1. Clara Deser, NCAR Symposium in Honor of Maurice Blackmon

2. Clara Deser, NCAR Symposium in Honor of Maurice Blackmon Mentor Extraordinaire CDC Postdoc 1990-1991 Res. Sci. 1992-1996 NCAR Scientist 1997-

4. Clara DeserMarika HollandBette Otto-Bliesner CGD Women Scientists Hired by Maurice Blackmon

5. Blackmon and Bjerknes: Air-Sea Interaction in the North Atlantic Clara Deser, NCAR

6. Blackmon J.Bjerknes Synoptic Meteorology ENSO North Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction

7. Year-to-year variability Multi-decadal trends: Ocean forcing atmosphere? Composite SLP, SST High (1904, 1913, 1920) minus Low (1902, 1909, 1915) 1920-1924 minus 1894-1898 “Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction” Jacob Bjerknes, 1964, Adv. in Geophysics 82 pp

8. Year-to-year variability: Multi-decadal trends: Ocean forcing atmosphere? Composite SLP, SST High (1904, 1913, 1920) minus Low (1902, 1909, 1915) 1920-1924 minus 1894-1898 W C H L “Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction” Jacob Bjerknes, 1964, Adv. in Geophysics 82 pp

9. Year-to-year variability: Atmosphere forcing ocean Multi-decadal trends: Ocean forcing atmosphere? Composite SLP, SST High (1904, 1913, 1920) minus Low (1902, 1909, 1915) 1920-1924 minus 1894-1898 W C H L “Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction” Jacob Bjerknes, 1964, Adv. in Geophysics 82 pp

10. Year-to-year variability: Atmosphere forcing ocean Multi-decadal trends: Ocean forcing atmosphere? Composite SLP, SST High (1904, 1913, 1920) minus Low (1902, 1909, 1915) 1920-1924 minus 1894-1898 W C H L H L C W “Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction” Jacob Bjerknes, 1964, Adv. in Geophysics 82 pp

11. Year-to-year variability: Atmosphere forcing ocean Multi-decadal trends: Ocean forcing atmosphere? Composite SLP, SST High (1904, 1913, 1920) minus Low (1902, 1909, 1915) 1920-1924 minus 1894-1898 W C H L H L C W

12. Gulf Stream “Warming” (Bjerknes, 1964) +3 °C 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930

13. Year-to-year variability: Atmosphere forcing ocean Multi-decadal trends: Ocean forcing atmosphere? Composite SLP, SST High (1904, 1913, 1920) minus Low (1902, 1909, 1915) 1920-1924 minus 1894-1898 W C H L H L C W “Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction” Jacob Bjerknes, 1964, Adv. in Geophysics 82 pp

14. North Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction Revisited “Surface Climate Variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during Winter: 1900-1989” Deser and Blackmon (J. Climate 1993) “Interdecadal Variations in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Associated Atmospheric Conditions” Kushnir (J. Climate 1994) Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) NOAA OGP “Atlantic Climate Change Program”

15. Percent of months with data 1901-1920 1881-19001941-1960 1961-1980 1861-18801921-1940 COADS Data Coverage

16. Warm minus Cold Years 50-60N Year-to-year variability: Atmosphere forcing ocean W C H L H L C W Kushnir 1994 W W C H L

17. 1950-1964 minus 1970-1984 Multi-decadal trends: Ocean forcing atmosphere? W L

18. Deser and Blackmon (1993) Objective Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Variability 1960 1970 1980 1990 Sea Ice SST EOF 2 (1900-1989) + -

19. Deser and Blackmon (1993) Objective Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Variability 1960 1970 1980 1990 Sea Ice SST EOF 2 (1900-1989) C W Associated Surface Winds + -

20. Deser and Blackmon (1993) Objective Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Variability 1960 1970 1980 1990 Sea Ice SST EOF 2 (1900-1989) C W Associated Surface Winds SST, Air T + -

21. Deser and Blackmon (1993) Objective Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Variability 1960 1970 1980 1990 Sea Ice SST EOF 2 (1900-1989) C W Associated Surface Winds ICE SST, Air T ICE SST 1960 1970 1980 1990 + -

22. Atmospheric Response to North Atlantic Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Recent Work

23. Atmospheric Response to North Atlantic Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Recent Work Shiling Peng with Ting, Whittaker, Hoerling, Alexander, Li NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center “The Transient Atmospheric Circulation Response to North Atlantic SST and Sea Ice Anomalies” (Deser, Tomas and Peng: J. Climate 2007)

24. Transient Atmospheric Response Imposed SST Anomaly Dec 1 Apr 30 SST climatology + anomaly SST climatology Initial Condition 1 Initial Condition 240 SST climatology SST climatology + anomaly Atmospheric GCM Experiments (NCAR CCM3) +6 °C

25. Geopotential Height Response Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Positive Negative Contour interval = 10 m shading: 95% significance

26. Weekly Response 1-5 6-10 11-15

27. Weekly Response 1-5 6-10 11-15 Baroclinic  Barotropic Amplification Local  Hemispheric

28. Spatial Correlations Between 1000mb and 300mb Geopotential Height Responses Transition at 4 weeks Baroclinc Barotropic

29. Geopotential Height Response Intrinsic Variability

30. Geopotential Height Response Forced by Diabatic Heating Transient eddy vorticity flux convergence

31. + SST - SST Equilibrium Geopotential Height Response + SST

32. Clara Deser, NCAR Symposium in Honor of Maurice Blackmon