily average regional background concentrations (NO, NO 2, O 3 and other species)  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

34. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Number of days with maximum 8 hour running average ozone concentration exceeding 120  g.m -3 (IND120). OFIS photochemical model...results  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

35. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk AOT60 (maximum and average)AOT60 (suburbs and town), OFIS photochemical model...indicators  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

36. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk OFIS photochemical model...results and analysis  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL CS1 –Young and virtuousCS2 –Young and vicious CS3 –Old and virtuousCS4 –Old and vicious GENEVA Ozone AOT60

37. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk OFIS photochemical model...results and analysis Thessaloniki Indicators  Significant differences between scenarios  Scenario 1 presents the highest results  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL Lisbon Indicators  Only Scenario 3 presents different results  Scenario 3 indicators are higher due to lower ozone consumption pollutants

38. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk MARKAL...domain techno-economic energy model  Lisbon municipality  82 km 2 LISBON THESSALONIKI  Thessaloniki municipality + 18 municipalities and 2 communes  1100 km 2  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

39. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk MARKAL...input data techno-economic energy model Main inputs required by MARKAL:  imported energy prices  demand data  residual capacities  techno-economic data  input/output coeficients  pollutants emissions associated with technologies Ex. html file for input data  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

40. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk MARKAL...results techno-economic energy model Lisbon Installed capacity in the private transport sector Lisbon Installed capacity in the public transport sector  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

41. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk MARKAL...methodology techno-economic energy model Lisbon application:  The inclusion of MARKAL in the models cascade is in progress, trying to use VISUM outputs as MARKAL scenarios input.  A simple exercise was carried out, with a new strategy in order to calculate MARKAL inputs for different scenarios Two environmental constraints were considered:  reduction of ozone precursors  reduction of CO 2 emissions in conformity with Kyoto/Marrakech agreements  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

42. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk MARKAL...results and analysis CS1 –Young and virtuous CS2 – Young and vicious CS3 – Old and virtuous CS4 – Old and vicious Lisbon results for private transport  When comparing installed capacity, only for the Scenario 3 this parameter decreases  Clean technologies (fuel cell and hydrogen) are significant only for CS1  Main conclusions  City case description  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Scenarios  VISUM  TREM  VADIS  OFIS  MARKAL

43. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Some final comments  Genoa, Lisbon and Thessaloniki are successful city-cases: the model cascade was applied for the baseline and for the 4 common scenarios  MARKAL was used to generate baseline and also common scenarios allowing to test the technological, economical and energetic approach  The produced indicators allow a easy and practical analysis of the scenario results  The Old and Virtuous City (Scenario 3) seems to be the best choice, but it is linked to a shrinking and getting older citty.  This complex approach was not completely feasible for all the cities, due to several constraints (data availability, model specificity,...)  City case description  Main conclusions  Models cascade application:  Baseline  Common scenarios