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Using Entity Resolution to Enhance Criminal Network Disruption by Targeting Appropriate Offenders Dr Rick Adderley A E Solutions (BI) Ltd www.a-esolutions.com.

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Presentation on theme: "Using Entity Resolution to Enhance Criminal Network Disruption by Targeting Appropriate Offenders Dr Rick Adderley A E Solutions (BI) Ltd www.a-esolutions.com."— Presentation transcript:

1 Using Entity Resolution to Enhance Criminal Network Disruption by Targeting Appropriate Offenders Dr Rick Adderley A E Solutions (BI) Ltd www.a-esolutions.com

2 Typical Crime House Burgled Crime Reported Command & Control System Updated Crime Recording System System Updated Forensic Recording System System Updated Officer Attends the Crime Scene CSI Attends the Crime Scene

3 Typical Crime Stop & Search System System Updated Intelligence System System Updated Stop & Search NIM T&C Gathering Intelligence

4 Typical Crime Custody System System Updated Crime Nominals System System Updated Offender Arrested Crime Solved

5 Linking Data Custody System Crime Nominals System Stop & Search System Intelligence System Command & Control Crime Recording System Forensic Recording System Person Reference Number Crime Number

6 Typical Crime URNSurnameForenameDOBAddress TY123456/09SmithBilly12/04/1976123 High Street GH734569/11SmytheBilly12/04/1976123 High Street TY123456/09SmithBilly04/12/1976123 High Street TY123456/09SmithBilly12/04/1976132 High Street ZZ765833/10SmithBilly12/04/1976123 High Street All Names and Data are Synthetic

7 Ref. Nos Entity Resolution Gold Standard Crime Recording System 1002 Crimes for Analysis Crime Nominals System Names Addresses Dates of Birth Offences Crime Info

8 Gold Standard Set IDRef NumSurnameForenameDOB 71765304CCHASSMILKOV25/03/1984 00:00 71765304CCHASSMILKOV25/03/1984 00:00 71765304CCHASSMILKOV25/03/1984 00:00 71765304CCHASSMILKOV25/03/1984 00:00 71765304CCHASSMILKOV25/03/1984 00:00 71765304CCHASSMILKOV25/03/1984 00:00 71765304CCHASSMILKOV25/03/1984 00:00 71765304CCHASSMILKOF25/03/1984 00:00 71765304CCHASSMILKOVR25/03/1984 00:00 71765304CCHASSMILKOV25/03/1984 00:00 7112125304MCHASSMILKOV25/03/1984 00:00 7156334KCHASSMILKOV25/03/1984 00:00 71765304CCHASSMILKOV25/03/1984 00:00 71765304CCHASSMILKOV25/03/1984 00:00 72894921QCHASSMILKOV18/03/1985 00:00 72894921QCHASSMILKOV18/03/1985 00:00 731773119DCHASSMILKOV15/09/1985 00:00 74756422YCHASSMENKOV31/01/1976 00:00 751583173QCHASSMENKOV27/08/1977 00:00 712018476WCHASMENKOV25/03/1984 00:00 712018476WCHASSMENKOV25/03/1984 00:00 761057182LCHASSMENKOV16/04/1985 00:00 761057182LCHASSMENKOV16/04/1985 00:00 761057182LCHASSMENKOV16/04/1985 00:00 762254896JCHASSMENKOFF16/04/1985 00:00

9 Entity Resolution URNSurnameForenameDOBAddress TY123456/09SmithBilly12/04/1976123 High Street GH734569/11SmytheBilly12/04/1976123 High Street TY123456/09SmithBilly04/12/1976123 High Street TY123456/09SmithBilly12/04/1976132 High Street ZZ765833/10SmithBilly12/04/1976123 High Street Crime Nominals System Data Extract List of Fields

10 Entity Resolution

11 Fields Relevance Probability Analysis Compared with Gold Standard

12 Entity Resolution Nominal_RefSurnameForenameDOBEntityIDEntityNameAESResultIDAESType 15923596NTOLZMANNNONA02-Dec-831849170Offender6M 15923596NTOLZMANNNONA02-Dec-832160092Offender6M 15923596NTOLZMANNNONA02-Dec-831823467Offender6M 9899232XXTOLZMANNNONA03-Dec-8366786/05Intel6P 52ATOLZMANNNONA02-Dec-83DE1/8377/05S&S6P 15923596NTOLZMANNNONA02-Dec-8368189/05Intel6M 15923596NTOLZMANNNONA02-Dec-8363845/05Intel6M Different Police Systems

13 Criminal Networks 1 st Degree

14 Criminal Networks 2 nd Degree

15 Criminal Networks 2 nd Degree – Different Target

16

17

18 Actual Results Organised Crime Group

19 Identifying Relevant Criminal Networks

20 Why 2 Degrees of Freedom?

21 Sample Network Who Do We Target ?

22 Identifying Offenders to Target

23 Creating Crime Sets Crime Super Set

24 Normalised Crime Score SurnameForenameDOBOffender Roles Normalised Crime Score ROMINGERPALMIRA28/02/1945 00:00Burglary 11.95 SCHEBELCATHERN16/10/1981 00:00Burglary 12.00 SIBBETTMELITA05/12/1979 00:00Burglary 9.95 CAPASSOBELLA17/12/1980 00:00Burglary 4.07 MOLDREMVERNITA12/08/1982 00:00Burglary 4.41 PINICKTOYA07/05/1985 00:00Violence 4.07 TOLZMANNNONA02/12/1983 00:00Violence 4.16 MEHLINGARIE23/12/1986 00:00Violence 4.16 VALASQUEZCAITLIN10/06/1987 00:00Violence 4.07 ARMELKEMBERLY29/12/1985 00:00Violence 4.07 Frequency of crime > 50% Single Type is main Role

25 SNA Scoring Betweenness – labelled as a gatekeeper / information control Top 10% An information controller Score = 3 11%-20%Some involvement Score = 2 OthersNo involvementScore = 1 Closeness – best access to other parts of the network Top 10%Best accessScore = 3 11%-20%Average accessScore = 2 OthersLimited accessScore = 1 Degree – most active based on the number of links Top 10%ActiveScore = 3 11%-20%Fairly activeScore = 2 OthersNot activeScore = 1

26 Distance to Crime Euclidian Distance Merging that distance in miles with the main offences that the offenders commit and assessing the average and standard deviations for every crime committed by an offender the following labelling was applied: The average distance <= Standard deviation *2 Compact Offending Area Score = 3 The average distance >= Standard deviation *3 Wide Offending Area Score = 2 All others Average Offending Area Score = 1

27 Offenders to Target SurnameForenameRoleNormalised Score Informan t Score Access Score Criminal Activity Score Travel Score Final Score Final Normalised Score SCHEBELCATHERNBurglary12.00332323.001.14 ROMINGERPALMIRABurglary11.95222320.951.00 SIBBETTMELITABurglary9.95121316.950.71 FEDELEMARTINBurglary5.40223315.400.60 DOMENECHINOCENCIABurglary5.08222314.080.51 GILLINGHAMBRINDAViolence4.90222313.900.49 MEMOSDENICEVehCrime4.77222213.770.48 ROSENBALMBRITNIVehCrime4.57222313.570.47 URENMURIELViolence4.45222313.450.46 KRIEGINGRIDVehCrime4.41222113.410.46 WOODLEARNITABurglary4.35222313.350.45 CROSSENBERNADINEBurglary4.34222113.340.45 HOCKENBURYPANDORAVehCrime4.34222313.340.45 DELEEUWSTEPHANIEBurglary4.28222213.280.45

28 Disrupted Network Original Network

29 Questions ? www.a-esolutions.com Dr Rick Adderley rickadderley@a-esolutions.com

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