1. 1 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Status Review For NUOPC Executive Steering Group National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC Fred Toepfer & Dave McCarren Kim Curry 6 May 2010 1

2. 2 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Purpose of Briefing Provide NUOPC Status update to Executive Steering Group Decision Requested – –Review and approve Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Charter 2

3. 3 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability AGENDA NUOPC Update –IOC-1 Update –Discuss NUOPC Charter/MOA update –Post-Processing Discussion –Committee Reports Action Item Review ESPC Update and Charter Approval - Curry Principals Discussion 3

4. 4 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC NUOPC Update Summary Revised Committees underway ESMF management agreement ESMF funding in place COPC – NUOPC coordination agreement Regular liaison telecons Briefings to OP center directors Meeting with NSF program managers Annual Status Review Workshop in preparation 4

5. 5 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC Goals and Objectives - 1 Establish a National unified operational atmospheric prediction capability for the United States –Joint operational ensemble of Navy and NOAA operational weather prediction systems (GFS and NOGAPS) –Operational Capability built upon adding NOGAPS to North American Ensemble Forecast System(NAEFS) –Agency post-processing of ensembles to meet agency product requirements (common post- processing if appropriate) 5

6. 6 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC Goals and Objectives - 2 Unified Technology –Common Model Architecture built upon ESMF –Technology component sharing Accelerated forecast performance improvement –More Efficient National R&D Investment –Clearly articulated operational requirements – National Research Agenda for global weather prediction –Community development and involvement 6

7. 7 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC NUOPC Schedule FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II FOC Beta Test Phase III MANAGEMENT SW INTEROPERABILITY INIT.STANDARDS OPERATIONS OUTREACH ENSEMBLE OPS, METRICS, TOOLBOX EXCHANGE NAEFS DATA AND BIASED FIELDS, ARCHIVE, TRAINING COMM, IA, HPC CONOPS, BUDGET DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS FOC IOC-2IOC-1 TRANSITION CONOPS, IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, BUDGET RESEARCH TRANSITION FACILITY (RTF) VISITING SCIENTIST PROGRAM RESEARCH AGENDA DEVELOP FUTURE MODEL ARCHITECTURE FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM TT PM, TEMPS FULL STAFF AND AGENCY PANELS ADOPT INTEROPERABILITY STANDARDS AMS CONFERENCES MODEL RESOLUTION UPGRADE 0.5  0.25  0.1  7

8. 8 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Near Term (FY10-11) Actions - 1 Initial Operational Capability(IOC) on track for Dec 2010 Implementation –Interagency agreement to define participation in joint ensemble –Metrics (TTP Committee) –Center IOC requirements (Agency Liaisons, COPC) 8

9. 9 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Interagency MOA for Joint Ensemble Operations Use current Data Acquisition, Processing, and Exchange (DAPE) MOA –Recommend Annex that deals with joint multi- model ensemble operations –Draft Annex prepared; reviewing with COPC –Addresses only operations portion of managing a multi-model ensemble –Suggest separate annex for joint or common post-processing No rewrite of NUOPC charter recommended at this time 9

10. 10 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Post Processing “Post processing” ill defined –Technical issues: QC of raw model outputs, Bias correction, Sophisticated calibration –Development of standard probability distributions of model parameters, joint probability products, other user products –Operations Concept: Who, What, When, Where, and How Will coordinate and staff a position and incorporate it into a draft annex for ESG approval 10

11. 11 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability IOC-1 Update IOC-1 Rollout - discussed with OFCM IOC-1 Implementation –Plan in place for December 2010 –EMC and FNMOC working together –Briefed at COPC Communications intensive 11

12. 12 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability 12

13. 13 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC Milestones Aug08 Oct08 Dec08 Feb09 Apr09 Jun09 Aug09 Oct09 Dec09 Feb10 Apr10 Jun10 Aug10 Oct10 Dec10 Resolving Communications and Processing Issues 12-Month Study on the Effect of Adding NOGAPS to NAEFS  Results Positive IOC-1 ESG Agreed to Proceed COPC Approved Adding NOGAPS to NAEFS NOGAPS Scheduled to be Added to NAEFS NUOPC Global Managed Ensemble (IOC-1) (NAEFS) Original Revised 13

14. 14 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Planned Upgrades to NAEFS Baseline 2010201120122013 NCEP T126 (100km) to T190(78km)/L28 (Feb) 8-th order diff (Feb) Bias Correction 20 members T190(78km) to T270(50km)/L42 Bias Correction 20 members T270(50 km)/L45 Bias Correction 20 members Coupled ocean T270(50km)/L45 Bias Correction 20 members FNMOC T119 (100km) 16 to 20 members (3Q) Bias Correction TC tracker 252 h to 384 h T119 (100km) to T159(75km)/L42 20 members Bias Correction TC tracker 384 h T159/L42 to T239(50km)/L50 20 members Bias Correction TC tracker 384 h to 720 h T239(50km)/L50 20 members Bias Correction TC tracker 720 h Coupled ocean CMC 100km to 66km(4Q) L58-80 20 members Dynamics upgrade Add satellite data (4Q) 53km(L45) 20 members Upgraded dynamics and satellite data 53km(L45) 20 members Upgraded dynamics and satellite data 53km(L45) 20 members Upgraded dynamics and satellite data Coupled ocean 2014- 44km(L45) Expected/Realized Performance Impact TBD/TBD Resolution doubled TBD/TBD 14

15. 15 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Global Model Comparison GFS Deterministic NOGAPS Deterministic ECMWF Deterministic ECMWF EPS Ensemble Horizontal Grid T382/35 km T574/27 km in May 2010 T239/50 km T319/37 km in 2010 T1279/16 km completed Jan 2010 T639/32 km completed Jan 2010 Vertical Sigma Levels 64429162 Top Level0.27 hPa0.04 hPa0.01 hPa5 hPa Data Assimilation 3D-VAR4D-VAR Ocean Surface7 day SST analysis and sea ice SST and ice cover percentage Coupled atmosphere-ocean- wave model Coupled atmosphere- ocean-wave model Land SurfaceSoil temp and waterSingle layer/bucket model 4 layers in soil to 1.9 m 4 layers in soil to 1.9 m 15

16. 16 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability IOC-1 Benefits 60 member multi-model ensemble based on three state-of-the-science prediction systems –Incorporates strengths of three systems –Demonstrated increased skill over a single ensemble system –Better representation of range and likelihood of events, better capability to capture likelihood of severe or rare events –Allows more coordinated improvement of prediction system – more eyes on problem –Provides estimate of probability or uncertainty for decision support and risk management –Provides more realistic initial and boundary conditions for less deterministic systems such as ocean, wave, hydrology and mesocale ensembles 16

17. 17 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Near-Term (FY10-11) Actions - 2 Stand-up Revised Technology Transfer Committee National Research and Development (R&D) Agenda for forecast ensemble operations –Collecting Tri-Agency operational needs (TTP) –R&D Workshop on Research – »Prioritize Requirements and Needs »Joint with NUOPC Annual Program Review Common Suite of Metrics for Joint ensemble 17

18. 18 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC TTP Committee Chairman: Scott Sandgathe – Activity Update – Discuss: – FY10 Objectives – R&D Agenda Draft – Common Metrics Kim CurryN84 John EylanderAFWA 16 WS/SSP Jack FloydAFWA/A5R John WardNOAA/EMC Jian-Wen BaoNOAA/ESRL Zoltan TothNOAA/ESRL Steve PayneCNMOC Mike ClancyFNMOC Simon ChangNRL MRY Ruth PrellerNRL SSC Ron FerekONR James RigneyNAVO 18

19. 19 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability TTP COMMITTEE Agree to prioritized R&D requirements –Agencies have provided list of operational needs –Draft cross-table of needs complete –Preparing for operators/scientists meeting August to create draft list of R&D requirements –Have met with NSF to discuss way forward Agree to common suite of metrics for measuring ensemble performance –Current agency ensemble metrics reviewed –Proposed common skill metrics in agency channels for review and approval –Will address system and program metrics next 19

20. 20 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC Workshop Goals Develop prioritized R&D agenda –Based on common operational needs –Would release to OAR, ONR, NSF, etc. Review of NUOPC program –Preparation for operational multi-model ensemble –Implementation of common metrics –Implementation of common model architecture Coordination of Tri-Agency development efforts –Planned prediction system upgrades (data assimilation, global, ensemble, post processing, mesoscale, other) –Tri-Agency development efforts underway –Ensemble products Review of outside ensemble research efforts –TIGGE, THORPEX, etc. 20

21. 21 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Common Metrics Technical metrics considerations –Need a controlled comparison (i.e. model vs model) –Must consider data, data QC, data assimilation, model resolution(H/L), ensemble perturbation creation, and post processing –Common verification must agree on: »Common climatology (i.e., for anom. corr., skill scores) »Common analysis and/or common set of observations »Parameters of interest »Common test cases System metrics – NAEFS performance measures Program metrics – NUOPC performance measures 21

22. 22 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Near Term (FY10-110 Actions - 3 Common Model Architecture (CMA) development underway –Content Standards Committee (CSC) integrated into ESMF Management structure to design common implementation –Single Column Model initiative (CMA) –Development plan for the NUOPC Layer within ESMF being worked with operational centers 22

23. 23 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC Layer Development 3 Year Development Planned Statements of Work prepared for ESMF Development for both NOAA and Navy First year funding in place Technical Requirements from Content Standards Committee Single column model will be a prototype for NUOPC layer 23

24. 24 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC CMA/CSC Committee CMA: (Co-chairs) – Bill Lapenta (NOAA/EMC) – David McCarren (NUOPC) CSC: – Tim Campbell (NRL/SSC) – Activity Update – Discuss: – CSC Prioritization – CMA Progress Eric WiseCSCAFWA/A6C Mark IredellCMA/CSCNOAA/EMC Tom HendersonCMA/CSCNOAA/ESRL V. BalajiCMA/CSCNOAA/GFDL Scott SandgatheCSCNUOPC Tim WhitcombCSCNRL MRY Roger StockerCSCFNMOC Chris DeHaanCSCNAVO Max SuarezCMA/CSCNASA/GSFC/GMAO Steve PayneCMACNMOC Thomas BlackCMANOAA/EMC Jim DoyleCMANRL MRY Melinda PengCMANRL MRY Greg JacobsCMANRL SSC Frank GiraldoCMANavy NPS Andrea MaskCMANAVO Mark SwensonCMAFNMOC 24

25. 25 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability CMA COMMITTEE Establish Content Standards Committee as formal ESMF committee –CSC-ESMF agreement in place –CSC proceeding with prioritization of interoperability objectives from CMA Interim Committee Report –CSC will begin tracking implementation of NUOPC standards CMA address common physical architecture –Agreement to proceed on single column model GFS-NEMS, GEOS-5, NOGAPS, COAMPS 25

26. 26 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability FY10 Spend Plan 26

27. 27 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC Action Item Review NUOPC/COPC interaction Joint Ensemble Metrics IOC-1 Implementation/Rollout Interagency Operations Agreement Navy-AF Training CONOPS Budget Update to AF 27

28. 28 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC ESPC Update and Charter 28

29. 29 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability ESPC/NUOPC Intersection NUOPC –Focused on operational global atmosphere at weather time scales –Developing initial Tri-Agency management and collaboration including a common research agenda and a common model architecture –Evolution of existing agency Ensemble Systems ESPC –Focused on the next generation systems –Focused on integrated earth system prediction –Primarily a revolutionary research and development effort –Includes decadal climate prediction 29

30. 30 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability ESPC/NU OPC Intersection Both are a Tri-Agency collaboration on accelerating operational prediction capability Both rely on a common software/systems architecture and common research agenda NUOPC paves the way in collaboration for ESPC ESPC will benefit from NUOPC common software/system standards An ESPC goal will be to provide the next generation system for NUOPC 30

31. 31 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability ESPC Charter Decision Requested: Approve ESPC Charter 31

32. 32 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Backups 32

33. 33 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Deterministic Global Model Comparison GFSCMC GEMNOGAPSECMWF Hydrostatic/ Nonhydrostatic Hydrostatic Spectral Coeff/Grid Spectral CoeffGridSpectral Coeff Vertical Levels 64 sigma58 Eta42 sigma91 sigma Top Level 0.27 hPa10 hPa0.04 hPa0.01 hPa Horizontal Grid T382/35km T574 (27km) (May 2010) Global uniform lat-lon, 0.3 deg lat; 0.45 deg lon; 33km at 49 deg lat T239/50km In FY10: T319/37km T1279/16km (Completed Jan 2010) Data Assimilation 3D-VAR4D-VAR Ocean Surface 7 day SST analysis sea ice SST and Ice cover percentage from MVOI Coupled atmos- ocean, wave model Land Surface Soil temp, waterSingle layer/bucket model4 layers in soil to 1.9m Operational Runs 4 cycles/day (00Z,06Z,12Z,18Z) 2 cycles/day (00Z, 12Z) 4 cycles/day (00Z,06Z,12Z,18Z) 4 cycles/day (00Z,06Z,12Z,18Z) Forecast length 384 h144h(12Z)/240h (00Z) /360h (Sun) 180 h240 h 33

34. 34 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Deterministic Global Model Comparison GFSCMC GEMNOGAPSECMWF Horizontal Diffusion Scale selective, 2d- orderAll levelstemperature Gravity Wave Drag Alpert et al.Orographic gravity wave drag and orographic blocks in lower levels Palmer, Shutts and Swinbank Radiation Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) Solar and infrared radiation interacts with water vapor Long-wave and short-wave (Harshvardham) computed every 2h Solar and infrared radiation interacts with water vapor Initialization Not necessary-spectralDescribed belowMachenhauer initialization Computational Performance 12 min/day9 min/day Time Scheme Leapfrog for nonlinear advection terms; semi-implicit for gravity waves and zonal advection of vorticity and moisture Implicit, 2 time-level, semi-Lagrangian Central time differencing with Robert semi-implicit corrections semi-Lagrangian Time Step 450 s900 s150-180 s 34

35. 35 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Agency Operational Global Model Planned Upgrades - “Deterministic” Model 2010201120122013 NCEP T382 (35km) to T574 (27km) Radiation upgrade Gravity wave drag; Mtn blocking Higher resolution Hurricane relocation TBD FNMOC T239(50km) to T319(37km)/L42 TBD CMC 0.3 deg lat X 0.45 deg lonTBD Expected/Realized Performance Impact TBD 35

36. 36 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Agency Data Assimilation Plans 2010201120122013 NCEP Global Statistical interpolation (3D VAR) Hybrid 4DVAR/ENKF FNMOC 4D VAR; Q1 - Banded Ensemble Transform Initialization CMC 4D VAR Expected/Realized Performance Impact TBD 36

37. 37 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Multi-Model vs. Single Model Ensembles Research has shown that combining forecasts from several models increases forecast skill –Impact of individual model error is reduced –Provides better information on forecast uncertainty Key conclusions from recent ECMWF study: –Multi-model ensembles are more skillful than single model ensembles –The benefit is not just from having a larger total number of ensemble members –Adding a model with less-than-average skill to a multi-model combination usually increases forecast proficiency http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/118.pdf http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/118.pdf Additional confirmation from recent NAEFS study: –Forecast improvements are gained not only due to the increased number of members in an ensemble, but also to the different combinations of models used http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get- abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2008MWR2682.1http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get- abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2008MWR2682.1 37

38. 38 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC Long Range Goals Implementing a global atmospheric ensemble system designed to enhance predictive capability Shared development among government agencies Clearly articulating operational requirements and a corresponding National research agenda, with initial emphasis on hurricane track/intensity forecasts, joint wind and seas forecasts, and ceiling/visibility forecasts Accelerating the transition of new technology to the Tri-Agency operating centers Implementing ways to promote broad community participation in addressing the National research needs. 38

39. 39 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability FY ‘10 Costs Summary NUOPC Architecture and Infrastructure: –$780 K to ESMF to begin NUOPC Layer –$260 K for model interoperability Joint Development and Operations: –$520 for NAEFS IOC –$100 K Comms upgrades Research to Operations –$200 K to develop common metrics and R&D agenda –$183 K for NUOPC committee support Management and Overhead –$1,140 K for parts of 7 support staff Total $3,183 K 39