1. Presidential elections

2. How often? Fixed term elections every 4 years 2-term limit for individual president According to Article II the election should be held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November i.e. between 2 nd -8 th November

3. 4 stages of presidential elections 1. Primaries and caucuses – Jan.-early June of election year 2. National party conventions – August/September 3. General election campaign – September/November 4. Election Day and Electoral College – 2 nd -8 th November

4. What does it take to become president? What are the constitutional requirements? Naturally born American citizen Minimum 35 years old Residential qualification of 14 years Not having served more than 2 terms

5. Political experience Presidential candidates are often Vice Presidents, State governors or Senators. Of the 16 politicians nominated as presidential candidates in the last 11 elections up to 2008 9 have been Senators, 6 were Vice Presidents and 5 were governors What about Obama? How important is political experience?

6. Major party endorsement Vital to be chosen as candidate for one of 2 major parties Third party candidates have little chance e.g. Ross Perot (1992 and 1996)

7. Personal characteristics How many black candidates have there been? How many Senators or State Governors are women? Does it help to be married? Does it help to be faithful if you are married? What other personal characteristics are important?

8. Ability to raise large sums of money Realistic candidates have to raise huge sums of money before the primaries e.g. in 2007 Clinton raised $90m, Obama $70m and McCain $28m This money comes from individuals and groups and there are strict rules Only billionaires like Ross Perot can afford to finance campaigns out of their own pockets

9. Effective organisation During primaries the candidates do not have their party organisation behind them do they have to set up their own team This has to be done both nationally and in each state. This needs time, money and ORGANISATION One of the major reasons why Clinton lost the primary is due to poor organisation

10. Oratorical skills and being telegenic Which presidents had it and which didn’t?? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOR aebYWDwk&NR=1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOR aebYWDwk&NR=1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOF dTQAaSBs&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOF dTQAaSBs&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wj WDrTXMgF8

11. Sound and relevant policies Clinton ‘the economy, stupid’ McCain – campaign finance reform Obama?

12. THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY This is the period between when the candidates declare an intention to run for the presidency and the first contests of the primary season It is called invisible because much of what occurs cannot actually be seen In the last election the first candidate declared himself in December 2006 (the election was Nov. 2008). Clinton announced in Jan 2007, Obama in Feb and McCain in April First primary elections were in Jan 2008

13. THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY It is important during this period for the candidate to gain NAME RECOGNITION, raise MONEY and arrange a state-based ORGANISATION In the past there has been a strong correlation between candidates who have won the invisible primary and those who go on to win the presidential nomination. Support for candidates is usually expressed through opinion polls. Often in head to head match ups

14. What can you do to win an invisible primary? 1. GET A MENTION IN THE MEDIA Try to get in the national ‘papers Have an article written about you in a weekly like Time or Newsweek Get an in-depth interview on tv e.g. The News Hour with Jim Lehrer

15. What can you do to win an invisible primary? 2. TELEVISED DEBATES There were 16 televised debates between Democratic candidates and 12 between Republican candidates On 30 th October Clinton fumbled over a question on illegal immigration immigrantshttp://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=-eIKC3SQ_AA

16. 3. STATE SPECIAL EVENTS Iowa Straw Poll – A Republican fund-raising dinner. Not a good predictor though Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner – Democratic fund-raiser. Obama made an impressive speech http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tydfsfSQi Yc

17. 4. Visits to key states e.g. Iowa and New Hampshire 5. CANDIDATES PUBLISH BOOKS 6. MONEY RAISING 1999 Elizabeth Dole ended her presidential bid during invisible primary claiming the money had become the message Al Gore scared off challengers for the 2000 Democratic nomination because of huge amounts of money raised

18. The 2008 Invisible primary The 2008 race was littered with ‘firsts’ First election since 1952 where neither incumbent president nor incumbent vice-president was a candidate Lack of incumbents led to a larger field of candidates By Jan. 2008 were 16 serious candidates

19. Democratic presidential candidates Jo Biden – US Senator since 1973 Hillary Clinton – US Senator since 2001 Christopher Dodd – US Senator since 1981 John Edwards – US Senator (1969-2005) Mike Gravel – US Senator (1969-81) Dennis Kucnich – US Representative snce 1997 Barack Obama – US Senator since 2005 Bill Richardson – Governor New Mexico since 2003

20. Republican presidential candidates 2008 Sam Brownback – US Senator since 1996 Rudolph Guiliani – Mayor New York 1994-2001 Mike Huckabee – Governor Arkansas 1996-2007 Duncan Hunter – US Representative since 1981 John McCain – US Senator since 1987 Ron Paul – US Representative snce 1997 Mitt Romney – Governor Massachusetts 2003-7 Fred Thompson – US Senator 1994-2003

21. Who had the big mo? What factors do you think led to Clinton having a 28 point lead over Obama throughout 2007? Who was the front runner for the Republicans during the invisible primary?

22. Who won the money primary? During 2007 Clinton raised more money than Obama in 10 out of the 12 months. She raised $154m to Obama’s $129m In the Republican race it was Romney who raised most money. He raised $112m to Guiliani’s $79m and McCain’s 54m

23. How important is the invisible primary? Convention says it is the most important part of the nomination i.e. that whoever is ahead at the close of the invisible primary will win In 2007 Clinton and Giuliani were ahead in the opinion polls and yet neither ended up as their party’s presidential nominee