1. Dropping Out: Early Projections and Predictions “Building for the Future:” May 7, 2008

5. There are many underlying reasons for dropping out of school ….

6. Often, students send “distress signals” long before they actually drop out Predicting Dropout

7. How can educators “capture the signal” in order to prevent dropout?

8. A good early warning system predicts with: High accuracy – at least 75% of students with a characteristic will drop out High accuracy – at least 75% of students with a characteristic will drop out High yield – these characteristics capture most of the dropouts High yield – these characteristics capture most of the dropouts Easily available and relatively inexpensive Easily available and relatively inexpensive

9. Data scan (8 th grade on) Test scores Test scores Report card grades Report card grades Attendance Attendance Special education and ELL status Special education and ELL status Gender Gender Age Age Race/ethnic background Race/ethnic background

10. 8 th Grade signals Three factors gave students at least a 75% probability of dropping out: Three factors gave students at least a 75% probability of dropping out: 1.Failing math in 8 th grade 2.Failing English in 8 th grade 3.Attending less than 80% of the time

11. 54% of the dropouts sent one or more of these signals Some students were sending these signals as early as 6 th grade

12. The Big Four in 6 th grade Failing Math Failing Math Failing English Failing English Attendance <80% Attendance <80% At least one poor behavior mark At least one poor behavior mark (Balfanz and Herzog)

13. Of every 100 6 th graders with a poor behavior mark…

14. On time in 1 year (7 th grade) 79%

15. On time in 4 years (10 th grade) 34%

16. On-time to graduation 7%

17. 9 th Grade signals Three factors gave students at least a 75% probability of dropping out: Three factors gave students at least a 75% probability of dropping out: 1.Earning fewer than 2 credits 2.Not being promoted to 10 th grade 3.Attending less than 70% of the time

18. 80% of the dropouts sent one or more of these signals in 8 th or 9 th grade

20. Pilot Middle Grades Program

21. A work in progress

22. Conceptual frame Whole school interventions Targeted Interventions Intensive Interventions More labor intensive More specialized More costly

23. Matrix: Interventions by predictors

24. Example: Attendance Whole School Create a culture of “Attending Every Day Matters!” Every absence brings a response Positive social incentives for good attendance Ongoing attendance tracking at teacher team meetings Targeted 2+ unexcused absences/month=Big Deal. Daily check in by an adult. Teacher team invites parent, counselor in to investigate causes. Intensive Daily one-on-one attention and problem solving Social service or community support engaged

25. When do students move to the next tier?

26. Real-time monitoring tool

27. Next steps…. How far back can we take the “signal”? Can we pick up a “signal” in 5 th grade or earlier? How far back can we take the “signal”? Can we pick up a “signal” in 5 th grade or earlier? Are there better ways of predicting dropout among students who get to 10 th grade? Are there better ways of predicting dropout among students who get to 10 th grade? What else can we learn about kids with 8 th and 9 th grade risk factors from survey data? What else can we learn about kids with 8 th and 9 th grade risk factors from survey data?

28. Ruth Curran Neild rneild@csos.jhu.edu