1. DRR Programme Strategy and Implementation Framework
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO
DRR Programme Strategy and Implementation Framework
With linkages to climate change adaptation By
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, WMO
1st Meeting of the Task Team on “Meteorological Services
for Improved Humanitarian Planning and Response
31 August – 2 September 2010

2. About WMO

3. World Meteorological Organization
Specialized Scientific and Technical Agency of the UN
Non-resident agency
189 Members
Governing bodies: Congress and Executive Council
WMO Secretariat based in Geneva
Works with research community, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, Space Agencies of its Members

4. WMO Governance and Institutional Structure
10 Technical
Programmes
WMO Secretariat (Geneva)
Global/ Regional
World Weather Watch (WWW),
World Climate Programme (WCP)
Atmospheric Research & Environment Prog (AREP)
Applications of Meteorology Prog (AMP)
Hydrology & Water Resources Prog (HWRP)
Education & Training Programme (ETR)
Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP)
Regional Programme (RP)P
WMO Space Programme (SAT)
Disaster Risk Reduction Programme (DRR)
3 World Meteorological
Centres (WMC)
6 Regional Association (platform for consultations and consensus)
189 Members
‘National
Meteorological
and Hydrological
Services (NMHSs)
Global Climate Centers &
Regional Climate Centers
8 Technical
Commissions
CBS
CHy
CCl
CAS
CIMO CAeM CAgM JCOMM
40 Regional Specialised
Meteorological Centres (RSMC)
30 Regional Training Centres (RMTC)

5. Natoinal Operational forecasting systems
WMO Coordinates International Research Programmes in Weather and Climate
World Climate Research Programme (with UNESCO/OIC, ICSU), World Weather Research Programme
Natoinal Operational forecasting systems
Northern Atlantic Oscillation
Pacific
Decadal
Oscillation
UNFCCC
negotiations
IPCC Assessments 5

6. WMO Leverages International and Regional Cooperation: Coordinates Operation Meteorological Network to support National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
189 Members

7. Presentations WIGOS/WIS (D. Thomas, M. Berechree)
RSMCs, RCCs and Drought Monitoring Centres
(P. Chen, K., Kolli, L. Malone, R. Stefansky)
Global Framework for Climate Services
(L. Malone)
WMO Service Delivery Framework
(H. kootval, W. Grabs, P. Chen, L. Malone, M. Golnaraghi)
Regional Training Centres (J. Willson)
Role of Technical Commissions
(G. Fleming, A. Pietroniro, G. Van Langenhove, S. Mason, R. Martinez)

8. Example of how the Operational WMO Network Supports National Early Warning Systems Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme
Since a devastating cyclone in 1991 killed an estimated 139,000 people throughout Bangladesh, the coastline has been studded with concrete shelters raised on 12-foot pillars to allow tidal surges to flow beneath. The government also honed its early warning systems and set up a volunteer network to assist with evacuations.
Year Death toll Name Area
West Sundarbans
Megna Eestuary
Chittagong, Noakhali
Barisal district
Bhola Khulna, Chittagong
Urir, Jabbar, Bata, Darbesh, Clark, Sudharam, Hatia, Sand Wip Islands + Patuakhali, Bhola, North Chittagong, Feni, Noakhali districts
Gorky Cox's Bazar, Chittagong, Patuakhali, Noakhali, Bhola, Barguna 8

9. The Climate Information Challenge to Support Climate Adaptation – What is WMO doing?
Montreal
Exeter
ECMWF
Moscow
Seoul
Beijing
Toulouse
Tokyo
Washington
Lead Centre for LRFMME
Pretoria
Melbourne
Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs)
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
RCC Network Nodes (Pilot)
Lead Centre for SVSLRF
SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts
LRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
Background on the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) (L. Malone)
CLW/CLPA/WCAS

10. Simplified Schematic of Linkages
Climate Adaptation
Multi-sectoral planning and risk management
Climate Mitigation
Emission reduction
Incremental cumulative risk
Disaster Risk Management
Meteorological, Hydrological and climate extremes
Geological

11. WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to … Leverage WMO research and Operational Capacities to Address Information Challenge in DRM at all levels

12. Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)
Number of
events
Loss of life
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
Between 1980 and 2007, nearly 8500 natural disasters worldwide have taken the lives of nearly 2 million people and produced economic losses over 1.2 trillion US dollars. Recent statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters reveal that, of this total, some 90 per cent of the natural disasters, 70 per cent of casualties and 75 per cent of economic losses were caused by weather-, climate- or water-related hazards such as droughts, floods, windstorms, tropical cyclones and storm surges, extreme temperatures, land slides, wild fires or by health epidemics and insect infestations directly linked to the meteorological and hydrological conditions.
Economic
losses
90% of events
70% of casualties
75% of economic losses
are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. 12

13. Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards ( )
Number of events
Loss of life
Economic Losses
Important effect of the 2005 Tsunami in geophysical loss of life in Asia and Pacific region, ( ) as well as the Earthquake in Pakistan in 2005 (73 000)
Of the Economic losses in Asia due to Geophisical hazards, Earthquakes in Japan account for two thirds
Hydrometeorological: Drought, Extreme temperature, Flood, Slides, Wild fires, Windstorm, Epidemic, Insects
Geological: Earthquakes, Volcano, Tsunami
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc 13

14. Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes are on the Rise !
Disasters impacts many sectors!
Hazard, vulnerability and
exposure on the rise !
Energy
Aral Sea
Transportation
Water Resource
Management
Intensity
Strong Wind
People
Agriculture
Urban areas
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Caucasus: floods, droughts and landslides
Central Asia: floods, droughts, avalanches and landslides
10 % of the total population of Central Asia has been affected by disasters in the last 10 years, 2500 died
Sand and dust storm
Hot spots: Tadjikistan and Fergana Valley
Projected Impact of Climate change (IPCC)
Caucasus:
increase in temperature, increase of heatwaves, precipitation intensity, and precipitation per extreme events will increase, runoff will decraese
Decrease in reservoir water levels itensifying landslides, increase of droughts and precipitations
Black Sea level to rise
Increase snow melt causing flask floods
Central Asia
Glacier melting
Decrease in mean annual precipitation, increase in the frequency of very dry spring, summer and automn seasons
Crop yield could decrease up to 30 %
Changes in runoff could have significant effect on powe output of hydropower generating countries
Increase in temnperature will increase the probability of avalanches and mudflows
Main economic sectors linked to HydoMet and climate
Hydropower and dam management
Georgia 70 % HydroPower dependant
Kazakhstan possesses 5 operational hydroelectric plants which provide roughly 12% of the electricity generation.
Tajikistan and Kirghizstan (90 % of hydroelec)
Agriculture
Agriculture (20-30 % of GDP in all countries except Kazakhstan)
Importance of irrigation for cotton production, large irrigation infrastructure
Water
Kirghistan and Tadjikistan generate 70 % of the water of the whole Central Asia
Kazahkstan, Ouzbekistan and Turkmenistan have large irrigated areas depending on these water resources
Transportation
Landlocked countries
Drought
Need for
Multi-sectoral risk management
Heatwaves
Frequency

15. Paradigm shift from post disaster response to Disaster Prevention and Preparedness
In most countries disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response (humanitarian issue!)
In countries adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action in (Kobe, Japan)
New paradigm in disaster risk management focused on reducing risks through prevention and mitigation (Development issues)
International community is working to assist countries in implementing the HFA
Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM provides a wide range of opportunities for meteorological, hydrological and climate services!

16. Development of WMO DRR Strategic priorities approved by CG XIV
Hyogo Framework for Action
(World Conference on Disaster Reduction)
WMO
Strategic Plan
(Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts)
Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partners
WMO’s strategic goals in Disaster Risk Reduction are derived from Hyogo Framework for Action, pertaining to those high priority areas that fall under the mandate of WMO and NMHSs.
WMO strategic priorities
in Disaster Risk Reduction 16

17. WMO DRR Programme Framework Derived from HFA (2005-2015)
Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency) 1
Risk Assessment
Risk Reduction
Risk Transfer
Historical Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting and forward looking hazard trend analysis
Exposed assets & vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
Preparedness (saving lives): early warning systems emergency planning and response
Prevention (Reduction of economic losses): Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) 2
CATastrophe insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives 5 3
Disaster risk management strategies, as detailed in the HFA, can be framed under three main areas: Risk Identification, Risk Reduction and Risk Transfer. HFA stresses that successful disaster risk management should be supported by effective governance, legislation, legal frameworks and institutional capacities at national to local levels supplemented by effective information and knowledge sharing mechanisms among different stakeholders. 4
Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training across agencies 6 17

18. WMO Strategic priorities and Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction Approved by WMO Congress - XV
To implement WMO DRR priorities through regional and national projects, with following end results:
Modernized NMHSs and observing networks.
Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems.
Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities to support risk reduction and risk transfer.
Strengthened NMHSs cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and other disaster risk management stakeholders.
Trained management and staff of NMHS
Enhanced ministerial and public awareness
On the basis of a consultative process approved by EC Member and regional requirements and priorities have been identified systematically in disaster risk reduction and used to develop a DPM Action plan is being developed based on synergistic activities of WMO Programmes, Commissions, Members and Partners . This Action plan is being implemented through regionla and national projects with the following end results,

19. Understanding the Risks Provides Evidence for Preventing Disaster Risks!
Hazard
Analysis and
Mapping
Exposure
and
Vulnerability
Potential
Loss
Estimates
This information is critical for decision-making and development of strategies to reduce the risks
Number of lives at risk
$ at risk
Destruction of buildings and infrastructure
Reduction in crop yields
Business interruption
Impacts:
population density
agricultural land
urban grid
Infrastructure
Businesses
Heavy Precipitation
and flood mapping
Need for historical and real time data
Statistical analysis tools climate forecasts and trend analysis
Need for Socio-economic impacts data and analysis tools
Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard, asset and exposure information

20. Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies
National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms 1 2
Early warning systems involve four elements, which need to be supported by governance, coordination and collaboration mechanisms from national to local levels, and by appropriate infrastructure. These four elements include:
Observing, detecting and developing hazard forecasts and warnings;
Assessing the potential risks and integrating risk information in the warning messages;
Distributing, rapidly and reliably, understandable warnings to authorities, risk managers and the population at risk;
Emergency preparedness and response to warnings at all relevant levels to minimize the potential impacts. 3 4

21. There is need for investments in all Components of Early Warning Systems !1
National
Government
DRR coordination mechanisms
Local
Government responsible for emergency preparedness and response
Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination 4
warnings
warnings 4
feedback
feedback 3 5 5
Community Prepared
Capacity Development and Coordinated National
Technical Agencies 2 4
Effective early warning systems require:
Strong support from the government and alignment of policies, planmning, legislation, resources across different levels of the government
Coordination among national technical services for monitoring, detecting, forecasting and development and issuance of issuance of authoritative warnings that take vulenrabilities and exposure of elements into account
Authoritative and reliable dissemination channel to authorities at national to lovcal level and public
Community emergency preparedness measures and ability to activate
Feedback mechanism
Early Warning Systems need to be designed with a multi-hazard approach to ensure:
Leveraging Resources and Capacities
Cost-effectiveness
Inter-operability
Maintenance and sustainability
Meteorological
Hydrological
Geological
Marine
Health, Agricuture (etc.)
warnings
feedback 5 21

22. Example: Documentation of Good Practices and develop Guidelines for Institutional Partnerships in Early Warning Systems
Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard Approach
Planning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles of NMHS
Synthesis of First set of 7 Good Practices (4 more in the pipeline) Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services
Japan
Multi-Hazard Early Warning System
Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme
Cuba
Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System
France “Vigilance System”
Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency Preparedness Programme
USA
Multi-Hazard Early Warning System
Germany
The Warning Management of the Deutscher Wetterdienst
First EWS Publication of a series being published in 2010 and together with a technical WMO guidelines.
Next Phase: Concept of Operations and Service Delivery Issues

23. …. to support sectoral risk assessment and management!
Climate forecasting and trend analysis tools provide unprecedented opportunities
…. to support sectoral risk assessment and management!
Infrastructure and Urban planning
Land zoning
Insurance / Finance
Agricultural productivity and food security
Tourism
Health epidemics
Water resource management

24. Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms
Which Risks?
What type of Financial tools?
Who Could Benefit?
Requirements for Hydro-Met Services?
Financial risks
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives
Regional Catastrophe Insurance Facilities
Other emerging products
Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these markets!)
Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts
Decadal climate trend analysis
Long term trend analysis (long-term market strategy)
Government
Companies
Individuals
Other
WMO Workshop: 24

25. Systematically linking know-how, capacity development to national and regional projects
Monitoring and Evaluation
Training, Institutional Capacities Building, sharing good practices and lessons learnt linked to projects
National and Regional Projects
Implementation of end-to-end projects,
Identification and Documentation of Good Practices and learning Lessons
Development of Guidelines based on Lessons Learnt

26. Climate Change scenarios – IPCC Process
Example of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services in Risk Reduction (Many other examples exist)
DECISION MAKERS
Emergency Services
Government Authorities
Insurance
Public, Media
Local – National Government
Insurance
Suppliers
Public, Media
Urban planners
Local to national Governments
Banks
Insurance
Negotiators
Parlimentarian
Local/nationalgovernments
Private sector
Urban & coastal Emergency Preparedness
Inventory: Food, Construction Materials, Shelter, Emergency funds
Strategic Planning
Building codes
Infrastructure & Urban Development and Retrofitting
Land Zoning and Planning
International negotiations and agreements
National policies and legilation
DECISIONS
Emergency planning activation and response
Evacuations, inventory, preparing houses
SERVICES
Future Decadal trend analysis: of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones
Climate Change scenarios – IPCC Process
Short to medterm weather forecasts: Tropical cyclone Forecasts and warnings
Probabilistic seasonal forecasts: Probabilities of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones
Next hour to 10 days
Decade
Season to year
Long term Scenarios

27. DRR Programme Implementation Strategy

28. WMO DRR Implementation Strategy: Development of regional and sub-regional strategies:
Challenges of NMHS (providers of Services) to meet DRM demands?
WMO DRR Survey 2006
Other WMO national assessments carried out since 2006-present
Institutional Capacities and Receptivity of DRM Stakeholders (Users of Services ) to NMHS
Surveys conducted by UN-ISDR, UNDP, the World Bank, regional partners and others (2006 – forward)
Challenges for engaging NMHS with the DRM stakeholders (Institutionally and Operationally)?

29. Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)
Country Responses
44/48
92 %
18/22
82 %
25/34
74 %
10/12
83 %
14/19
74 %
24/52
54 %
74% + response rate 29

30. Major challenges for NMHS to be addressed Systematically through DRR Implementation Strategy: Another view
Under estimated
Category
Planning & Legislation
Infrastructure:
Observation
Forecasting
Telecom.
Data, Analysis and Technical
Capacities
Partnerships
&
Concept of Operations
% countries 1
Need for development in all areas 12 2
Need for improvements in all areas 42 3
Self sufficient
Need for improvements in these areas 26 4
Could benefit from sharing of good practices practices and guidelines 20
Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM! 30

31. 65% NMHS need strengthening or full modernization of infrastructure
Major challenges for NMHS to be addressed Systematically through DRR Implementation Strategy: another view
70% of countries need amendments or restructuring of their national policies and legislation
Reflection of the role of NMHS in policies, legislation, plans
65% NMHS need strengthening or full modernization of infrastructure
Observations, forecasting systems, communication, data management, etc
80% NMHS need technical and management training :
Hazard data bases, mapping and analysis and (meteorological, hydrological and climate) forecasting tools,
80% of NMHS need strengthening or building multi-sectoral institutional partnerships, coordination and service delivery
e.g., emergency services, infrastructure and planning, etc)

32. Project Identification Reporting & Evaluation
Long-term strategy with phased project implementation approach
Project Identification
Planning
Expansion
Each cycle 1 – 2 years
Implementation
Sustainability
Reporting & Evaluation

33. Criteria for DRR Project Development
(1) Alignment with WMO disaster risk reduction strategic goals
Built on priorities, requirements and needs of Members at regional, sub-regional, or country-grouping levels
Projects have national development complemented with regional cooperation
(4) Involve integrated planning, budgeting, implementation (leveraging WMO and external partners’ expertise and resources)
(5) Result-based approach (Outcomes, deliverables, timelines)
(6) Must be scalable and ensure sustainability of capacities overtime
(7) Ensure end-to-end solutions to the Members leading to better decision-making capacities
(8) Well defined resource mobilization strategy for implementation

34. Building Close Relationship and Track Record with Implementing Partners and Strategic Donors…
Identifying strategic partners and building long-term relationship:
Identification and understanding of the priorities of strategic partners
Their engagement in the project development from the early stages
Fund raising strategy
Fund-raising opportunities for strengthening of the NMHS through the post disaster humanitarian and development mechanisms
Flash Appeal (was used for upgrade of GTS in Indian Ocean, now for Haiti)
Post Disaster Needs Assessment and Country reconstruction plan (first time for Haiti)
Long-term coordination with donors
Bilateral
Multilateral
Development Banks, etc..

35. Engage in regional cooperation projects with strategic partners that influence National/Regional DRR Programmes, Capacities and Funding
Partners
Agency Type
Coordination
National DRR Implementation
Funding
World Bank
(GFDRR)
Development X
ISDR
UNDP
WFP, FAO
Agriculture
UN-OCHA, IFRC, UNICEF, UNOSAT, UNHCR, WFP, UNDP, WHO
Humanitarian
Donors (EC, bi-laterals)
Donor
Regional Centers and agencies 35

36. Two Types of National/Regional DRR Projects initiated (2007 – Present)
(Potential Pilots)
Type I: Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO
Central Asia and Caucasus (2009 – ongoing)
Special project: WMO Shanghai MH-EWS Demo
South East Europe (2007- present)
South East Asia (early 2010 – ongoing)
Central America and Caribbean
(2010- )
SADC (2011 -)
Type II: Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects in end-to-end Multi-Hazard EWS

37. Thank You http://www.wmo.int/disasters
For more information please contact:
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
World Meteorological Organization
Tel
Fax .