1. 1 2008 AYP Federal Cap Process Performance Reporting Division Texas Education Agency May 23, 2008

2. 2 2008 AYP Federal Cap Process Todays Agenda Overview of 2008 AYP Process Review: TEASE Accountability Application 2008 Campus Priority List for 2% Federal Cap Review: TEA process for 2008 AYP How the Federal Cap Works

3. 3 2008 AYP Federal Cap Process Important Information Please review the April 24, 2008 TETN Accountability session for additional information on the following topics: Update on 2008 Texas AYP Workbook 2008 AYP Timeline 2008 AYP Federal Cap Decision The presentation is available at http://www.tea.state.tx.us/ayp/2008/04242008.ppt. http://www.tea.state.tx.us/ayp/2008/04242008.ppt

4. 4 Overview of 2008 AYP Process

5. 5 What is the Federal Cap? Federal regulations require limits on the number of proficient results that can be included in the 2008 AYP performance calculations. The federal 1% and 2% caps only applies to the number of proficient results that can be counted in the AYP performance calculations. The federal cap does not affect the AYP participation calculations. Federal regulations do not limit the number of students that may be tested on either the TAKS-Alt or TAKS-M.

6. 6 What is the 2008 Federal Cap Process for Texas? For districts that exceed the 1% cap on the TAKS-Alt proficient results, the federal cap limit will be determined by random selection of the proficient students on the TAKS-Alt. For districts that exceed the 2% cap on the TAKS-M proficient results, the federal cap limit will select the proficient students on the TAKS-M in order to maximize the number of campuses meeting AYP in the district.

7. 7 Why was the 1% Federal Cap Process Chosen? The random selection of proficient students on TAKS- Alt will provide an impartial selection of proficient results for the students with disabilities that meet the TAKS-Alt participation criteria.

8. 8 Why was the 2% Federal Cap Process Chosen? The 2008 federal cap process will select the proficient students on TAKS-M to maximize the total number of campuses that meet AYP if a district exceeds the 2% federal cap on TAKS-M.

9. 9 Why was the 2% Federal Cap Process Chosen? If a district exceeds the federal 2% cap by one student, should the one proficient student that must be counted as non-proficient be selected from: Campus Y that would Meet AYP even if one of its proficient TAKS-M students was counted as non- proficient OR Campus Z that would Miss AYP if one proficient TAKS-M student was counted as non-proficient?

10. 10 Why was the 2% Federal Cap Process Chosen? In this basic example, the 2% federal campus process will select one proficient TAKS-M student from Campus Y to be counted as non-proficient, so that both Campus Y and Z meet AYP.

11. 11 Why is a Campus Priority Order Necessary? The federal cap process conducted by TEA will select the proficient students tested on TAKS-M in campus priority order only to the extent needed for the campus to meet AYP. The federal cap process, therefore, requires that districts provide a campus priority or ranking list that will direct the selection of the proficient students, if applicable.

12. 12 Why is a Campus Priority Order Necessary? In the prior example, what if there are two campuses that would Miss AYP if one proficient TAKS-M student was counted as non-proficient for that campus? The campus priority list provided by the district will determine which campus has the higher priority to be assigned sufficient proficient students that will allow the campus to Meet AYP.

13. 13 Who is affected the 2008 Federal Cap Process? The federal cap process only applies to districts that exceed the 1% cap on TAKS-Alt proficient results or the 2% cap on TAKS-M proficient results. Texas school districts with proficient results from TAKS- Alt and TAKS-M that do not exceed the district limit are not affected by the cap and all student proficient results remain proficient. It is possible for the district to exceed the federal cap limits on both assessments and still Meet AYP if overall student performance on the TAKS and TAKS (Accommodated) assessments is sufficiently higher than the AYP target (60% for reading/ELA and 50% for mathematics in 2008).

14. 14 When is the 2008 Federal Cap Process applied? In order to include the TAKS-M results in the 2008 AYP calculations, Texas has received final approval from the USDE to release the 2008 AYP results on October 8, 2008. The federal cap process on the TAKS-Alt and TAKS-M proficient results will be conducted by TEA prior to the October 8 release. The 2% federal cap process will be based on the campus priority list provided to TEA by districts by July 10, 2008.

15. 15 What are the Challenges of the 2008 Federal Cap Process? The AYP process is already difficult to replicate by school districts. The federal cap process conducted by TEA will make it even more challenging for districts to anticipate their 2008 AYP status. The passing standards for TAKS-M will not be determined until August 2008. Districts must determine their campus rankings based on local criteria. TEA is not able to provide any AYP-based assessment results that will assist in the districts ranking decision.

16. 16 Review of the TEASE 2008 Campus Priority List Application

17. 17 Review of the TEASE 2008 Campus Priority List Application The application will be available on Tuesday, May 27th on the Texas Education Agency Secure Environment (TEASE) Accountability Website. Deadline for school districts to submit modified campus rankings is Thursday, July 10th at 5:00 p.m. It is strongly recommended that only one person from the district is designated to submit the modified campus ranking.

18. 18 How the Federal Cap Works

19. 19 How the Federal Cap Works The entire scope of the Federal Cap Process will be reviewed in the following slides. The examples shown are based on the sample data used in the April 24, 2008 TETN session (event number 26455) that demonstrated how the campus ranking determines which proficient results are selected.

20. 20 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) This segment of the TETN session will cover: Review of 1% Cap Review of 2% Cap Campus Rankings AYP Outcome Comparison: Subject meets AYP (standard) Campuses and District Not Evaluated for AYP Outcome Scenarios for TAKS-M Student Selection Process Exceeding the Statewide Cap and Recapture

21. 21 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) The AYP Federal Caps on Proficient results are based on federal regulations. For the Reading Performance results, School District SOMEWHERE ISD will have the following caps: 1% Federal Cap Limit = 1,000 x.01 = 10.0 = 10 2% Federal Cap Limit = 1,000 x.02 = 20.0 = 20 The overall 3% cap limit for Reading is the 1% limit plus the 2% limit, or 10 + 20 = 30.

22. 22 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Assume the following test takers for a district… Reading Assessments Grades 3 – 8 & 10

23. 23 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) The TAKS-M and TAKS-Alt results exceed the federal limit. Reading Performance: 1% Federal Cap Limit = 10 2% Federal Cap Limit = 20

24. 24 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Comparing the number of proficient results to the federal cap limits, 4 students taking TAKS-Alt, and 4 students taking TAKS-M must be reclassified to non- proficient for AYP purposes only. For the 1% federal cap process, ten students will be selected randomly from TAKS-Alt proficient results, and used for campus, district, and state AYP calculations only.

25. 25 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Review of the 1% Cap Students are selected randomly from TAKS-Alt proficient results. Exceptions to the 1% cap will be processed prior to the Preliminary AYP Release in October 2008 for: School districts registered with the TEA Special Education Residential Facilities Tracking System (RF Tracker) for school year 2007-08. School districts included in the 2007-2008 Directory for Services for the Deaf in Texas, Regional Day School Programs for the Deaf (RDSPD).

26. 26 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Recapture Under federal regulation, the state as a whole cannot exceed either the 1% cap or the 3% cap under any circumstances. 1% Federal Cap Recapture If the state exceeds the 1% cap, a recapture process on the TAKS-Alt student proficient results will be initiated. Final 3% (1% + 2%) Federal Cap Recapture If the state exceeds the 3% cap, a recapture process on the TAKS-M student proficient results will be initiated.

27. 27 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) 1% Federal Cap Recapture If the state exceeds the 1% cap, a recapture process will be initiated. TAKS-Alt student proficient results are randomly selected until the statewide 1% cap is reached. All proficient results selected during the recapture process will be counted as non-proficient in all AYP calculations for campus, district, and state level results. After completion of the 1% cap process including the confirmation of the statewide limit, we begin processing the 2% cap.

28. 28 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Review of the 2% Federal Cap Option 6: Combination Method Step 1) TEA prioritizes campuses by grades served and proportion of students with disabilities enrolled. School districts have the opportunity to review and/or modify the campus rankings. Step 2) Student results are selected in order to maximize the number of campuses that Meet AYP beginning with the campuses assigned the highest priority.

29. 29 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Step 1) TEA prioritizes campuses. TEA provides a list of campus rankings that districts may accept as the default campus ranking. Default Campus Ranking lists are based on Fall 2007 PEIMS information for each campus. The lists are sorted by: 1 st Sort: School Type (Secondary, Both, Middle, Elem.) 2 nd Sort: Highest Grade Served on the Campus 3 rd Sort: Percent of Students served by Special Education of Total Enrolled on the campus These values are found on the campus AEIS reports.

30. 30 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Step 1) TEA provides a list of campus rankings based on 2007 Fall PEIMS data that will match the data reported on 2008 AEIS Reports. 1 st Sort Order 2 nd Sort Order 3 rd Sort Order

31. 31 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Step 1) TEA prioritizes campuses and school districts then have the opportunity to modify their campus ranking. Tuesday, May 27 th 2008 Campus Priority List for 2% Federal Cap available on the Texas Education Agency Secure Environment (TEASE) Accountability Website. Thursday, July 10 th 5:00 p.m. Deadline for school districts to submit modified campus rankings.

32. 32 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Step 1) TEA prioritizes campuses and school districts then have the opportunity to modify their campus ranking. School districts that have not provided campus ranking changes by 5:00 p.m. on July 10, 2008, agree to accept the TEA Default Campus Ranking for evaluating the 2008 AYP 2% federal cap.

33. 33 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Step 2) Student results are selected in order to maximize the number of campuses that Meet AYP beginning with the campuses assigned the highest priority. TEA conducts the process for the selection of students for the federal cap. Due to the random selection of students as a final step, it is very difficult for school districts to replicate the process to select students for inclusion in the federal cap.

34. 34 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Step 2) TEA selects student results. The entire scope of Step 2 of the TEA 2% Federal Cap Process includes: AYP Outcome Comparison Student Selection Process Exceeding the Statewide Cap and Recapture

35. 35 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) AYP Outcome Comparisons Guidelines for determining the campus or district outcomes: The AYP Subject indicators (Reading and Mathematics) are evaluated separately due to the School Improvement Program (SIP) criteria that a campus or district that Missed AYP in the same indicator advances in SIP identification. The AYP Reading and Mathematics outcomes include the results of the Performance and Participation components for each subject (if a subject does not meet the Participation criteria, its outcome is Missed AYP).

36. 36 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) AYP Outcome Comparisons (continued) The AYP Reading and Mathematics indicator outcomes incorporate performance accountability subset, minimum size criteria, performance safe harbor and all other calculations used to evaluate AYP. However, the outcome of the AYP Other indicator is not considered in the federal cap process. The separate indicator outcomes are referred to asSubject meets AYP or Subject missed AYP.

37. 37 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) AYP Outcome Comparisons (continued) Students are selected from a given campus based on a comparison of two basic AYP scenarios. The TAKS-M student results that meet the student passing standard, or the pool of proficient results evaluated for the federal cap, are the only results changed in each scenario The results of the completed 1% cap are included in each of the scenarios

38. 38 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) 2% Federal Cap Outcome Scenarios Scenario 1: All TAKS-M proficient student results are assigned non-proficient (failing). Scenario 2: All TAKS-M proficient student results remain proficient (passing). Every possible combination of these scenarios is evaluated. These results require the TAKS-M passing standard that will be determined in Summer 2008.

39. 39 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) 2% Federal Cap Outcome Scenarios

40. 40 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) 2% Federal Cap Outcome Scenarios The scenarios are compared to determine if students are needed for the s ubject to meet AYP Group A: The subject already meets AYP standards even though all TAKS-M passing student results are considered non-proficient (failing). Group C: The subject continues to miss AYP standards even if all TAKS-M passing student results remain proficient (passing).

41. 41 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) 2% Federal Cap Outcome Scenarios Group B: Proficient (passing) TAKS-M student results help the subject meet AYP standards. Only campuses identified in Group B in the table of outcome comparisons will receive the proficient student results that are necessary for the subject to meet AYP. Students are not selected from a campus with an AYP outcome of Not Evaluated.

42. 42 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) AYP Outcome Comparisons (continued) Note that the AYP Scenarios used for the federal cap process are not the same as the AYP Source Data Table results. The AYP Source Data Table will continue to be provided to school districts to show AYP performance results without the application of the federal 1% and 2% caps.

43. 43 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Student Selection Process The general steps to select proficient results are: 1. Begin with the campus ranked with the highest priority. 2. Determine the number and type of students needed to Meet AYP in Reading. 3. Select proficient results for only the number needed to Meet AYP in Reading for AYP Data Table results. 4. Continue with the campus ranked 2 nd in priority. 5. After all campuses are completed, select remaining students to help the district Meet AYP up to the federal cap.

44. 44 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Student Selection Process Stages The selection process can also be described in three stages: I.Students are selected beginning with the first campus in the campus ranking to the extent needed for the campus subject to meet AYP. II.If additional proficient students can be included under the federal cap, students are selected to the extent needed for the district subject to meet AYP. III.If additional proficient students can be included under the federal cap, students are selected randomly up to the federal cap limit.

45. 45 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Student Selection Process - STAGE I Based on the modified campus ranking provided by the district:

46. 46 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Student Selection Process - STAGE I (continued) The process begins with the first campus in the campus ranking, The High School. The AYP Outcome comparison has already been completed and the campus was found in Group B.

47. 47 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Based on the number and type of students needed to Meet AYP for all Student Groups… The results shown are from Outcome Scenario # 1: All TAKS-M passing student results assigned failing.

48. 48 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Student Selection Process - STAGE I (continued) The High School needed 4 Economically Disadvantaged students and 1 Special Education student.

49. 49 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Select only students needed to Meet AYP in Reading from the available pool of TAKS-M proficient results: and student criteria that help Meet AYP Sorted by Priority Campus

50. 50 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Select only students needed to Meet AYP in Reading: Only 4 students are selected for Campus 001, … … and selected students contribute to other AYP student groups.

51. 51 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Select only students needed to Meet AYP in Reading: Some students will not be selected and may be listed as Exceeders on AYP Student Lists

52. 52 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Select only students needed to Meet AYP in Reading, and update AYP Data Table results.

53. 53 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Student Selection Process - STAGE I (continued) The student selection process continues to the next campus in the ranking, until Stage I of the process is complete. The following campuses were evaluated during the first stage of the process:

54. 54 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Student Selection Process - STAGE I (continued) The AYP Outcome Comparisons are the basis for Stage I of the student selection process.

55. 55 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Stage I of the student selection process is complete when all campuses in the ranking have been processed or until the federal cap limit is reached. Student Selection Process - STAGE II If additional proficient students can be included under the federal cap, students are selected to the extent needed for the district subject to meet AYP. AYP Outcome Comparison is also evaluated for the school district.

56. 56 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Student Selection Process - STAGE II In this example, no students were selected for the school district. The AYP Outcome Comparison is also evaluated for the school district and the district was found in Group A.

57. 57 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Stage II district selection is complete. Student Selection Process - STAGE III If additional proficient students can be included under the federal cap, students are selected randomly up to the federal cap limit. In this example, the remaining students in the TAKS-M passing student results pool are selected up to the federal cap limit.

58. 58 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Remaining students are selected randomly from the unselected students. Random selection of 16 more students from campuses that Meet AYP or will never Meet AYP.

59. 59 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) A final summary of the proficient student results selected:

60. 60 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Recapture Under federal regulation, the state as a whole cannot exceed either the 1% cap or the 3% cap under any circumstances. Final 3% (1% + 2%) Federal Cap Recapture If the state exceeds the 3% cap, a recapture process will be initiated. TAKS-M student proficient results are randomly selected until the statewide 3% cap is reached. All proficient results selected during the recapture process will be counted as non-proficient in all AYP calculations for campus, district, and state level results.

61. 61 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Additional considerations related to the 1% and 2% Federal Caps on 2008 AYP Districts cannot exceed the 1% cap for TAKS-Alt. However, if they do not fully use the 1% cap, then districts can exceed the 2% cap (up to 3%). School districts may not Meet AYP after the federal cap process since priority is given to the campuses meeting AYP. Campuses given a higher priority for the selection of students may require all available proficient student results.

62. 62 How the Federal Cap Works (continued) Appeals to the 1% and 2% Federal Caps on 2008 AYP Appeals to the campus ranking or 2008 federal cap process will not be considered. Exceptions to the 1% cap for Other Circumstances will continue to be considered during the 2008 AYP Appeal period.

63. 63 Accountability Resources For more information on the 1% and 2% federal caps, see the 2008 AYP Guide, available in June, 2008 and accessible at www.tea.state.tx.us/ayp.www.tea.state.tx.us/ayp A Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) will be maintained on the 2008 AYP website at http://www.tea.state.tx.us/ayp/2008/index.html. http://www.tea.state.tx.us/ayp/2008/index.html Email the Division of Performance Reporting at performance.reporting@tea.state.tx.us. performance.reporting@tea.state.tx.us Phone the Division of Performance Reporting at (512) 463-9704.