1. South America regional climate model simulations and seasonal forecast Julio Pablo Reyes Fernandez Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies CPTEC 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

2. Outline Introduction – Short Review RCM over South America – RCM History at CPTEC Models Experiments and results Summary Future – Where are going 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

3. Introduction Necessity regional climate information (Added value) Regional climate models supply adequate representation of physical process and high spatial resolution The RegCM are based on NWP models with suitably modified radiative transfer and land surface process 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

4. Spatial Scales Variance Global Model Well resolved Insufficiently resolved Added Value Well resolvedInsufficiently resolved Regional Model von Storch, 2004 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

5. Review papers: Giorgi and Mearns (1991), McGregor (1997), Giorgi and Mearns (1999), Giorgi et al. (IPCC 2001), Leung et al. (2003), Wang et al. (2004), Laprise (2006) 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

6. Short Review RCM studies over South America (~15 years) Low to high spatial resolution (100-20km) Months to years (nowdays) Tuning to tropical region (few information) 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

7. South America is a challenge for climate modeling community Large spatial domain, position, particular characteristics 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

8. Fernandez, 2004 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

11. Applications Studies – Climate change – Climate system – Development and validation – Impact – Paleoclimate – Process – Seasonal prediction 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

12. Regional models at CPTEC History – 1994 CPTEC – 1996 operational regional model ETA 40km South america – 1998 ETA extended integrations – 1-month long GCM-driven “Control” experiments Dry and wet season – 2000 ETA seasonal integrations 4.5 months – 2000 at present BRAMS quality air 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

13. – 2003 at present Data Assimilation RPSAS and EKF – 2004 at present Regional climate model development Perfect LBC experiments (NCEP, ECMWF) – 2005 at present experiments of climate conditions different from present Climate change HadRCM, ETA, RegCM3 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

14. Objetives To use regional climate models to assess regional consequences of global climate change is necessary firstly analyzed their present climate simulations. In this talk show some characteristic of model performance, namely, correlation of climatological means and biases to identify systematic model errors and also others experiments at CPTEC. Development and validation, process, climate change and seasonal prediction 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

15. Models CPTEC´s ETA ICTP RegCM3 BRAMS 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

16. ETA model modifications ETA NCEP regional model (Mesinger et al. 1988). To perform climate integration the original code was strongly modified. There were made multiple changes and corrections: (a) developed an interface which allows the ETA model to start from different data and to use them for the time dependent boundary conditions; (b) modified the SST update program to use climatological and operational SST data; 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

17. (a) modified the insolation programs to use the 360 days year HadAM3H data; new solar and long wave radiation scheme; (b) restart code; (c) corrected all shortcomings that don’t permit to run the model for the period more than 3 years The integrations were performed on the supercomputer SX6 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

18. Domain 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

19. Experiments and results 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

20. Simulations of the Summer Circulations Design – RegCM3 and ETACLIM – 10-years integration for Austral summer (January) – 80 km resolution Capabilities 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

21. Fernandez et al., 2006a TAC 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

25. Transferability and subgrid Design – 50 kms over different regions – Reanalysis NCEP/DOE II Temperature and Precipitation skill over different domains Sub-BATS at medium resolution – (50 km  10km) INPE, USP, IGP, INM 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

26. Fernandez, Rocha, Martinez and Silva, 2006 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

28. Fernandez, Rocha, Silva, Martinez, Cirisan 2006 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

30. Impact the new solar radiation scheme Design – 2003 Austral Summer (January) – 40km resolution – Reanalysis NCEP/DOE II – Reynolds and Smith´s SST Impact on surface fluxes, temperature and precipitation Tarasova, Fernandez, Pisnichenko, Marengo, Caballos and Bottino, 2006 JAMC 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

33. The INPE ETA model for Climate Change Simulations (CCS) Design – 40km resolution – Long-term 5-year continuous integration – 1979-1984 Reanalysis NCEP/DOE II Validation and adjust Fernandez, Pisnichenko, Tarasova, 2007 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

34. Forcing and simulations Salathé, Steed, Mass, and Zahn, 2007 JC Pisnichenko, I.A., T.A.Tarasova, J.P.R. Fernandez, and J. Marengo, 2006, 8 th CSHMO 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

38. Fig 4 Simulated rainfall monthly means. 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

39. Fig 5 Simulated air temperature monthly means. 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

41. Comparison 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

42. Rauscher et al. 2007, MWR 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

43. ETACLIM, 1979-1983 NNRP2 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

44. Fig 7 Diurnal cycle (UTC) of rainfall (3 hour period). 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

46. DEEP SOIL TEMPERATURE Impact in our climate simulations 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

47. Climate change experiments Design – 40km resolution – Long-term 2 x 30-year continous integrations – 1960-1990 and 2070-2100 – HadAM3H data Pisnichenko, Tarasova and Fernandez, 2006 Marengo et al. 2007 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

50. Seasonal simulations hindcasts mode Design – 40 km resolution – Ensemble mixed physics – 1979-2002 General Circulation Atmospheric Model CPTEC and reanalysis Improvement seasonal forecast Chou et al. 2005 In progress 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

51. Summary In order to perform long simulations (climate) several refinements are made to the ETA configuration used for weather forecasting over the South America as the climate model The annual cycle of precipitation and temperature is well captured The simulations shows a tendency to underestimate precipitation, mainly in the austral summer and transition seasons (DJF) with exception in winter (JJA) 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

52. Summary - cont The regional seasonal temperature show a positive biases Also the values of ρ between the simulated and observated data are in general high in almost all the regions (Table 1) Analysis of diurnal cycle of precipitation and soil temperatures shows some shortcommings The ETA model provides similar skill than others regional models 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

53. Summary - cont A new solar radiation scheme has been implemented into the Eta Model Nevertheless, a systematic difference remains (10%–20%), probably because of the incorrect description of cloud parameters The original version of the model reproduces a monthly mean precipitation rate closer to the GPCP observational data as compared with the modified 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

54. Summary - cont The transferability experiments show that both models successful simulate the climate variability over different regions The coupling of the physics parameterizations seems to work better in RegCM3 than in ETACLIM for Middle latitude and Caribbean than for the Peruvian Andes and Europe The sub-BATS experiments show small increment of skill over Europe and Caribbean regions, but no over the Andes 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

55. Summary - cont Futher analysis of the difference between simulations and observations will aid in the identification the causes and help to tune the RCMs Further changes in physical parameterizations of the model aimed to obtain better model performance Identify what regions has better model skill and higher climate predictability will be reduce the incertain when used in climate change simulations 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

56. Future Where are going – High resolutions – Longer simulations and ensembles – Development of Earth regional climate system models ocean, hydrology, biosphere, chemistry/aerosol 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

57. Thank you Muito Obrigado Gracias 1 st Ibero-American Workshop on Climate Dynamics, Climate Change and Regional Climate Modeling, SP 20-23 Aug 2007

58. examples Cook, KH; Vizy, EK South American Climate during the Last Glacial Maximum: Delayed Onset of the South American Monsoon. 2005 Grimm,A.; J. Pal, F. Giorgi: Local forcing and Intraseasonal modulation of the South American Summer Monsoon: soil moisture, sea surface temperature, and topography. 2007 Pal, J; Giorgi, F; Bi, X; Elguindi, N; et al. The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET: Regional Climate Modeling for the Developing World. 2007

59. Pal et al., 2007 (BAMS) RegCM3, 50 km, Emmanuel, DJFM 87-00, ERA 40 Topografia Cobertura vegetal

60. Pal et al. 2007, BAMS JFM CRU/CMAP JFM RegCM3

61. Cook&Vizy,2005 Paleoclima LGMPD TOPO & ASST

62. Cook & Vizy, 2005 LGM-PD (precipitação media anual V q

63. Soil moisture * 0.5 in East Brazil (Exp. 7) Control run (2)PrecipitationWind&Temp. 850 hap Grimm et al.,2007 Sensitividade

64. EBU/POM