1. Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com

2. Climate Affairs: “Usable Science” for Society? Michael H. Glantz ccb.colorado.edu www.fragilecologies.com Consortium for Capacity Building INSTAAR, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Colorado 15 January 2009

3. The Climate century ?

4. All eyes are on the atmosphere

5. Aspects of Climate (what is missing in the graphic?) Climate variability Climate fluctuations Climate change “Deep” climate change Extreme events Seasonality

6. Perceptions of Climate Climate as a resource Climate as a hazard Climate as a constraint E very society climate has a mix of all three, but the proportions vary from one country to the next and one decade to the next.

7. …as a hazard This is the way that we tend to view climate Its anomalies can often lead to death and destruction There is also a misery factor (lost photos, having to live in a gym for weeks, loss of pets, heirloom losses, etc Governments most concerned about climate as a hazard. Governments have responsibility for early warnings.

8. … as a resource Adequate and reliable precipitation, temperature, seasonality It provides for adequate food production and water resources in a region Experience from similar ecosystems Reliable forecasts on all time scales The careful use of climate information can make a hostile climate less so

9. … as a boundary constraint In the early 1900s climate was viewed as a constraint Personally Nationally Hot and tropical climates, it was argued, made the people lazy and unproductive in a workplace, whereas seasonal climates of the Northern Hemisphere were invigorating to people and nations This view was challenged as racist but was more or less in place until the mid 1970s!! Global warming will change present constraints while creating new ones

10. http://video.aol.com/vid eo-detail/chris-farley-el- nino/1340308260 El Ni ñ o Process

11. El Niño as a Hazard-Spawner El Niño is a hazard-spawner – It is associated with droughts, floods, fires, and disease outbreaks worldwide La Niña is also a spawner of natural hazards

12. El Niño comes of age (October 1997)

13. Fostering Climate Affairs (why now?) Climate issues: – Increasingly important to governments, corporations, foundations and the public, Perceptions: – Climate anomalies are becoming more frequent, more costly and more deadly Global warming: – Looming in the 21 st century

14. The “Affairs” template Affairs: business, matters, activities Business affairs, international affairs, rural affairs, veteran affairs, etc. Here, I use the “Affairs” concept as a multidisciplinary catch-all phrase, a check list of sorts The central aspects include: Science, impacts on ecosystems, impacts on societies, politics, policy & law, economics, ethics & equity Water affairs, desert affairs, coastal urban affairs, etc.

15. Global warming and extreme weather

16. Climate-sensitive sectors Food production Crops Fish Livestock Water resources Quantity Quality Energy Public health & safety Economy Environment Other

17. Daily burden to fetch water and firewood Africa –water gatherers India – firewood gatherers

18. What citizens should know Climate science Society’s impacts on climate Climate impacts On ecosystems On societies Climate policy & law Climate politics Climate economics Climate ethics & equity

19. US Global Change Research Program, 2000 How scientists see the climate system

20. Climate Science Understand the climate system Understand its components IIASA Society is a component

21. Time Series for El Niño (red) and La Niña (blue) Before 1976 more blue than red; after 1976 more red than blue. Red : El Nino Blue: La Nina

22. Media Headlines Worldwide: El Niño 1997-98

23. Climate Impacts On land and sea On societies Rich and Poor Developed and Developing North & South Human impacts on the atmosphere Heat island effect Greenhouse gas emissions Methods to separate natural from societal impacts

24. Extremes occur often on globe in any given year Climate change More extremes, more frequency, more intensity, new locations

25. Hurricane Katrina (August 29, 2005)

27. Venezuelan Mud slides December 1999