1. Serving with pride and confidence Knowledge for Change Chief Constable Sara Thornton CBE QPM Cambridge Evidence Based Policing Conference 4-6 July 2011

2. Serving with pride and confidence Leading Change in Policing Conference: 4 - 6 July 2011 2 Introduction

3. Serving with pride and confidence Authorised Professional Practice will: Enable the police service to use resources effectively and efficiently Encourage use of professional discretion Provide a consistent approach for high risk priority areas Significantly reduce amount of national guidance Distinguish between cross-cutting practices and bespoke guidance Support interoperability between forces Provide value for money Reduce unnecessary bureaucracy Improve public confidence

4. Serving with pride and confidence APP Products Revised Statement of Common Purpose and Values Core Practice Cross cutting themes that are common to a wide range of policing activities Specific Practice Areas where additional national standards and/or practice are required for reasons of high risk, interoperability and partnership working Reference Material : All other doctrine will be ‘Reference material’

5. Serving with pride and confidence Core and Specific Practice Core Practice Intelligence Information Investigation Engagement and Communication (including media) Operations (including command and control, briefing and debriefing and review) Prosecution and Case Management Detention and Custody Decision making (including risk management and critical incident management) Tasking and Co-ordination

6. Serving with pride and confidence Specific Practice CBRN Civil contingencies Counter terrorism Covert Domestic extremism e-crime Financial investigation Firearms Forensics Major crime Mobilisation Organised crime Professional standards Protecting vulnerable people Public order Roads policing

7. Serving with pride and confidence Challenges Strategic Policing Requirement Volume Back record conversion Urgent high risk doctrine Timing Integration with national landscape changes NPIA phase out & uncertain future Cultural shift Stakeholder engagement – national and local Holding the line Neighbourhood policing Finance and HR

8. Serving with pride and confidence Governance Partnership : ACPO, NPIA, IPCC, HO, APA, HMIC ACPO Professional Practice Steering Group ACPO Gateway Group

9. Serving with pride and confidence Research on Risk Assessment in Domestic Abuse The study looked at all the cases of serious domestic assault and murder in Thames Valley between 2007 and 2009 to establish how accurate the risk assessments had been in predicting the serious harm. – 118 cases over 3 year period – Comparator sample (Hants) A case control sample was then carried out to try to identify any risk factors that marked out those who committed the most serious violence from other violent offenders

10. Serving with pride and confidence Serious domestic violence offences in Thames Valley 01.01.07 – 31.12.09

11. Serving with pride and confidence Victim gender and outcomes

12. Serving with pride and confidence Prior risk assessment

13. Serving with pride and confidence Accuracy of risk assessment 5 out of 118 serious assaults or murders were of victims who had been assessed as high risk. Therefore 90% false negative rate In the same period 1740 victims were assessed as high risk. Arguably therefore 99% false positive rate

14. Serving with pride and confidence Results: Offenders’ criminal histories Offenders’ criminal histories

15. Serving with pride and confidence Male case control sample drawn from the broader population of those arrested for violence

16. Serving with pride and confidence Male case control sample – PNC risk markers

17. Serving with pride and confidence Female case control sample drawn from the broader population of those arrested for violence

18. Serving with pride and confidence Female case control sample – PNC risk markers

19. Serving with pride and confidence Evidence to practice This is just not the right question – it is about prevention not prediction But are we preventing murder or re-assault? Are we identifying the right cases? A command and control response aimed at finding the perfect solution We think we have the right cases in MARAC - a longitudinal study would provide the evidence needed

20. Serving with pride and confidence Broader issues The relevance of an epidemiological approach? The pursuit of certainty in complex settings Social science knowledge is more contested than scientific knowledge What works is not the only relevant question